Welcome to the Bets of the Day column for Tuesday. If you have been following my picks for this month, then you are very welcome! 3-0 on May 3, 2-1 on May 10, and 2-1 on may 17. 7-2 overall for the month! The two misses were -1.5 run line bets and the team I selected won but only by 1 run. With plenty of data at our fingertips, we are in a good spot to leverage all of it to our advantage.
As usual, I will highlight three picks. Each of those picks are heavily favored teams as they should be. They are at the top of their divisions or playing bottom feeders or both. Like the stock market, you invest in the blue chippers and occasionally short the losers. Let’s get to it!
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Run Line (-130)
Did you see what the Dodgers did to Washington last night? They got up to an early 2-0 lead and never looked back. Joan Adon has terrible Statcast metrics and it showed. You know who else has terrible Statcast metrics is Adon’s teammate Josiah Gray. He is allowing 9.3% barrels per plate appearance which is high. The fly ball to ground ball ratio is eye popping at 2.96. He is also getting crushed by left-handed hitting to the tune of 1.071 allowed OPS and serving up seven homers and we are still in the month of May.
The Dodgers definitely have the left-handed power to make Gray pay. Look for Freddie Freeman to go yard and perhaps Max Muncy will break out of his funk. Even the lower hanging fruit in the lineup such as Edwin Rios, Cody Bellinger, and Gavin Lux will find success as they tend to do well against righties. And of course the right-handed bats for LA are plenty capable of doing damage. Dodgers starting pitcher Walker Buehler should be able to provide 6-7 solid innings while the LA bats put on another clinic in our nation’s capital.
Houston Astros Money Line (-210)
I am tempted to take the -1.5 run line for Houston but I tend to shy away from doing so when the favored team is at time and it the delta between the money line and run line payouts is too high. Usually a smaller delta, like we have for the LA Dodgers, is a good sign that Vegas is afraid of the favored team winning by 2 or more runs. For the Astros today, just play it safe by taking the money line. Of course Houston had an off night yesterday but they should get back on the winning track today against a gas can pitcher like Zach Plesac. He has struggled all year, especially against left-handed power. This is where batters like Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker should feast.
After all, Houston is 27-16 and had an impressive 11 game winning streak earlier this month. They can easily start another streak very soon and why not today. Another thing to consider is that Houston is 12-6 at home while Cleveland is 10-12 on the road. Considering that Houston typically wins each home series and that Cleveland took the first game, look for Houston to even the series this evening. Framer Valdez has been solid this year so he should have no problem putting the clamps down on the mediocre Guardians’ offense. Perhaps Houston wins by 2 or more runs but play smart here in case Cleveland narrows the gap late in the game.
Arizona Diamondbacks Money Line (-200)
Rarely do I like to bet on a team in the middle of the pack but this play is more about betting against a terrible team and rolling with an ace. Gallen has been impressive this year and is a big reason why Arizona could find itself with a winning record instead of at the bottom of the division. The bats have also come alive as we saw last night. Meanwhile the Royals are destined for another poor season. They simply don’t have the talent to compete at the major league level and sometimes I wonder if the Royals should just blow it all up and give the top prospects more playing experience in the big leagues just so they are in better shape for future seasons.
But I digress. If you focus on the matchup at hand, Gallen should have a brilliant outing tonight. I can see him going 7-8 innings with double digit Ks. I can also see Jonathan Heasley, a very inexperienced pitcher for the Royals, getting lit up early and the Royals bullpen not doing much to stop the bleeding. There is a reason why the Royals are tied for the worst record in the American League: they are terrible. Expect Kansas City’s misery to continue in the southwest with another loss to a rising star like the Diamondbacks. Again, play it safe when betting on the home team by just doing a money line play.
There you have it. Trust the data and we should have ourselves at least a 2-1 day. But I am feeling like 3-0. Let’s go!
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)