Happy September! Two weeks ago’s 2-1 showing (did not release a Best Bets last week) has me right up against the green. It’s shame too because I was one Frankie Montas strikeout from being positive for the first time since June. No matter, we have scratched and clawed to a 27-29-1 (-0.1u) record and this is the week to finally get over the hump.
Yu Darvish O/U 6.5 Ks
Darvish returned on August 26th after missing two weeks with a back injury to face the Dodgers. A tough task, he responded just adequately allowing four ER in six IP. More importantly, he struck out six Dodgers and surpassed 100 pitches. That SHOULD mean he has no workload concerns heading into this afternoon’s start against the Diamondbacks.
Arizona is not a good hitting team. They have been better since Ketel Marte returned from his hamstring injury and the emergence of Daulton Varsho lengthened their lineup, but they have the fourth-highest K% in the majors since August 1st at 25.7%.
Pick: OVER 6.5 (+115 DraftKings, +120 Fan Duel)
Rangers vs Rockies Run Line
The Rockies are in Arlington for a series that is (fairly) off most casual fans’ radars. And it should be! These teams are a combined 50 games under .500 and without many exciting individual players to think of. Moreover, the Rockies are the worst offensive team away from home by wOBA (catalyzing their insane 17-50 road record) while the Rangers are fourth-worst at home. Smells like an under to me.
Pick: UNDER 8.5 RUNS (-110 DK, -105 FD)
Royals vs Cleveland Moneyline
This line stuck out to me as being very surprising. I have no idea why the Royals would be favored over Cleveland with a worse record, worse roster, and no clear advantage in the pitching matchup.
Jackson Kowar is going up against Logan Allen in said matchup. Kowar struggled tremendously in his first exposure to the majors back in June walking five hitters and only striking out three in three starts. Allen has traditionally been unimpressive, but held the Red Sox to just one run in six innings last week with five punchouts. I see no reason for these odds being where they are.
Pick: CLEVELAND (+115 DK, +112 FD)
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)