DFS Daily Breakdown – July 28

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Hump Day! Today, we get an 11-game main slate on DraftKings, while FanDuel features 10 games. The odd man out is the second game of the seven-inning doubleheader between Toronto and Boston. As of this writing, there don’t appear to be any weather issues in the forecast. Let’s take a look at the Implied Run Totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

We have just three teams with implied totals below 4.0 runs, which means finding an SP2 might be a little tricky. On the flip side, there are five teams with implied totals of 4.9 runs or more. The Angels and White Sox, at 5.7 and 5.5 runs, respectively, have the highest totals and will likely be part of our main stacks. Let’s take a look at our pitching options to see if we can get anyone to pop for our cash game lineups.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

With just three teams sporting implied totals below 4.0, I’m expanding my horizons some to see if we can find a solid SP2 candidate. I threw Adrian Houser into consideration as well because who doesn’t want to pick on the Pirates? Let’s break down the matchups:

Pitching Matchups (Last 30 Days)

This is going to be a little backward, but I’m going to first lock in Andrew Heaney ($7,400 DK, $7,600 FD) as my SP2. He has a great matchup against the Rockies team outside of Coors. While I don’t love their low, low strikeout rate over the last 30 days, Heaney’s ability to miss bats will keep the Rockies off balance. Earlier this year, Heaney was having some issues with allowing the long ball, but he’s now allowed just one homer in his last three starts.

Of our higher-priced options, I’m immediately deeming Walker Buehler ($10,500 DK, $11,500 FD) as a GPP option. The Giants offense has been legit all year, and with three other options, I’m okay with not risking my cash game life against one of the top offenses over the last 30 days. That being said, because of his pedigree and strikeout upside, I’m definitely making a Buehler lineup.

I’m pretty torn between Zack Wheeler ($10,300 DK, $10,600 FD) and Lucas Giolito ($9,800 DK, $9,200 FD) for my SP1 today. Both have decent matchups and decent strikeout upside. The tie-breaker for me currently (until lineups are released) is their price. If I can save some cash on a similar player, I’m doing it.

If we removed the names/teams from this table and just looked at the numbers, Michael Wacha ($7,900 DK, $6,800 FD) is really intriguing. However, the numbers over the last 30 days are when the Yankees lineup was a shell of itself while dealing with a COVID outbreak. Even though I’m a little tempted, once lineups are released, and I see Judge and Stanton towards the top of the lineup, Wacha will get the kibosh.

 

Hitter Stacks

 

Two teams are likely going to be in consideration for my main stack—White Sox and Angels. Let’s check out the Phillies, Orioles, and Brewers’ matchups also to see if one of those should take over instead:

Hitting Matchups (Last 30 Days)

With the Pirates not currently having a projected starter, I threw both potential matchups for the Brewers. As you can see, if they face a lefty, we’re fading. However, if they face a righty, this lineup is filled with value bats that we can choose from. Sadly, Christian Yelich tested positive for COVID, or else the Brewers might’ve contended to be my top stack if they’re facing a righty.

It’s pretty wild that if we removed the names of the teams from this list that the Orioles would stand out as having the best matchup. From the O’s, I really like Cedric Mullins ($4,600 DK, $3,100 FD) and Trey Mancini ($4,900 DK, $3,500 FD), but if a value is your preference, we can head to Ramón Urias ($3,300 DK, $2,300 FD) or Austin Hays ($2,900 DK, $2,500 FD).

I want to like the Angels so much, but the fact of the matter is this lineup is just so bad. And the hitters that I legit like, Shohei Ohtani ($6,400 DK, $4,400 FD), Max Stassi ($4,600 DK, $2,800 FD), and David Fletcher ($4,900 DK, $2,900 FD) are all priced up pretty well. I might stick to Ohtani and Justin Upton ($3,700 DK, $2,700 FD) for my Angels exposure.

While the team numbers for the White Sox do not look great, there are a handful of players that I can get on board with for our main stack. Tim Anderson ($5,500 DK, $3,700 FD) always crushes lefties. We also have some solid value options in Andrew Vaughn ($2,800 DK, $2,900 FD) and Eloy Jiménez ($2,800 DK, $3,300 FD).

Normally, I’m a 5-man main stack/3-man secondary stack kind of guy, but today I think I’m planning on ending up with a 3/3/2 Frankenstein lineup.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate. I’m taking a page out of my colleague Dave Swan’s (@davithius) book and provided my favorite value play from each position:

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:

Cash Game Lineup

The thing I learned from building this lineup is that loving Ohtani ruins my ability to get Mancini or Tellez into my lineup.

Good luck today!

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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