An up and down Mother’s Day from a betting perspective can’t damper what has been a fairly profitable first month and change. While I don’t want to say I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop, it feels like I am due for an 0-4 day. But that has never stopped me in the past, so here are four bets for your viewing pleasure on Thursday.
This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully, this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).
Phillies @ Dodgers Moneyline
The Los Angeles Dodgers and all their superstar power just dropped 2 of 3 to the Pittsburgh Pirates (MUAHAHAHAH) and had to stew on that while flying back to Los Angeles from Pittsburgh to begin a series with the Phillies. Now of course there is nothing to actually worry about for Dodgers fans, but they haven’t come storming out of the gates quite as you would hope for a team with their talent. The vaunted offense has taken a little while to get going, outside of Freddie Freeman, and tonight they face Philadelphia ace Zack Wheeler. Back-to-back scoreless outings for Wheeler have quieted any concerns about the 31-year-old. Tyler Anderson takes the mound for Los Angeles and while he has been exceptional over his last two starts, they came against the Cubs and Tigers. I imagine he will have a more difficult time handling the Phillies lineup and I’ll take on the risk of picking them moneyline here considering we are getting it at +115 on DraftKings and +124 on FanDuel.
Pick: Phillies ML (+115 DK, +124 FD)
Mets @ Nationals O/U 8.5 Runs
What is going on with this Washington Nationals offense? Over the last two weeks, the Nats have had the 2nd-best offense in baseball with a 133 wRC+, buoyed by the unlikely duo of Yadiel Hernandez and Josh Bell. It also doesn’t hurt to have someone like Juan Soto in the middle of the lineup either. I don’t think we need to dive too deep into the New York Mets lineup. If you’ve followed baseball in any way in 2022, you know that the Mets and their deep offense are raking.
Taijuan Walker miraculously has faced the Phillies in all three of his starts this season and allowed 6 ERs in 4 innings in his last start. He is going to need to be on point if he wants to limit the Nationals’ baserunners. Joan Adon has done a good job of eating innings for Washington so far, he just hasn’t done it very effectively. Adon has allowed 12 ERs in 13 innings over his last three starts and I expect more of the same here. In fact, in his first start of the year, he allowed 4 ERs in 4.1 innings against New York. 8.5 runs is just too low here with the offensive firepower these two teams have displayed of late.
Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs (-120 DK, -136 FD)
Corey Seager O/U 0.5 RBI
Honestly, it is still very weird to see Corey Seager in a Texas Rangers uniform, but the high-priced free agent has started to turn things on lately. Over his last two games, Seager has exploded for 3 home runs and while they were all solo shots, it is good to see him hitting the ball for power. On Thursday, the Rangers face Kansas City rookie Jon Heasley, who has had some success in the minor leagues but features a fairly underwhelming arsenal. In fact, in his last AAA start, he allowed 3 home runs. So while I am not going so far as to bet on another Seager bomb, I do think he will have ample RBI opportunities today and if he can continue his XBH trajectory, he should come through and cash these +110 odds.
Pick: Seager OVER 0.5 RBI (+110 DK)
Zack Wheeler to Record a Win
Remember when we were all concerned with Zack Wheeler’s velocity and struggles earlier this season? Yeah, me neither. Wheeler has been outstanding in his last two starts, combining for 13.2 innings, 7 hits, 0 ERs, and 14 strikeouts. On Thursday he gets the dangerous Dodgers lineup, but as we said above, they just haven’t quite gotten into gear yet. Over the last two weeks, Los Angeles has been a middle-of-the-pack offense with a 103 wRC+ and that effort is not going to cut it against Wheeler’s stuff. So yes, I am going to double down here on Wheeler and the Phillies and you can thank me later.
Pick: Wheeler to Record a Win (+170 DK)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 20-16-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $707.30
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)