Mondays can be a bit wonky, and so can a DFS lineup. Today is no exception. The build will be a little off format due to salary constraints brought on by unsavory matchups and slate size. As usual, we will target the top SP, along with a value SP, but those will be paired with a few value batters and a star-studded stack. We have a tiny six-game slate on the docket today, with the first games not until the evening. The weather looks like it will cooperate, and there should be no cause for concern. So let’s get to this!
Top SP: Joe Musgrove, SD ($10,200 DK, 10,500 FD) vs MIL
The top arm on the slate is Joe Musgrove, mainly due to his high strikeout upside. He touts a 35.8 K-rate and a microscopic 0.47 ERA. One of the reasons he can keep the earned runs off the board is his 57.5% ground ball rate and tiny 3.0 BB rate. He has found maximum success by increasing his secondary offerings and decreasing the number of times the four-seam fastball comes out. He is playing with house money in terms of the matchup on the day. At the plate, Milwaukee strikes out around a quarter of the time and does very little when making contact (.118 ISO, .282 wOBA, and 73 wRC+).
Value SP: Kevin Gausman, SF ($6,600 DK, $8,500 FD) at PHI
Sometimes you see these salaries and wonder, what is wrong with the computers? Today is that day. In no way, shape, or form should Kevin Gausman be this inexpensive on DraftKings. He is pricing below starting pitchers like Chase Anderson and Josh Fleming, who can’t come close to the strike-out upside of Gausman. Sure, the matchup is a bit tougher, but getting a big discount in salary will come in handy later. Scoop up Gausman, especially in DraftKings as your SP2.
Honorable Mention: Danny Duffy, ($7,000 DK, $8,300 FD) at TB.
Value Batter: 1B Brandon Belt, SF ($3,400 DK, $2,300 FD) at PHI
Brandon Belt has been platooned a ton this year, which is not a bad thing for today’s slate. He faces off against right-handed pitcher Chase Anderson, giving up quite a bit of loud contact (11.5% barrel%). We are not just picking on Anderson; Belt has been a terror to right-handed pitchers throughout his career. In fact, he showcases boisterous stats against RHP. In a little over 2,700 at-bats, Belt has a .200 ISO and .469 SLG%. When you put him up against all others in terms of wRC+, he is 28% better than the league average.
Value Batter: 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, KC ($3,100 DK, $2,200 FD) vs. TB
Since starting the season 0-for-16, Hunter Dozier is coming alive. In his last five games, he is hitting .295 but looking for his first HR. Today could be that “get-right” day that takes a leap of faith from us. Against LHP, Dozier has shown he can put up a .281/.370/.545 slash line with a .264 ISO, as seen in 2019’s 121 at-bat mastery. And even with a 2020 scuffle, he still showcases a .125 ISO and slightly above-league average wRC+. Trust me, save the salary at 3B and focus the big picture on your lineup as a whole.
Value Batter: 2B/3B Mike Brosseau, TB ($3,600 DK, $2,500 FD) at KC
The Tampa Bay Rays are facing left-handed veteran Danny Duffy. I will let you in on a little secret; this means you plug Mike Brosseau into your lineup ASAP. Allow me to drops some of his stats for annihilating southpaws. His career slash line vs. LHP is .312/.356/.568 with a .924 OPS. When he makes contact, there is a 44.7% chance it’s a flyball and a 40.4% chance it’s his at 95-mph or greater. Great outcomes happen when batters hit flyballs over 95-mph. He has a reasonable price for the slate, and you can plug him in at 2B, which is rarely a position to find HR upside.
Top Stack: Los Angeles Angels vs. TEX (RHP Kohei Arihara)
A good rule of thumb is never to stack more than four batters from the same team in a smaller slate. Personally, I like to keep it to three batters on a slate of this size. Mainly because you want to spread the plays over a few different games, fewer teams mean there is a less likely chance one will go off for double-digit runs.
We have been very patient by grabbing value bats and saving up payroll to get our stack. The reason being, we are going to roster Mike Trout, Jared Walsh, and everyone’s favorite, Shohei Ohtani. It feels good just seeing it all stacked in your lineup. It is a heavy investment on one team for the slate, but it will bear fruits. Outside the fact that all three combine for 12 HR and 67 runs+RBI through 13 games, they get the easiest opponent on the day.
We are definitely picking on Kohei Arihara today. There are a few reasons to do so, and the first is he doesn’t strike anyone out. A 12.3% K-rate is the lowest of the day. Another great reason is he relies heavily on contact to get outs. That is a terrible thing for pitchers in DFS. Balls in play can do a ton, especially when Arihara has a 92% Z-contact% and 14.6% barrel rate. On paper, the score looks like there will be a crooked number for the Angels. Stack against it!
Honorable Mentions: LAD at SEA (Sheffield), STL at WAS (Ross).
Featured image by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)