Happy Monday! Today brings us a nine-game slate with an upper-echelon tier of starting pitchers. Typically, that means the stacks will be pricey and make crunching salaries into our lineups complicated. So, my best advice is to grab a safe SP, an upside SP, and stack from one of the better teams. Please don’t get too cute about it, then fill in with value bats at a lower cost. Good luck!
Implied Run Totals
The first thing that jumps out is the enormous 6.22 Implied Run Total (IRT) for Toronto. Usually, when you see a dynamic offense with a higher projection, you have to make them a stack. If we have a 14- or 15-game slate, we could avoid them, but it doesn’t look like it today.
Next, I see Colorado pulling a 4.68 IRT outside of Coors Field, especially when you consider they have a 63 wRC+ against RHP on the road. However, they do play against an SP making his MLB debut. Either way, that number seems high, and we could find some value in this matchup.
In summation, there doesn’t look to be much scoring as a whole. Except for Toronto, San Diego, and presumably the Yankees, the rest of the field doesn’t look like it’ll go off for big point totals.
Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, and Robbie Ray make up the GREEN tier. This is all high-strikeout SPs with decent matchups that should work deep into games. I would feel very comfortable playing these options in a cash game and viable in GPPs today. With really not big salary savings between them, it’s a pick’em for you. I would guess Ray ends up with the highest roster% due to Burnes and Wheeler’s most recent struggles.
Julio Urías and Germán Márquez end up in the YELLOW tier. While both have massive strikeout potential, they come at slightly discounted salaries-Márquez especially. At the trade deadline, Atlanta may have added a significant amount of thump in the lineup, but also quite a bit of swing-and-miss. And on the other spectrum, the Rangers are a bottom-of-the-barrel offense. There literally is no team that walks less than they do, and strikes out 22% of the time. You can take the salary savings and find better stacks with this tier but expect they will be very chalky today-again, Márquez especially!
Nick Pivetta and Chris Paddack are last but not least in the RED tier. Both pitchers have their share of warts but harness the ability to put up big point totals. Pivetta gets to pitch in Tropicana, which is a very favorable park for SPs. However, the Rays are the top-scoring team in the MLB. And on the flip side, Paddack is returning from an IL stint and having a dreadful year. If he can pile up enough Ks against a lackluster offense, the salary savings will be huge. Let’s just hope he gets enough pitches today. Either of these SPs will allow you to pay up for whatever bats you want.
There is a few awful SPs that match up against really productive offenses. I usually don’t like to stack the chalkier spots like this, but it’s only a nine-game slate, and these are too juicy.
Toronto Blue Jays (vs. RHP Chris Ellis)
- The Blue Jays are projecting to put up a massive number, well above the rest of the field. One of the main reasons is the matchup against Ellis. While he has been able to strike out batters, a lack of experience and an under-whelming arsenal will play in Toronto’s favor. Left-handed bats give Ellis the most problems, so consider Corey Dickerson as a tremendous one-off piece or part of your stacks. Core stack targets: Bo Bichette, George Springer, Marcus Semien, and Vladimir Guererro Jr.
Boston Red Sox (vs. RHP Luis Patiño)
- Batting in Tropicana is not ideal for batters, and Patiño is an electric pitcher. However, he comes with the potential for blow-ups and at times gives up the long ball. The area that gives Patiño all sorts of issues is left-handed bats with plenty of power. The very challenging part about a Red Sox stack is the salaries are pretty high. Core stack targets: Kyle Schwarber, Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, and J.D. Martinez.
New York Yankees (at LHP José Quintana)
- It’s still early in the day, so the Angels haven’t officially named their starting pitcher—although it appears to be Quintana, and we love to stack against him. He likely won’t go too many pitches since he only tossed 38 on Thursday. So the game flips over to the Angels bullpen, which is pretty flawed. The power is prolific in the Yankees bats, so grab all the power you can. Rizzo is very cheap again. Core stack targets: Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, and Gary Sánchez.
Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the “value hitters” or “punt plays” are meant to be players under $3300 on DK and under $3100 on FD—just a step below my cash players. Due to the slate size, we are stretching the threshold slightly.
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)