The first Friday of June brings us another loaded night of baseball with all thirty teams in action.
Max Scherzer Total Strikeouts
This is a fun game in terms of K props with Zack Wheeler on the other side installed at 6.5 on DraftKings with the over set at -125. Wheeler can certainly get there, no kidding, as he’s reached double-digits in each of his last three starts. It is a tougher matchup for strikeouts, though, as the Nationals are tied with the Reds for the third-lowest K rate in baseball vs RHP at 22.3%. In his previous start against the Nationals, back on May 12th, he recorded seven strikeouts backed by a 29.6% CSW.
While Wheeler looks like a decent bet to get there I like picking Max Scherzer here because of the lineup he’s facing. Injuries to Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius have forced Joe Girardi to start the likes of Odúbel Herrera and Brad Miller, they’ve been productive to their credit, but still, this weakens their current lineup significantly. And would you believe it? Scherzer has been striking hitters out as his 36.5% K rate on the year is tied for third among qualified starters with Gerrit Cole. Scherzer has reached the nine strikeout threshold in seven of his eleven starts this year. Meanwhile, the Phillies, who have yet to face Scherzer this year, have thus far tallied a team K rate of 25.7% against righties, just behind Tampa (25.8%) for seventh-highest.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-107 DraftKings)
Blue Jays Total Runs
I don’t necessarily want to pick on Zack Greinke, as he’s been his usual self this year limiting hitters to just a .299 xwOBA overall while also avoiding free passes. However, we have seen his K rate dip to just 19.4% on the year, and if that sticks that would be his lowest K rate since 2005, back when George W. Bush was barely into his second term roaming the Oval Office.
The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have established themselves as one of the best offenses in baseball with a .335 team wOBA against RHP this year, trailing only the Dodgers at .340. Another thing to note here considering the amount of righty power that the Jays throw out in their lineup, Greinke has shown some slight reverse splits going back to 2019 ceding a .305 wOBA and .179 ISO to righties as opposed to marks of just .256 and .120 respectively to lefties. We’re backing a surging Jays offense against a pitcher who is operating with a seemingly scant margin for error.
Pick: Over 4.5 (+110 DraftKings)
Twins Total Runs
Brad Keller has struggled this season with just an 8.8% K-BB%. He’s also been charged with a 6.60 xERA and .393 xwOBA, both hitting that dubious distinction of bottom 4% in baseball via Statcast. So Keller certainly looks susceptible right now considering his limited ability to miss bats and the hard contact he’s allowing.
Meanwhile, we know the Twins have some impressive power with the likes of Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Alex Kirilloff, and Miguel Sanó in the middle of their order. So far, they rank eighth in team wOBA at .322 just behind the Braves. The Royals’ pen has not been very good either as their relievers have combined for just a 12% K-BB%, third from the bottom just ahead of the Rockies. On the road, I like the Twins’ chances at putting up some runs tonight.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-109 DraftKings)
Ryan Amore Overall Record: 13-13-0
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)