Week 5 of my picks and we are still managing to win some money! 2-2 last week (thank you NFL Draft) has us sitting at a cool 8-4-1 (+4.3u) and ready to find a few winners on this rainy afternoon in NYC.
John Means O/U 6.5 Ks
Means is enjoying a nice breakout this season with a 1.70 ERA and 27.3 K% through 37 IP. He has more supporters at Pitcher List than I can count, and with good reason. His changeup, a longtime calling-card, seems to be better than ever early on in 2021 earning a 37.4 Whiff% and allowing just a 78.9 average exit velocity on 32 BBE.
He will face off against the Mariners this afternoon. As a team, they’ve posted the 7th highest K% and 8th highest SwSt% so far this season. More important to Means, they have the 6th highest Whiff% against changeups in 2021. That’s enough for me to ride Means’ hot-hand.
Pick: OVER 6.5 Ks (-106 DraftKings, +108 FanDuel)
Shane Bieber O/U 9.5 Ks
A freak of nature, Bieber’s herculean start to the season would be getting way more love if Jacob deGrom didn’t exist. He is striking out nearly 40% of opposing hitters while his Whiff% and Chase% both sit in the top 5% of the league. He faces off against the Royals this evening, losers of two straight at the hands of Cleveland. Ironically, I sat here last week, bet, and won a K under against the Royals just last week citing their low K% as a team and their organizational philosophy preaching contact. Nevertheless, I’m riding with Bieber today.
Pick: OVER 9.5 Ks (+128 DK)
Rangers @ Twins O/U 9 Runs Scored
Somewhat of a bullpen day, the Twins recalled Lewis Thorpe to start today’s game against Hyeon-Jong Yang and the Rangers. Thorpe is an SP by trade, but a slew of injuries and general ineffectiveness have held him to just 4 starts in 21 major league appearances. Not the basis for someone to give length. Similarly, Yang is a rookie out of the KBO and will be making his first MLB start this season after appearing in two games as a reliever.
A workhorse back in Korea, Yang has not pitched fewer than 170 innings in a season since 2013 but has not yet been entrusted with such a role with the Rangers. I expect both bullpens to be used early and often today helping us towards this number. Big day for overs!
Pick: OVER 9 Runs scored (-107 DK, O8.5 FD -122)
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)