Happy Wednesday! We’ve got a healthy eight-game slate today but no true aces. What’s that mean? We can get VERY creative with builds today—especially in GPPs. If you’re playing a three max contest, do just this. Play one chalkier build, one even-keel build, and one off-the-walls build to spread around the fun. Lastly, the first game locks in at 7:05 pm EST, so you’ve got plenty of time to watch for lineups and make calculated decisions. Good luck!
Implied Run Totals (IRT)
- MIA @ WSH – Not a game that draws much interest. We should only use either team as one-offs to fill roster holes.
- BAL @ NYY – The Yankees will be a chalk stack as they’ve got the highest IRT of the slate.
- BOS @ TOR – Lots of firepower in this game, and yet only TOR looks like the clear-cut winner. With all the solid names in the Red Sox lineup, I’d rather play BOS in GPPs.
- CHC @ ATL – Surprisingly, ATL isn’t pricey and has a solid IRT. This might make them a little chalky, but a good spot for easy points.
- DET @ MIN – Michael Pineda headed back to Minnesota is interesting. While DET is back to full strength with Javier Báez back, it’s a pass with Joe Ryan on the mound. Although, MIN has the potential for a big stack day and should garner your consideration.
- HOU @ TEX – Both lineups are in play for stacks. If you went with riskier SPs, go with HOU. If you went chalkier with SPs, use TEX.
- CLE @ LAA – Again, both stacks are in play but with different builds. Chalkier SPs with CLE and riskier SPs get LAA. It’s all about balance.
- OAK @ SFG – No lines out yet. But building an OAK stack isn’t a bright idea since they’re struggling to find offense lately. The Giants are cheap and have a decent matchup since Paul Blackburn returns to action. However, I wouldn’t suggest stacking them.
Pitching is done a little differently today because there aren’t any true aces on the slate, and this tends to spread the roster% around evenly. So, the color tiers will stray from the usual pattern.
While the Green tier continues to be the SP1 area, this is also where the pitching chalk lands. López, Ryan, and Montgomery have found early success and get matchups against not-so-great-Bob offenses. For DFS purposes, the biggest question is how chalky will they be? That’ll depend somewhat on your contest selection, but I wouldn’t expect them to draw more than 30%.
Montgomery gets a slight dropoff on FanDuel because of the quality start aspect, and he’s yet to throw more than 86 pitches. However, last time out, he picked up the QS and struck out five in a loss.
López and Ryan will be heavy influencers in cash games. Likely, you’ll see one of them and one of the Yellow Tier arms in any cash game builds tonight. My suggestion, play it safe and stick to a similar pairing.
Putting Ohtani and Morton in the Yellow Tier is an eerie feeling. I mean, c’mon, they are usually Green Tier material, and both have plenty of strikeout upside. However, both are getting hit exceptionally hard to begin the season. And while we should consider them in play and part of our builds, they lack the safety to belong a tier ahead.
We should expect both to draw some roster% on name recognition alone. Plus, as I stated, they haven’t been usable this year. Grab Ohtani as your SP2, and get a cheaper stack to pair with him. -OR- Go with Morton and look for a middle-of-the-road stack to go with him. Heck, maybe even target CLE since they match up against Ohtani for some leverage.
The Red Tier is our GPP upside plays. Glen Otto and Tyler Wells draw challenging matchups against adamant opponents (HOU and NYY), but both have nasty breaking balls. That’s led to Otto with a 28% K-rate vs. RHB, and Wells has over a 24% K-rate vs. both LHB and RHB. So, either could put up enough points to be relevant on strikeouts alone.
The biggest knock on either pitcher is efficiency. They need to limit the base runners for a successful day and not give up the long ball, which is a task that both opposing offenses can do very well. Fingers crossed and hope for the best, with a lower roster% today.
- Except for Matt Olson, none of the Braves are very expensive, and they’ve got a terrific matchup against one of the more suspect arms on the slate. For this reason, we should expect a fair amount of roster% shifting towards ATL. So, if you want to keep your ATL stack but get a little different, look at Dansby Swanson or Alex Dickerson in your build.
- Core stack targets: Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Olson.
- Point blank, Javier is making his first start of the season. One of the main reasons he has jettisoned between the rotation and bullpen is the walks. Although, in a little over eight innings, he’s only walked one batter. The ballpark may be spacious, but Texas brings enough thump to the lineups, and when you consider the base paths could have men on base, there is the making of a big night for the Rangers.
- Core stack targets: Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Mitch Garver.
- As I mentioned earlier, targeting a stack against a decent pitcher that could pick up some roster% is a smart play in GPPs. Against the field, we’ll need the leverage. Sure, Ohtani is a strikeout machine, but left-handed bats have faired pretty well. With a 3.1 IRT staring people in the face, we should see next to no roster%. Use this stack with chalkier SPs from the Green Tier.
- Core stack targets: José Ramírez, Josh Naylor, and Franmil Reyes.
Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the value hitters are players under $3500 on DK and under $3300 on FD—just a step below my cash players. Use these players to smash into your lineup when you need to save some salary.
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)