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Bets of the Day – May 5th

Kyle Stanzel highlights Thursday's best bets around baseball.

The Sunday serenity came through for me, resulting in a 3-1 day that was almost 4-0 if the Yankees could have gotten it going a little bit earlier. Either way we are cruising along here as the baseball season approaches its first full month in action and we have an interesting slate on Thursday with several intriguing pitchers toeing the rubber.

This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully, this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).

 

Blue Jays @ Guardians Run Line

 

Aaron Civale was someone who I thought was highly overrated coming into the season and that projection has proven to be spot on so far this season. Civale has yet to pitch past the 4th inning and has allowed 12 ERs over his last two starts, spanning 7 innings. A matchup with the Guardians RHP could be just what a scuffling Blue Jays offense needs to get back on track. Either way, Toronto shouldn’t need too much offensively to back José Berríos, who I thought was actually one of the more underrated pitchers coming into 2022. Berrios isn’t going to wow you, but he is just the model of consistency and will almost always keep you in the game. The 27-year old has allowed just 4 total ERs in 18.2 innings over his last three starts. This is a pitching mismatch and I like the Blue Jays to build off an exciting win Wednesday against the red-hot Yankees.

Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (+105 DK, +108 FD)

 

Rays @ Mariners O/U 1.5 Total Runs After 3 Innings

 

In a day full of good pitching matchups, this one takes the cake for sure. You have one of the most electric pitchers in baseball in Shane McClanahan taking on reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray in Seattle on Thursday night. McClanahan has posted an absurd 39.3 K% so far this season and if the strikeout props were out by the time I am writing this I would probably mention that here as well. After a shaky start against the White Sox, Robbie Ray has returned to form in his last three starts, not allowing more than 3 runs in any of the starts with most of the damage coming after the third inning. As a result, I’m targeting the first three innings in this one as I don’t think either offense stands much of a chance against these electric lefties the first time through the order. Give me under 1.5 runs at +115 with these guys every time and you can bet I will be staying up to catch this matchup.

Pick: UNDER 1.5 Runs After 3 Innings (+115 DK, -116 FD)

 

Josh Bell O/U 0.5 RBI

 

Tim Speros knocking down his Nolan Arenado HR bet yesterday had me wanting to follow suit today, but unfortunately I think I’m going to have to settle for an RBI bet. While Antonio Senzatela can certainly get hit around a bunch, he actually has done an impressive job of limiting the long ball over the past few years. He faces a Washington Nationals lineup that has scored in double digits three times in its last five games. Josh Bell occupies the #3 spot in that lineup, right behind Juan Soto, and he has been hitting the ball very well lately (193 wRC+). With Soto and Cesar Hernandez, who is also hitting the ball very well, batting in front of him, Bell should have several RBI opportunities today and I think he cashes in at least once.

Pick: Bell OVER 0.5 RBI (+100 DK, +105 FD)

 

Nick Martinez O/U 1.5 Total Walks

 

I don’t usually look at bets with odds at -185, but this one just looks too easy to ignore. Since his impressive first start on April 11th, Nick Martinez has proven to be a little underwhelming as a starter and his control has been a big reason for that. In 14.2 innings across three starts, Martinez has walked 11 batters and is looking at an unsightly 13.8% BB% for the season. He even walked two batters in his last start against the Cincinnati Reds, a bottom five team in BB%. Now Martinez faces a patient Miami Marlins lineup that is #5 in baseball with a 9.8% team BB%. I actually like the Marlins offense as a whole tonight, but I am about as confident as I can be that Martinez will walk at least two batters on Thursday night.

Pick: Martinez OVER 1.5 Total Walks (-185 DK)

 

Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 16-12-0

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $687.06

 

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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