Happy Sunday! Today’s main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel features 9 games starting at 1:05. As of this writing, there’s currently a decent amount of rain forecasted in Boston for the Red Sox/Rangers game. That may be a good thing after the Rangers ruined Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez this weekend. UPDATE: As I was writing this, the Red Sox/Rangers game was PPD. There is also a 20% chance of storms in Baltimore for the Orioles/Atlanta game. Not as much of a risk to get postponed, but a delay could knock out a starting pitcher. Let’s take a look at the implied run totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!
We have a well-balanced slate today. Five teams with an implied total north of 5.0 runs and five teams below 4.0 runs. The Blue Jays and Red Sox lead the way with 6.2 and 6.1 runs, respectively. Because of the weather in Boston, I’m likely going to focus on targeting Toronto as my main stack. Let’s take a look at some options for our pitchers, and then we’ll check out our stacks.
While there are five teams with implied totals below 4.0 runs, one of them is the Rangers who I expect to get rained out. I’m still going to include the analysis just in case, but it’s not looking great. Let’s see if we can narrow down our options for our starting pitchers today:
Let’s start by saying the sample size for the Mariners and Tigers over the last seven days is pretty small, 67 and 61 plate appearances, respectively. That being said, I like picking on the form of both offenses. Detroit is striking out at a 26.9% rate over the last two weeks, which actually gives Steven Matz ($8,200 DK, $8,000 FD) one of the highest strikeout upsides on the slate. At his price, Matz looks like a really decent option as our SP2 and may be our only decent cheaper option if Nathan Eovaldi gets rained out.
Adam Wainwright ($9,300 DK, $9,600 FD) looks locked in as my SP1. The strikeout upside is somewhat limited, but to be honest, there isn’t a 30%+ pitcher on today’s slate. That being said, the Pirates have struck out at a 27% rate over the last two weeks against righties. When you combine that with the safety of Wainwright’s matchup, I love him as my SP1.
While I like Framber Valdez ($9,800 DK, $9,700 FD) today, he’s a clear step back from Wainwright. To me, that makes him either a GPP pivot off Wainwright or an expensive SP2 option. Spoiler alert – I wanted to leave some flexibility to pay up for our bats today, so I’m rolling with Matz as my SP2.
I decided to include the Reds and Cardinals in our hitting analysis at they have implied totals just short of 5.0. I’m hoping at the least we can find some value in their matchups. Let’s check out the matchups:
Facing Drew Hutchison, the Blue Jays are my favorite stack of the day. Coincidentally, they’re also heating up. I’m going to try and get three of the expensive bats into my lineup – Vladimir Guerrero, Jr ($6,200 DK, $4,400 FD), Bo Bichette ($4,900 DK, $3,700 FD), Marcus Semien ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD) and Teoscar Hernández ($5,200 DK, $3,900 FD). I also love that after you get past the top four, there’s plenty of value in the back end of the lineup. My favorite value is Corey Dickerson ($3,100 DK, $2,600 FD), who’s projected to bat fifth.
The Brewers have been significantly better against righties than lefties, making them an easy fade. That being said, Avisaíl García ($4,300 DK, $3,400 FD) and Luis Urías ($4,200 DK, $2,400 FD) look like decent one-offs. I’m also not actively looking to stack the Reds or Cardinals, but both teams can provide some value bats like Tyler O’Neill ($3,500 DK, $3,200 FD) and Kyle Farmer ($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD).
My second favorite stack is the Astros, who are both in good form and have a nice matchup. I really like the combination of Carlos Correa ($4,800 DK, $3,900 FD) and Yordan Álvarez ($5,500 DK, $3,900 FD) up top with value bats like Aledmys Díaz ($3,800 DK, $2,700 FD) and Jake Meyers ($2,500 DK, $2,700 FD) towards the bottom of the order. They likely take a back seat to the Blue Jays, making them a nice GPP play, but I’ll still try and fit a bat or two in my lineup.
Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate:
If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:
Good luck today!
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