We are calling this Team Total Thursday, as there is certainly a very definitive theme to the bets we have for you today at Pitcher List. Veteran lefties beware…:
Astros Total Runs O/U 4.5
The lefty-mashing Astros get a rematch against Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez, who they bashed for 6 ER in 4.2 IP back on May 31st. Houston has scored more than 6 runs in four of their last five games and they have six hitters in their lineup in the top 50 in baseball in wRC+. Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel have been especially hot of late (248 and 215 wRC+ in the last 14 days respectively) and Correa has 6 hits in 9 AB against Rodriguez in his career. Look for Houston to continue their hot hitting on Thursday.
Pick: OVER 4.5 (+102 DK)
Blue Jays Total Runs O/U 4.5
Normally, I’d be recommending the White Sox offense in this battle of LHP, but after getting torched by Robbie Ray, I am a bit hesitant to pick them against the likes of Hyun Jin Ryu. Instead, we are going with the Blue Jays, who have had moderate success against lefties but have been very potent of late. Toronto’s lineup contains a slew of RH power bats, including a trio who are slugging over .500 in Marcus Semien, Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Randal Grichuk, not to mention the likes of Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez. Dallas Keuchel is allowing by far the highest Barrel% of his career (10.0% in 2021 compared to 4.9% in his career) and he combines it with an unfathomably low 12.0 K%. That is not a good combo against a lineup like Toronto’s and I expect Chicago to be calling for a reliever in short order.
Pick: OVER 4.5 (+104 DK, +104 FD)
Athletics Total Runs O/U 4.5
Kansas City LHP Mike Minor is our third and final victim tonight as he travels to Oakland to take on an Athletics team that is chomping at the bit to break out. The A’s have been a top 10 team in the league against lefties (.328 wOBA, 115 wRC+) and they were able to push across 5 ER on 10 hits in 5 innings against their last LH starter (albeit Kyle Freeland in Coors). While it is time for the likes of Matt Chapman and Stephen Piscotty to prove themselves against LHP, this bet is more about Minor. The former Athletic has been very hit or miss this year and he allowed 7 hits and 5 ER in 7 IP against Minnesota in his last start. Minor has not had much success against Oakland in his career, having allowed 22 ER in 21 IPs over 4 starts since 2019. Mark Canha (3 HR in 15 AB against Minor) should get Oakland off to a hot start and I expect the rest of the lineup to follow suit in Thursday’s late game.
Pick: OVER 4.5 (+114 DK, -115 FD)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 26-26-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$977.53
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