Welcome back for the first Closing Time of the MLB season! We finally have some usable data to work with, albeit a miniscule sample size, but the most important thing to look out for right now is usage. It’s still too early to panic over the top half of the list (Liam Hendriks will be fine), the pitchers who have steady job security and have proven they can be great closers. Even when it comes to dips in velocity (looking at you, Ryan Pressly), I think we should allow more time before jumping to conclusions, especially considering the short/scattered spring training these guys dealt with. I will probably wait until the end of the month to start moving the top 15 around (barring something drastic or injury-related), and I’d urge you to use the same restraint before making any moves this early in the year.
Notes
- Anthony Bender has seen the Marlins’ first two save chances, allowing just one mistake so far. I think it’s more likely that Bender retains his closer role than the next guy on the list, as Dylan Floro isn’t in the same category as a Lucas Sims and we still don’t have a timetable for Floro’s return (although he did throw a bullpen on Sunday). If either one of these two are able to stick in this role for the majority of the season, they should easily be top 15 RP options in saves leagues, so they are worth the speculative add for the time being.
- Art Warren picked up the Reds’ second save of the season, and should be considered the favorite (for now) over Tony Santillan. As with Bender and the Marlins, we likely won’t know for sure if Warren will be “the guy” for at least another week or so, as Lucas Sims should return to this bullpen over the weekend. Sims, like Floro, was the favorite to lead the team in saves this season, but has been slowed by injuries to begin the year. Warren has injury concerns of his own, but he should still be on your radar at the moment.
- We have yet to see who the Twins may call upon for a save chance (following Tyler Duffey’s blown save this past weekend) but they did go with rookie Jhoan Duran in the ninth inning last night, up by four runs, possibly a sign they want him to take over that role. As far as metrics and stuff go, Duran certainly should be the guy here, but it’s still rare we see a team going with a rookie in the role, despite whether or not they are the teams most talented bullpen arm. For now, Duran is certainly worth the speculative add as we wait to see how things play out, as the upside is too high to leave him on your wire.
- Tanner Rainey, not Kyle Finnegan, notched the first save of the season for the Nationals, and while I do prefer the general upside Rainey brings to the role over Finnegan, I’m not convinced Rainey is back to his 2019-20 ways quite yet. After averaging 97.7 mph on his fastball in ’19, Rainey so far has been down to 94.9 mph this year, which isn’t bad, but with his command, it could become problematic real quick. Like I said at the top, it’s still VERY early on, and you want to take a chance on Rainey given what we’ve seen in the not too distant past, but just be aware there is a real chance it goes bad here quickly.
- Jake Diekman closed out the Yankees in emphatic fashion on Sunday night, striking out Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Joey Gallo in order for his first save with the Red Sox. I think given that performance, it’s safe to say he will likely get the teams next save chance as Matt Barnes is still trying to work through some things (Barnes pitched the 6th inning of a tie game yesterday). Cora has said he wants Barnes to work himself back into the role, so I’d still predict Barnes becomes the closer again at some point, but when that may be, is very much up in the air.
- The Giants surprisingly gave Camilo Doval the first save chance of the season, and while he fell flat on his face, he’s not exactly out of the picture as Jake McGee, Dominic Leone and Tyler Rogers‘ usage have all been all over the place as well. If I had to guess, McGee gets a chance this week, but we really have no idea how this bullpen will play out yet. I wouldn’t go running to add someone like Leone yet, with McGee and Doval the two to roster for now if you want shares of this bullpen.
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh HaderT1 | HOU | - |
| 2 | Liam Hendriks | - | |
| 3 | Raisel Iglesias | ATL | - |
| 4 | Edwin DíazT2 | LAD | - |
| 5 | Craig Kimbrel | KC | - |
| 6 | Ryan Pressly | - | |
| 7 | Emmanuel Clase | CLE | - |
| 8 | Jordan RomanoT3 | COL | - |
| 9 | Taylor Rogers | MIN | - |
| 10 | Kenley Jansen | DET | - |
| 11 | Aroldis Chapman | BOS | - |
| 12 | Giovanny GallegosT4 | LAD | - |
| 13 | Scott Barlow | - | |
| 14 | Corey Knebel | - | |
| 15 | Mark Melancon | - | |
| 16 | Andrew KittredgeT5 | BAL | - |
| 17 | Paul Sewald | TOR | - |
| 18 | Gregory Soto | PIT | - |
| 19 | David Bednar | NYY | +1 |
| 20 | Lou Trivino III | +3 | |
| 21 | Anthony BenderT6 | MIA | +UR |
| 22 | Art Warren | +UR | |
| 23 | Jhoan Duran | PHI | +UR |
| 24 | Camilo Doval | SF | +UR |
| 25 | Tanner Rainey | +UR | |
| 26 | Joe Barlow | TEX | -1 |
| 27 | David Robertson | -1 | |
| 28 | Jorge López | +1 | |
| 29 | Daniel Bard | SEA | -1 |
| 30 | Jake Diekman | +UR |
Watch List
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Jake McGee | SFG | who knows with this bullpen, but McGee is worth hanging onto for at least another week |
| 2. | Lucas Sims | CIN | Warren should stick as the closer here, but Sims is worth rostering until we know. |
| 3. | Matt Barnes | BOS | Fared all right in his debut yesterday, but stuff wasn’t great. Has a ways to go. |
| 4. | Diego Castillo | SEA | Steckenrider may see more save chances early, but Castillo’s upside >>>>> |
| 5. | Emilio Pagán | MIN | Looking like Duran’s top competition at the moment for the closer role |
| 6. | Mychal Givens | CHC | Still slightly prefer Givens to Robertson over the remainder of the season. |
| 7. | Kyle Finnegan | WAS | Love seeing Rainey get the first save chance, but I still worry about him. |
| 8. | Dylan Floro | MIA | Bender’s job for now, but what happens when Floro returns from the IL? |
| 9. | Brooks Raley | TB | Could have the 2nd most saves on this team as the late-inning lefty-out guy. |
| 10. | Michael Fulmer | DET | Still not fully confident in Soto remaining in the role for an entire season. |
Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
