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Bets of the Day – May 8th

Kyle Stanzel highlights Thursday's best bets around baseball.

Happy Mother’s Day to all the mom’s out there. We literally wouldn’t be here without you and all that you do for us. Keep an eye out for all the pink equipment out there on the diamond today. Also keep an eye out for a certain top prospect making his debut in Seattle.

This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully, this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).

 

Brewers @ Braves Moneyline

 

The Brewers sit atop the NL Central at 19-9 and have been especially hot of late, winning 8 of their last ten. The Brew Crew’s elite starting pitching is complimented by its balanced lineup that can attack you many ways. Rowdy Tellez and Willy Adames have been especially hot of late and I think that will continue on Sunday against the Atlanta Braves and Charlie Morton. Listen, I think Morton will eventually turn it around like he did last year. But until that happens it is hard to put any amount of confidence in him on the mound. Aaron Ashby on the other hand, is someone who I was high on coming into the year and he seems to get better every time he toes the rubber. If he can reel in some of his control issues, Ashby is going to be yet another Brewers ace and I think he looks the part today in outdueling the veteran Morton.

Pick: Brewers ML  (+110 DK, +116 FD)

 

Royals @ Orioles O/U 7.5 Runs

 

You should always conduct your due diligence and research when it comes to betting on baseball, especially since there is so much information out there at your disposal. But sometimes, for whatever reason, you just have a gut feeling about a game. When scanning the sportsbook this morning, for reasons I’m not sure I can explain, I was just drawn to the Royals and Orioles Game 1 over. Despite it being Sunday, this is the first game of the series as the weather in Baltimore has produced two rainouts. In my opinion, Zack Greinke and Jordan Lyles have both pitched a little over their respective heads this year. The Orioles bats started to wake up in their last two games against the Twins, scoring 14 total runs in both victories. With the Royals, again I’m not sure I can explain it with statistical evidence, but I think the Royals are going to put up some runs today. I like the 1-2 punch at the top of Edward Olivares and Andrew Benintendi and there is also depth in this lineup with Whit Merrifield and Bobby Witt in the 5-6 spots. I completely understand if you want to fade this pick but also that’s dumb and you should just get on board and hammer this over on blind faith alone.

Pick: OVER 7.5 Runs (-105 DK, -110 FD)

 

Rowdy Tellez to Hit a Home Run

 

The Brewers have to be extremely happy with the production they are getting from Rowdy Tellez, as he already has 7 home runs in just 97 plate appearances. A home run from Tellez on Mother’s Day would only be fitting, considering she had to endure the origin of his “Rowdy” name. Unfortunately, Tellez’s mother passed away a couple years ago, which took quite a toll on the young man. However, in 2022 Tellez seems to be in a great place and I’m predicting he tees off on the struggling Charlie Morton and puts one in the seats for Mom.

Pick: Rowdy Tellez to Hit a Home Run (+475 DK, +520 FD)

 

Walker Buehler O/U 5.5 Strikeouts

 

Walker Buehler has been his usual excellent self on the mound, but he is doing it in a different way this year. His K% is down to 21.5% from 26% last year and 28.6% the year before that. I don’t expect this to continue for Buehler who just has too much talent to be striking out so few. In come the Chicago Cubs to remedy that. Losers of four consecutive games, the Cubs have scored a whopping 18 runs in their last ten games and if you take out a six run performance against Atlanta, they are averaging 1.33 runs in the other nine games. On top of that, Chicago is striking out at a 29% clip over the last two weeks, second highest in baseball. I think Buehler is going to go deep into the game on Sunday night and should easily eclipse the 5.5 strikeout prop, which comes with very nice +110 odds.

Pick: Buehler OVER 5.5 Ks (+110 DK, +102 FD)

 

Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 18-14-0

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $702.06

 

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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