DFS Daily Breakdown – September 5

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Sunday.

Happy Labor Day Weekend! Today we get a 10-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel to go along with our holiday festivities. As of this writing, there’s only a chance of showers in the Mets/Nationals and Orioles/Yankees games, but it doesn’t look to be anything threatening. Let’s take a look at the implied run totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

This slate features six heavy favorites (favored by one run or more), out of the eight games with lines. There are nine teams with an implied total north of 5.0, although no one comes close to touching the Yankees at 6.5 runs. They’ll likely be our main stack. There are eight teams with an implied total of 4.1 runs or below. This should give us plenty of options to choose from for both hitting and pitching. Let’s take a look at some options for our pitchers, and then we’ll check out our stacks.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

While I love when we have plenty of options in consideration for our pitchers, sometimes it is tough to make the ultimate decision on who to start. Hopefully, the numbers will help narrow down our choices so that we don’t have to make a choice as tough as Sophie’s.

Pitching Matchups

Decisions, decisions. Right off the bat, I’m going to fade Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, and Taijuan Walker. While their opponents have lower implied totals, the current form of the offenses scares me off compared to our other options. However, because of his strikeout rate, Ray is a really nice GPP option.

My SP1 decision comes down to Corbin Burnes ($9,700 DK, $11,500 FD) versus Dylan Cease ($9,400 DK, $9,300 FD). Both are in decent situations with high strikeout rates. My slight lean is to Cease just due to the Royals’ bottom-dwelling status this week.

We have three options that I really like for our SP2 – Luis Patiño ($8,200 DK, $7,900 FD), Corey Kluber ($8,600 DK, $8,600 FD), and Zach Davies ($6,200 DK, $7,400 FD). Of the three, I’m leaning Patiño and Kluber over Davies strictly due to the strikeout rate. Kluber has a slight edge in that the Yankees are -320 favorites, giving him a decent chance at earning the win today.

 

Hitter Stacks

 

As I mentioned earlier, the Yankees and their 6.5 implied run total are going to be the focus of my main stack. Most of the top-end bats are properly priced up, but Luke Voit ($4,000 DK, $3,300 FD), DJ LeMahieu ($4,400 DK, $3,600 FD), and Gleyber Torres ($3,300 DK, $3,000 FD) offer some salary relief. Let’s take a look at our other hitting options today:

Hitting Matchups

From this list, the only team I’m content with fully passing on is the Cubs. Are you a glass-half-empty or half-full kind of person? If you’re a pessimist, you might say, “We can’t stack the remaining seven options. Whereas, if you’re an optimist, you’d say, “Let’s find the best values/plays and pull them from each team.” That’s how I’m going into this. The more teams we like, the more good options we have. I’m going to play the Yankees hitters, but having this many options also provides you with the opportunity to fade them in GPPs.

From the Mets, Jonathan Villar ($4,000 DK, $2,800 FD) is one of my favorite plays on the day. Over the last seven days, he’s batting over .600 against righties and is slated to lead off. Villar also carries positional flexibility, so you can slot him at 2B or 3B on DK and 2B, 3B, or SS on FD.

In Boston, Alex Verdugo ($3,900 DK, $3,200 FD) has been crushing and is slated to bat clean-up. Over the last week, he’s batting .375 against righties and should be in line for RBI opportunities at a discount price.

In Tampa, Joey Wendle ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD) and gulp Kevin Keirmaier ($2,400 DK, $2,200 FD) have been handling their business in the bottom half of the Rays’ lineup. Both come at a discount, which makes it easy to pair them with Wander Franco ($5,700 DK, $4,200 FD) to round out a mini-stack.

You’ll have to keep an eye on the Cincinnati lineup, but Eugenio Suárez ($4,300 DK, $3,100 FD) is currently streaking. Lord knows when he gets hot, you have to hop on board. The Reds also offer some value in Max Schrock ($2,600 DK, $2,000 FD), albeit at the bottom of their lineup.

Luis Urías ($3,900 DK, $2,400 FD) has been vaulted to the top of the Brewers lineup and responded with another multi-hit game last night. Urías is currently on a six-game hit streak and getting a hot-leadoff man priced below $4k is a great value.

Keep in mind, I really only touched on the cheaper/value players from these teams. If you’re looking to stack a particular team, pair the value player with a stud and let the good times roll.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate. Keep in mind, this is being written well before lock. Make sure you check lineups once they’re posted to find the additional value that opens up.

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:

Sample Cash Game Lineup

Some of the pivots I thought about with this lineup were Kluber to Patiño and Judge to Stanton. Both moves would save a little cash to pay up elsewhere like our third outfielder.

Good luck today!

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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