Lately, I’ve felt like Patrick Star in band practice. Everything I touch is off. I play Ty France to go over his total base prop during his hot streak, and this is what happens in his first at-bat. 7 of the 9 Mariners in the lineup recorded a hit, and somehow France wasn’t one of them. He had 2+ total bases in ten of his last thirteen games! A hit in eighteen of his last twenty games! Sometimes that’s how the cookie crumbles, but crumble in the right way for me today, goddammit!
Alex Cobb over 5.5 strikeouts -104 vs MIA
I’m ready to be hurt again, Marlins. I took Alex Wood to have over 5.5 strikeouts yesterday, and he fell short by one. Well, it’s a new day and a new Alex to get 6 against the fish. 8 of the last 9 right-handed pitchers have reeled in at least 5 strikeouts against Miami, and none of them have the peripherals that Cobb has. He’s just built differently you see.
How can one have a 5.74 ERA and have the 3rd best xERA among all starting pitchers? I’ve never seen such drastic splits, and it’s begging for him to have an utterly dominant start today. Despite the wacky ERA discrepancies the strikeouts have been there for Cobb. He has recorded at least 6 punchouts in 5 of his 8 starts and has done it against some of the more K-averse teams.
The Marlins have the 8th highest O-Swing% and when that splitter of his is dropping off the table the way it usually does it is hard not to fish for it. Cobb has a 31.8% CSW% and ranks in the top 96th percentile in chase rate. I also split a unit up to ladder this play on Cobb. 7 strikeouts is at +192, 8 at +384, 9 is at +750, and 10 +1430. Yeah, I’m feeling bold today.
Nathan Eovaldi over 18.5 outs +115 & over 5.5 K’s -108 vs OAK
It’s safe to say the Athletics aren’t good. Pretty ironic for a team that’s called athletic am I right? Ok I get it you don’t come here for bad openers like that, but they aren’t good. They have the 3rd highest CSW% (28.6%), and are tied for the worst wRC+ (75), and have the 7th highest strikeout rate (23.9%) against RHP on the season. Not only are they bad, they know they are and are trying to get games over with quickly with the 7th fewest pitches per plate appearance.
Despite no musical experience at all Nathan Eovaldi will play them like a fiddle in the friendly confines of the Coliseum. He has been rocked by the long ball (2.51 HR/9!) this year, but luckily for him the A’s don’t hit dingers. They have just 34 this year which ranks 28th in the game, so that should keep him in the game longer than usual.
Aside from that blow-up game that we will try to forget, Eovaldi has eclipsed this out prop in 5 of his last 6 starts. He is efficient with his pitches, doesn’t walk many batters (3.8% BB%), and throws just 3.77 Pit/PA which ranks in the upper third of all starters. If we think he works into the 7th inning then he should find at least 6 punchouts right? Right. He has 6 or more Ks in 7 of 10 starts this year.
BAL/CLE No Runs First Inning -120
Don’t want to sweat out these pitcher props? Well, here you go. The quickest wager there is. The Nurfee. Shane Bieber is a NRFI machine. Since 2021 he has a 22-3 NRFI record and is 8-1 this year. Most of the Orioles lineup hasn’t seen Bieber, but Trey Mancini and Anthony Santander have and they’re typically in the top 3 of the batting order. They’re a combined 0-9 with 5 strikeouts against the Biebs. Baltimore has scored the fewest runs in the first inning.
Bruce Zimmerman is the one to worry about in the equation here, but he has found some NRFI success with a 7-2 record this year. With a top83% BB% he doesn’t really walk many batters, and the Guardians have yet to face him which should work in his favor. Their leadoff hitter, Miles Straw, is 3-23 over his last 6 games. Amed Rosario is 7-30 over his last 7, and let’s not talk about Jose Ramirez and his stats because he is scary and I don’t want to put bad juju out into the world for this bet. Even the greatest hitters fail to get a hit in 7 of 10 at-bats…
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)