Happy Wednesday! Today’s main slate is a bit of a wonky one. FanDuel included two extra games to seven, while DraftKings elected for a later start with only five games. So, the breakdown will be a slight bit different. Additionally, what’s going to drive us bonkers is the weather implications. There’s rain predicted for three matchups (CHC@CIN, ATL@PHI, and BOS@CHW). Yikes!
However, baseball is a high variance game, and today’s as good as any to try something new. Good luck!
Implied Run Totals (IRT)
- MIA @ TBR – The Marlins are reasonably priced but get a stricter matchup against Rasmussen, and I prefer to use them as one-offs than a full-stack. The Rays should be a priority team to stack because they’re facing an inexperienced SP at home.
- CHC @ CIN – Luis Castillo is still dominating RHB, making the Cubs an avoid (outside of Rafael Ortega). On the other side, the Reds look like a terrific stack option in FanDuel.
- BAL @ NYY – This matchup has two suspect SPs. The Orioles are cheap, and the Yankees will be chalky. If you choose to go either route, build the rest of your lineup accordingly. Also, Giancarlo Stanton is likely unavailable.
- ATL @ PHI – Both offenses showcase plenty of firepower to make stacks. However, they face off against SPs that can lock down a game. In this case, I’d be looking to grab one-offs like Kyle Schwarber before making a full-stack.
- CLE @ HOU – Houston looks poised for a big day; stack away! Cleveland is not a good option as they face off against a pitcher that can strike batters out in a hurry but can get wild with command. Try to use cheaper one-off options instead of stacking.
- BOS @ CHW – I don’t want to build a stack against Lucas Giolito, so we’ll pass there and only grab one-offs in Boston. The White Sox are an excellent stack option since they’ve always hit lefties well.
- TEX @ LAA – The Ranger’s offense has sputtered through the early part of the season, and facing Reid Detmers may not help. However, if you want to get contrarian, Detmers can struggle vs. RHB and has some power from the right side. The Angels have one of the highest IRT on the slate, and they’ll be a chalkier stack but probably worth it on a small slate.
- Lucas Giolito gets one of the stricter matchups against a red-hot Boston offense. However, strikeouts are king in DFS, and Gioltio leads the way by a bit of margin. Boston draws a 3.5 IRT, and a blow-up doesn’t look likely. Furthermore, he’s punching out batters from both sides over a 28% clip. Sure, he’s pricey, but the offenses look pretty cheap, too as well.
- Cristian Javier is a bit over-priced because the slate is so tiny. There is a slight risk added because Cleveland has a few batters that know how to run pitch counts up and take a walk. However, I could see his roster% down a significant amount since he’s only $500 less than Giolito. He could be a solid high-priced option if you want to be different than the Giolito lineups.
- Reid Detmers is one of the highest-priced SPs on the slate, and this is the highest price tag on the season. This could draw some of the roster% away from him, much like Javier. Although, he’s squaring off against a Texas squad that strikes out over 23% of the time and holds a lousy 89 wRC+. This could be a nice GPP spot for Detmers to pay off the inflated salary.
- Luis Castillo isn’t the bonafide ace from a few years ago, but he’s got plenty in his favor today. First, the Cub’s offense is anemic at times and is a top-five strikeout rate (24.5% K-rate). When they do make contact, Castillo’s 54.3% groundball rate should make it difficult for them to rally. Sure, the ballpark will be a challenge, but the matchup is easy.
- The Astros draw one of the higher IRT on the slate. That’ll make them a bit more chalky than I’d like, but given the size of the slate, it should be OK today. Cal Quantrill is a solid pitcher, but he’s struggled in the early goings of 2022, specifically against left-handed bats. Both sides of the plate haven’t crushed Quantrill for power, but lefties are walking nearly more than striking out. Lastly, this game is in a dome with less than favorable weather in many remaining matchups. We’ll take the security of stacking in this one.
- Astros’ Core Stack Targets: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker.
- Anytime the slate is smaller, we can look at intangibles like the park factors. In this case, Great American Ballpark is the target, and the tiny dimensions have played up the HRs. Additionally, Kyle Hendricks has been pretty wishy-washy this season. He’s not striking out batters from either side of the plate over 20% of the time, and LHBs showcase a .270 ISO. Grab your left-handed bats and players that mash from the Reds.
- Reds’ Core Stack Targets: Joey Votto, Tyler Stephenson, and Mike Moustakas.
Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the value hitters are players under $3500 on DK and under $3300 on FD—just a step below my cash players. Use these players to smash into your lineup when you need to save some salary.