DFS Daily Breakdown – July 18

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Sunday.

Happy Sunday! Today, DraftKings features a 10-game main slate, while FanDuel has just nine games. The missing game is the early game of the Texas/Toronto doubleheader. On the weather front, it looks like there could be some pop-up rain in Atlanta, but it should hold off until after the game. Just something to keep an eye on. Let’s take a look at the Implied Run Totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

 

Implied Run Totals

 

From a stacks perspective, there are only three teams above a 5.0 implied run total – the Royals, Twins, and Tigers. These are not our “usual suspects”. On the pitching front though, we have 10 teams with an implied total of 4.1 runs or less. Let’s take a look at our wealth of pitching options to see if we can cut down our options in cash games.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

As I just mentioned, there are ten teams with an implied run total of 4.1 runs or less. This includes the Phillies (per FantasyLabs), even though a Marlins starter has yet to be announced. Let’s break down the matchups:

 

Pitching Matchups (Last 30 Days)

 

This is simultaneously what I wanted and not what I wanted. We’re certainly able to narrow down our options for cash games. We can remove Scherzer, Musgrove, Ryu, and Cueto due to tough offenses and/or low strikeout upside. I’m also opting out of Sonny Gray in his return from the IL. However, doing so removes most of our value when it comes to our SP2. Looks like it’ll be a “pay up for pitching kinda day”. I’m going to attempt to lock in Corbin Burnes ($10,000 DK, $11,200 FD) and Zack Wheeler ($9,500 DK, $11,000 FD) and hopefully, we’ll find some value in our stacks.

I am trying to keep an open mind on Hyun-Jin Ryu ($7,600 DK) against the Rangers, though. While the numbers over the last 30 days are quite scary, the Rangers normalized some against lefties heading into the All-Star break – 30% K%, 68 wRC+ over the last 14 days. On the year, they sit at a 92 wRC+ against lefties. Certainly not the juggernaut from our chart.

 

Hitter Stacks

 

Three teams are going to be my focus in stacks – Royals, Twins, and Tigers. The next highest implied total is the Orioles at 4.7. Let’s break down their matchups and see if one stands out over the other:

 

Hitting Matchups (Last 30 Days)

 

I guess we’re stacking the Tigers?? The good news is that the Tigers have some of that value we needed to fit in two high-end SPs. Miguel Cabrera ($2,700 DK, $2,600 FD) is going to anchor our stack. Over the last 30 days, he’s gone 11/21 against lefties and is super cheap. I would like to fit Jonathan Schoop ($5,200 DK, $3,200 FD) in, but he’s the one very expensive piece to this lineup and on DraftKings he’s only first base eligible. I’m looking to Eric Haase ($4,400 DK, $2,900 FD), Jake Rogers ($3,300 DK, $2,300 FD), and either Robbie Grossman ($3,200 DK, $3,200 FD), Zack Short ($2,900 DK, $2,100 FD), or Jeimer Candelario ($4,000 DK, $2,700 FD) to round out my stack. Update: as I was building my lineup, I noticed that Haase exited yesterday’s game after taking a pitch to the helmet. Apparently, he wanted to stay in the game, but be prepared to swap if he sits today.

Next up is the Twins, but Wily Peralta has been quite stingy. Peralta has gotten batters to induce ground balls at a near 60% rate, which has helped him keep the long ball in check. I still like some of the value bats for the Twins like Luis Arraez ($3,500 DK, $2,500 FD), Alex Kirilloff ($3,500 DK, $2,800 FD), and Trevor Larnach ($3,800 DK, $2,600 FD), and you can never go wrong with Nelson Cruz ($5,800 DK, $3,700 FD).

Finally, the Royals get the magic matchup against Matt Harvey. The only issue is the Royals as a team has been pretty bad against righties. I’ll likely be looking to the value bats towards the bottom of the lineup to fill in my remaining roster. Guys like Michael Taylor ($3,000 DK, $3,100 FD), Hunter Dozier ($3,300 DK, $3,100 FD), and Nicky Lopez ($3,500 DK, $3,500 FD) can help round out my value hitters.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. I’m taking a page out of my colleague Dave Swan’s (@davithius) book and provided my favorite value play from each position:

 

Value Plays

 

If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:

 

Cash Game Lineup

 

Good luck today!

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

  • Avatar Ryan says:

    Gotta say, thanks for showing your lineup at the end. Makes it easier to build a team. Win or lose i appreciate it.

    • Avatar Rich Holman says:

      No problem at all! We’re kinda working on the format of the DFS Breakdown, but I like throwing the lineup out there. The only issue is that I’m building it without confirmed lineups, so changes usually have to be made.

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