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DFS Daily Breakdown – August 18

Rich breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Wednesday! Today’s main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel features 10 games starting at 7:05. As of this writing, this hot and humid day could lead to some pop-up storms, so keep an eye on the weather, specifically in the Angels/Tigers and Yankees/Red Sox games. There are a lot of fun pitching matchups today, so let’s take a look at the implied run totals for each game, and then we’ll dive into the slate!

Implied Run Totals

Talk about one extreme or the other. There are 20 teams total playing today. Seven of those teams have implied totals of 5.0 or above, while ten of them are at 4.2 or below. That should give us plenty of options to choose from on both the pitching and hitting sides. Let’s take a look at some options for our pitchers, and then we’ll check out our stacks.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

I know I mentioned that 10 teams had implied totals of 4.2 runs or below, but you’ll only find nine matchups below. That’s because the Dodgers don’t currently have a projected starting pitcher for today’s game against the Pirates. The Pirates have struggled against both lefties and righties of late, so as long as we get a projected starter that could go at least five innings, I’d be interested. Let’s see if we can narrow down our options for our starting pitchers today:

Pitching Matchups

I love it when we can just eliminate players from cash game contention. I’m happy to not try and pick on the hottest offenses in the league, so Jack Flaherty, Lance Lynn, and Ranger Suárez are out. I do like Flaherty and Lynn for GPP purposes, though.

Shohei Ohtani ($8,600 DK, $10,500 FD) is an easy lock for me today. He has a great matchup with strikeout upside but isn’t priced up like Flaherty and Lynn. I’m trying to convince myself that he won’t be super chalky, but I’m expecting him to be pretty heavily rostered. There are some other decent values on today’s slate, but none of them come with the upside the MVP candidate does.

As much as I love the matchup for Ryan Yarbrough ($8,000 DK, $7,000 FD), being that he’s the probable long reliever, I’m going to take a pass in cash games. I just don’t want to risk my lineup on the Rays making a last-minute decision where Yarbrough doesn’t come into the game. He also has a similar profile/matchup as Marco Gonzales ($7,600 DK, $8,200 FD), so why not just play the safer pitcher? Zack Greinke ($8,100 DK, $8,800 FD) is a similar low-K, decent matchup option.

On the higher-end side of things, I really like Freddy Peralta ($10,200 DK, $9,800 FD) today. The only potential downside to this matchup is that the Cardinals don’t strike out at a high clip. However, when Peralta faced them earlier this year, he had no problem mowing down eight Cardinals over seven one-hit innings. The only question for me becomes am I willing to pay up to Peralta given all of the value options?

 

Hitter Stacks

 

With there being plenty of options at starting pitching, I’m hoping one team’s stack stands out to help me make my decision of who’s going to be my SP2. We have seven teams with an implied total north of 5.0 runs, so let’s check out their matchups:

Hitting Matchups

Talk about an embarrassment of riches. How am I supposed to chose between the hottest offenses in baseball? It would be easy to just say, “Oh, the Red Sox face a decent starter. Let’s fade them.” But Yankees’ starter Andrew Heaney has allowed 15 earned runs over his last 15 innings thrown. During that time, he’s allowed eight (EIGHT!) homers. If I’m rolling Red Sox, I’m prioritizing the power righties in J.D. Martinez ($4,800 DK, $4,000 FD) and Hunter Renfroe ($4,100 DK, $3,500 FD).

I’m really trying to split hairs here and was going to eliminate the Dodgers, but Pirates’ starter JT Brubaker has been generous, giving up 13 earned runs and four homers over his last two starts. The legit tough part about the Dodgers is that they’re really priced up, so stacking them is nearly impossible.

Looking at the Astros, I really love that their number two-hitter, Michael Brantley ($3,900 DK, $3,200 FD), is really affordable. That makes stacking him with Carlos Correa ($4,600 DK, $3,500 FD) and Yordan Alvarez ($5,200 DK, $3,900 FD) very viable. It also helps that they face Mike Foltynewicz, who has a history of allowing multiple home runs a game.

Overall, I don’t think you can really go wrong with any of these teams. Just pick your favorite and roll to the cash. I’ll likely be mixing and matching a few from each team for my cash game lineup.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters on today’s slate:

Value Plays

If you stuck around, here’s the lineup I plan on using in cash games today:

Cash Game Lineup

Ultimately, I chose to pay up for bats instead of going for Peralta. One 3v3 that I like the allows you to get to pay up is Peralta/Crawford/Enrique over Gonzales/Turner/Lowe.

Good luck today!

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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