Happy Monday! With most teams receiving a breather today, we are left with a six-game slate starting at 7:05 pm EST. The good news is none of the games look like they will be affected by the weather. The bad news? The decent SPs have tougher matchups and we might be strapped for runs. My suggestion, try to save where you can in pitching and bulk up with hitters. Enjoy!
Implied Run Totals
No line has come out for two games, and while ARI@PIT is at the forefront of everyone’s universe, the spot we all want to know is NYY@ATL. We know that the Yankees will be without a DH, which should bring the Implied Run Total (IRT) down a smidge. In a likelihood, Houston will remain with the highest IRT on the slate.
With such a low-scoring small slate, the focus should stick to the better teams. Trying to get too cute will lead you to miss out on too many points. Play it intelligent and straightforward today when it comes to stacks.
Starting Pitchers
Alek Manoah gets the nod as my top arm on the slate for a few reasons. First, he has every bit of the strikeout upside as Lynn but at a discounted salary. Next, the White Sox lineup has a ton of swing-and-miss in the lineup and doesn’t take many walks. Lastly, Manoah shuts down right-handed bats, and the White Sox have nearly no lefties in the lineup-especially with power.
Lance Lynn opposes Manoah and the Blue Jays. While we should expect a safe amount of innings and a decent amount of strikeouts, it’s tough to get past the fact that Toronto doesn’t strikeout. In fact, they have one of the lowest K% on the slate with a good ISO. In summation, Lynn is a workhorse that typically puts up a quality start, and I love him in all my cash lineups today-just not GPPs.
Huascar Ynoa gets a scary matchup against the Yankees. However, they will be without a DH, as the game is in Truist Stadium. One of the main reasons to play Ynoa is that he makes right-hand bats whiff a lot (26% K-rate). The challenging part, though, is when they make contact, it’s to a .220 ISO. His outing will go two ways: 1) Ynoa strikes out enough to put up an excellent game. 2) Ynoa strikes out a few and gives up multiple bombs. This is why he is a GPP play only.
If you’re playing cash games, Zack Greinke is the play for you-especially on FanDuel. His K% is far too low to consider him on DraftKings as the third-highest salary for SPs. On the GPP side, I can’t seem to see why you’d use him; Manoah and Ynoa are much cheaper and should strike out more batters. Heck, if I wanted an SP with a low K%, I’d roster Kyle Hendricks and save $800 on DraftKings.
Wil Crowe is an intriguing GPP play, though you’re playing with fire if you roster him. He gives up a lot of loud contact to batters from both sides of the plate, but he also has a K% north of 20% as well. The Diamondbacks have been on a bit of a heater lately, but saving the salary on Crowe will allow you to stack the offense big-time, which might be the better play on a small slate.
Hitter Stacks
There is so much suspect pitching on the slate; I recommend sticking to two stacks that should smash and filling in with one-offs in good spots. If we are already going to get a little different in SPs anyway, a chalkier stack can pair nicely with them.
Oakland Athletics (vs. LHP Marco Gonzales)
- Oakland hasn’t looked spectacular of late, but a matchup against Marco Gonzales may be just what the doctor ordered. Gonzales is not striking right-handed batters enough to mitigate the .290 ISO and .360 wOBA he is allowing. That is where we want to target bats from. Additionally, those right-handed bats in Oakland don’t cost that much either. Core stack targets: Mark Canha, Matt Olson, Starling Marte, and Yan Gomes.
Houston Astros (vs. LHP Daniel Lynch)
- Houston carries the highest IRT, and that leads to a high roster%. But they also come with a hefty price tag on a small slate, so you’ll have to get creative in your one-offs. On the flip side, we know Daniel Lynch has the tools to shut down an offense effectively, but this Astros’ lineup is full of batters that make contact and take walks. Lynch doesn’t strike out right-handed bats at all. Additionally, the harder-to-find positions can come from their stack. Core stack targets: Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, and Jose Altuve.
New York Yankees (at RHP Huascar Ynoa)
- Ynoa was pointed out in the SP section, which should tell you how condenses the slate is. As I mentioned then, the game will go either two ways (Ks with HRs or Ks with no HRs). If you’re stacking Yankees, you’ll have to focus on what Ynoa struggles the most with; right-handed power (.240 ISO allowed). It’s going to be an all-or-nothing type of day. Core stack targets: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, and Joey Gallo.
Value Hitters
Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the “value hitters” or “punt plays” are meant to be players under $3300 on DK and under $3100 on FD—just a step below my cash players. Due to the slate size, we are stretching the threshold slightly.
Good luck!
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)