With day baseball galore we take a look at at the best bets for Thursday, including a couple of interesting hitting props:
Ronald Acuna, Jr. to Hit a Home Run
Early season darling Trevor Rogers is riding high after throwing 6 shutout innings with 10 K’s in outdueling Jacob deGrom last time out. The Marlins as a team are also riding high having won four in a row as they go for the four-game sweep at Atlanta. The Braves have struggled on the mound, but one person who is not struggling is Ronald Acuna, Jr., who is the best baseball player in the world right now in my opinion. The 23-year old Acuna has six HR’s on the year already, including two last night with one coming against LH reliever Richard Bleier. Acuna has bashed LHP during his career to the tune of a 148 wRC+ and I can see him bringing Rogers back down to Earth very quickly this afternoon. Betting a player to hit a HR is always a bit of a longshot, but who better to take that shot on than Acuna, especially with a bit of a breeze (11 MPH) going out to center in Atlanta.
Pick: YES (+400 DK, +320 FD)
Indians @ White Sox Total Runs After 5 Innings O/U 4.5
If there is one game I am watching in the early slate it is the pitching duel between Aaron Civale and Lance Lynn in Chicago on Thursday. A pair of RHP’s who quite frankly aren’t the flashiest and don’t have the most dynamic stuff, Civale and Lynn have combined to allow just four ER’s over 28.1 IP this season and I look for that success to continue. The cold and windy early spring weather on the South Side have limited runs so far this season and the forecasted temperature for Thursday afternoon is a brisk 46 degrees. Over the last week, the Indians and White Sox have put up offensive numbers in the lower third of baseball (CLE 70 wRC+, CHW 97 wRC+). Oh and in case you didn’t hear, Cleveland was no-hit last night by Carlos Rodon. I’m thinking the ineptitude at the plate prevails for another game and to ensure that the bullpens don’t mess anything up, we are going with the under after the first five innings.
Pick: UNDER 4.5 (-143 DK, -140 FD)
Justin Turner Total Hits O/U 0.5
Justin Turner has started the year off scorching hot with a .390/.435/.732 slash line and he has posted at least two hits in 5 of his last 7 games. I honestly went looking for this line expecting it to be at 1.5 hits instead of 0.5. While the payout certainly won’t be as good, this essentially turns into a guarantee in my opinion. Underwhelming LHP Austin Gomber takes the mound for Colorado and while he is sporting a 2.89 ERA over 9.1 IP, it comes with a 6.66 xFIP and an unsustainable .091 BABIP. Turner also has three hits in four at-bats against Gomber, so as long as he doesn’t throw every pitch way out of the zone, Turner should be looking good for one hit tonight in Los Angeles.
Pick: OVER 0.5 (-245 DK)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 7-3-0
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +513.07
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)