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Bets of the Day – May 19th

Kyle Stanzel highlights Thursday's best bets around baseball.

A short Thursday slate, with five day games and three night games, means we have to make our bets count. Looks like we should be all good on weather and will avoid any cancellations, so without further ado let’s get into it.

This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully, this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).

 

Cardinals @ Mets Run Line

 

The St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets wrap up a four-game series at Citi Field on Thursday afternoon, with the Cardinals looking to split the series with a win. Coming off an 11-4 drubbing of St. Louis on Wednesday, the Mets send new-found ace Chris Bassitt to the mound to try and secure the series victory. Bassitt has been downright spectacular in his first season with New York, continuing to be the model of consistency while improving his K% to a career-high 26.9%. On April 26, Bassitt chucked 6 scoreless innings in a win at St. Louis and he just gives the Mets a great chance to win each and every time out there.

While Bassitt is striking out a career-high, Dakota Hudson’s already paltry K% has continued to dive to a career-low 13.5%. His BB% is also way up at 11.5% and it is a miracle that his ERA is at 3.06. Against a lineup as dangerous as the Mets, those numbers are just not going to cut it and Hudson’s inability to miss bats and limit baserunners is going to catch up to him. Look for the Mets to cruise to a victory on Thursday afternoon while sending the Cardinals on their way.

Pick: Mets -1.5 (+125 DK, +114 FD)

 

Padres @ Phillies O/U 8 Runs

 

The Padres and Phillies are set to play a rubber match on Thursday, with each team taking a 3-0 victory in the first two games of the series. So if the first two games are any indicator, you are probably thinking under here with veterans Yu Darvish and Kyle Gibson on the mound. Well, think again. Prior to this series, the Padres had scored five or more runs in five consecutive games and the Phillies had scored four runs or more in seven consecutive games. Both lineups are loaded with offensive talent, including superstars like Manny Machado and Bryce Harper (who may or may not be in the lineup) and the two veteran starters haven’t looked the part so far this season. They allowed a combined 11 earned runs in their last starts and I can see them getting hit around a bit this afternoon. 8 runs just seems a little too low for these two teams and I think at the very least they hit that number.

Pick: OVER 8 Runs (-115 DK, -104 FD)

 

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run

 

Do you think Aaron Judge is playing to prove that turning down that massive contract extension wasn’t a mistake? The 30-year-old has already smashed 14 HRs and looks like he is going to approach his career-high 52 this season. He has 4 in the last week and gets Baltimore LHP Bruce Zimmermann on Thursday. Zimmermann allowed two HRs in his last start and Judge took him deep twice in four at-bats last season. At +380, I’ll take a chance on Judge staying hot and putting one out at Camden Yards.

Pick: Judge to Hit a HR (+380 DK, +265 FD)

 

Glenn Otto O/U 1.5 Walks

 

On Thursday night, Texas RHP Glenn Otto takes the mound to face a difficult Houston Astros lineup for the second time in less than a month. Houston doesn’t have quite the firepower that it did when it won the World Series, but the team does do a good job of being patient at the plate, which does not bode well for a pitcher with the control issues that Otto has experienced this season. The 26-year-old is walking 12.3% of the batters he has faced and walked two on April 27th against Houston, three on May 8th against the Yankees, and four in his last start against Boston. The Astros meanwhile have a 10.0% BB% over the last two weeks and for that reason, I think over 1.5 walks out of Otto is a safe play at -155

Pick: OVER 1.5 Walks (-155 DK)

 

Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 23-21-0

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $552.30

 

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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