Bets of the Day – September 16th

Kyle Stanzel highlights Thursday's best bets around baseball.

Usually I only have three bets of the day for you, especially on a Thursday with such a short slate. But looking through the games today, I was feeling unusually generous and decided to throw in an extra lock for you as the season enters the Twilight Zone:

 

Rockies @ Braves Total Runs First 3 Innings O/U 2.5

 

The Colorado Rockies and Atlanta Braves get us started early on Thursday with a 12:20 matinee featuring Germán Márquez and Ian Anderson on the mound. Colorado is going for the surprise sweep after taking the first two games of the series 5-4 and 3-2. Márquez and Anderson actually faced off two weeks ago and neither starter was particularly effective in a 7-6 Rockies win. However, that game was in Colorado and this one will be in the friendlier confines of Truist Park. Both pitchers impressed in their most recent starts, with Márquez striking out 6 in 6 shutout innings at Philadelphia and Anderson striking out 9 while giving up just 2 ER in 5 innings against Miami. With the early start time and the quality of these two pitchers, I like the under 2.5 to hit in the first three innings as the batters knock out the cobwebs the first time through the order.

Pick: UNDER 2.5 Runs (-115 DK, -128 FD)

 

Andrew Benintendi Total Bases O/U 1.5 

 

Andrew Benintendi has been on some kind of tear lately for hot-hitting Kansas City Royals. The reigning American League Player of the Week has hit for a .421 average so far in September and is hitting .613 during his current seven-game hitting streak, which includes 3 HRs. Kansas City has scored 10 runs in each of the first two games of this series and I don’t think Paul Blackburn and his 5.24 ERA is the one to stop them. The RHP has given up 15 hits and 8 ERs in his last two starts, working through just 6 innings. Benintendi is just simply too locked in right now and over 1.5 total bases should be no problem 27-year old.

Pick: OVER 1.5 (+110 DK,  FD)

 

Kyle Tucker Total Bases O/U 1.5

 

Speaking of hot-hitting LHH, Kyle Tucker is the hottest-hitting player in baseball over the last two weeks and it is not even close. The 24-year old has a .593 wOBA and a 291 wRC+ in that time and the next closest hitter is Toronto’s Teoscar Hernández at .525 and 238. Texas RHP Glenn Otto was excellent in his first start of 2021 against the Astros on August 27th, striking out 7 in 5 shutout innings. Since then, the Angels had moderate success against him in a short start and the floodgates opened against the Athletics in his last start, as Otto allowed 8 ER in 3.1 innings. Tucker has already seen the best the 25-year old has to offer and you can be assured that Otto will not have the same success this time around.

Pick: OVER 1.5 (-105 DK)

 

Astros Total Runs O/U 5.5

 

To add to Glenn Otto’s misery today, Tucker is not the only Houston hitter who has been crushing the ball of late. The top 35 players in baseball in wOBA and wRC+ over the last two weeks also feature the likes of Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Yordan Alvarez. The Astros could easily hit 6 runs before Otto is out of the game, as the team surely will have revenge on the mind. Stack Houston in your DFS lineups and hit the over 5.5 here all day long.

Pick: OVER 5.5 (+105 DK)

 

Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 48-56-3

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $66.34

 

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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