Bets of the Day – April 21st

Kyle Stanzel highlights Thursday's best bets around baseball.

Good Thursday to you, Pitcher List readers. Easter Sunday was good to me on this article as we went 3-1 , keeping us in the green on the young season. Another four bets for you today but we are focusing on just two games so set your schedule for today accordingly.

This season, I have decided to treat readers to four bets in each article under the following parameters: 1) A bet on a team, 2) A bet on a total, 3) A batter prop bet, and 4) A pitcher prop bet. Hopefully, this diversification will lead to success in our wagers (but probably not).

 

Giants @ Mets Run Line After 5 Innings

 

The “Run Line After 5 Innings” bet was good to us on Sunday so we are going back to the well today, only this time we are betting against the Giants. The Mets are actually looking like the team they are supposed to be early on in the season and it is time for us to jump in on them and reap the rewards. Brandon Nimmo has served as an excellent table setter in his contract year. Starling Marte has provided a jolt of energy to this team. Francisco Lindor is on a revenge war path after his down 2021 season. Pete Alonso, Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha and Jeff McNeil round out a deep and dangerous lineup that has provided more than enough run support for a rotation that has been one of the best in baseball despite missing Jacob deGrom.

Carlos Carrasco has been one of the reasons for the rotation’s quality start to 2022, allowing just 1 ER in 10.2 IP over his first two starts. The Giants lineup certainly presents some challenges, but a day game on getaway day early in the season 3,000 miles from home has me leaning towards a solid outing from Carrasco and a lead for the Mets after 5 innings.

Pick: Mets -0.5 After First 5 Innings (+100 DK)

 

Rangers @ Mariners O/U 8 Runs

 

Damn you, Marco Gonzales! I am always one to fully admit when I am wrong and boy was I wrong on Gonzales’ last start, when he allowed just 1 ER in 7 innings against Houston with 6 strikeouts. This came after allowing 3 HRs in 2 innings in his first start against Minnesota. Guess which way I am leaning for this Gonzales start? Rangers, Let’s Power Up! Texas has had a rough start to the season at 2-9, despite some encouraging offseason acquisitions. Eventually water finds its level and I think they put some runs on the board here as surely they can’t continue to struggle this bad for long.

I have been a Taylor Hearn fan ever since he was a budding Pirates prospect but the Mariners offense is just a little too dangerous to trust him here. Hearn got roughed up a bit in his last start against the Angels and I expect the likes of Ty France and Eugenio Suárez to make things tough for Hearn again on Thursday. 8 runs is easily within reach for these two teams against this pair of lefties and I am confident in a late night over.

Pick: OVER 8 Runs (-110 DK,  -105 FD)

 

Marcus Semien Total Bases O/U 1.5

 

My disdain for Marco Gonzales not only fuels me on a day-to-day basis, but it also fuels this batter prop. First off, let’s just take a second to appreciate the record breaking 45 HRs Marcus Semien posted as a 2B last season. Unreal. While he has yet to hit one this season, it is only a matter of time until Semien gets right and goes off. Well, the time is now and facing Gonzalez provides Semien with the perfect opportunity to break out of this early season slump. With a career .204 ISO and 118 wRC+ against LHP, Semien is tailor-made for a big day and should inspire not only a win on this bet, but a win on the total over as well.

Pick: Semien OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+115 DK, +100 FD)

 

Carlos Carrasco to Record a Win

 

Hey, remember that Mets bet I recommended at the top of this article? Well, we are going right back to the well with Carlos Carrasco to record a win. Carrasco recorded 72 pitches in 5.2 innings in his first start and 82 pitches in 5 innings in his second, so we can expect a full workload from the 35-year old. Carrasco has always been a fairly efficient pitcher with the ability to limit walks and progress deep into games. In fact, in his last start against the Giants on August 26, 2021, Carrasco went 7 innings, allowing just 3 hits and 2 ERs while throwing just 78 pitches. That might be a little too much to expect from Carrasco today, but I think a quality start is well within reason and should produce a win for the New York Metropolitans.

Pick: Carrasco to Record a Win (+175 DK)

 

Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 9-7-0

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): $390.00

 

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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