Bets of the Day – May 17

Gus Elmashni shares his wagering acumen with today's Bets of the Day.

Welcome to the Bets of the Day column for Tuesday. As usual, I will highlight three picks. Let’s get to it!

 

Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals Game 1 Under 8 Runs (-105)

 

By now you should be familiar with the reverse Coors effect if you have been reading my articles. In a nutshell, teams who just wrapped up a series in Colorado struggle to hit. It’s just physics or as Ron Burgundy would say about male superiority, “it’s just science!” Dylan Cease will take the mound for the White Sox and he is putting up Cy Young numbers right now. The Royals had their fun in the Rocky Mountains playing home run derby last weekend but they will get a hard dose of reality today when they whiff often. Meanwhile, the White Sox offense should be much better and perhaps we will see some positive regression from them soon. However, they face a decent pitcher in Jonathan Heasley who had solid strikeout and walk metrics in both AA and AAA for the Royals. Unless this game goes to extra innings like last night, I expect a 4-2 type of result for the first game of this doubleheader.

 

New York Yankees -1.5 Run Line (-140)

 

This is a classic example of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Yankees are in first place in the AL East with a 26-9 record while the Orioles are in last place with a 14-22 record. The Bronx Bombers have won 8 of their last 10 games while Baltimore is on a four-game losing streak. Baltimore has lost each of those four games by at least 2 runs. You can slice and dice the pitching matchup all you want but the bottom line is that the Orioles cannot hold a candle to the men who wear pinstripes. Aaron Judge should be back after taking a day off and the Orioles’ struggles at the plate should continue. I suggest you go heavy with the Yankees run line or parlay with another bet you feel confident about. This is free money.

 

San Francisco GiantsColorado Rockies Over 11 Runs (-110)

 

Most teams love playing in Colorado, but none so more than the G-Men. Perhaps it could be the drastic change in climate from playing at sea level and cool temperatures for most of the season and then they get to hit in a park that is at more than 5,000 feet above sea level and typically experiences warm temperatures at this time of year. Historically the Giants tend to pop off in the first 2 games of their road trips to Colorado and last night was exactly what happened. Like the Yankees – Orioles game, you can break down the pitching matchup all you want but you can’t fight the physics that comes into play. There is a lot of power on both teams and neither pitcher is highly adept at generating a high frequency of groundballs. I find it odd that the run total is down from 12 to 11 today. I believe the run total will exceed the 13 runs we saw last night.

 

There you have it. Use a bit of science and trends and we should have ourselves a 3-0 day. Good luck!

 

 

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Gus Elmashni

Gus Elmashni is a San Francisco Bay Area native and an avid fan of the NBA, NFL, and MLB. He has played fantasy sports since 1993 when a few high school friends and he would tabulate daily NBA results from the San Jose Mercury News and draft new teams every month. Gus has been with Pitcher List since April 2022 writing DFS articles and the Best Bets column. Additionally, Gus works full-time as an educator in Northern California and resides in Sacramento with his wife and two young children.

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