Welcome back to Best Bets, Wednesday edition. I’m your host, Tim Speros, but you can call me cousin Timmy. My goal for this article is to hit for the cycle. The four hits will start with a single, our most likely bet to hit according to the odds, and will finish with my Home Run call of the night, our most difficult bet to hit according to the odds. Grab your helmet, adjust your batting gloves if you’re wearing any, and step up to the plate, it’s time to swing the bat.
Last week was good to me, going 3-for-4 with the only miss being the Home Run call for Bryce Harper. Harper had three hits including a triple that night. It was the right call, we just needed a slightly better launch angle from Bryce. Ready to win some money? Let’s get to tonight’s action.
The Phillies (11-13) play host to Martín Pérez and the Texas Rangers (9-14) who have won three straight games. Zack Wheeler is on the hill for Philly looking to end their two-game skid. Wheeler has had a slow start to 2022 including a 7 ER, 4BB game in Miami. Although he pitched better in his last start (6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 7K) he still had 4 BB. His 21.4 K% should start to get closer to his 29.1 K% of 2021 and his 9.5 BB% is much higher than the 5.6 BB% he’s averaged over the past three seasons. Texas does not strikeout much (22%), but they are 27th in hitting over the past two weeks. This is a great bounce-back spot for Wheeler and I expect the Phillies to jump all over Martín Pérez. Pérez has started off great but I don’t think he’ll sustain this success as his ERA has been above 4.70 in three of his four seasons.
Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-180) FanDuel Sportsbook
For the next three bets, I’m all in on the Cardinals against the Royals. If you’re into parlays, this would be a good one to build. Kris Bubic is bad, and we’ll get into his stats in the next few bets. Goldy has a .367 OBP on the season and vs. LHP, that bumps up to .412. He’s been batting second in the lineup in front of two power hitters, Tyler O’Neill and Nolan Arenado, who both crush LHP. Goldy has 9 BB and has scored 12 runs in 21 games. Bubic has walked 9 batters in 12 innings of work, making today a great opportunity for Goldy to get on base. I’m banking on the Cardinals scoring 5+ runs today and Goldschmidt should get one of them.
Paul Goldschmidt OVER 0.5 Runs (-130) FanDuel Sportsbook
The Cardinals (13-10) have Adam Wainwright going tonight vs. Kris Bubic and the Royals (8-14). I hate to hammer this home, but I’m going to. The Royals laid the smackdown on the Cardinals yesterday recording 15 hits on their way to a 7-1 victory. But that was yesterday and today we have two different pitchers going. Adam Wainwright is throwing for the Redbirds and has 8 BB in his last 11 innings which has hurt him big time. He does a great job limiting hard contact at only 19.8% and if he can limit the free passes today he should have an easy time with the 28th ranked offense in the majors. I think we’ll see multiple home runs hit for the Cardinals tonight and I love them to cover this spread at plus odds.
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+130) FanDuel Sportsbook
You made it. We are three bets in and I’m ready to call my shot. I’m 2-for-4 in home run calls that have produced massive ROIs to keep our bankroll flourishing. How do I do it? Well, it’s all about matchups and who’s hitting the ball hard. Bomb squad leader of the day is Nolan Arenado! Kris Bubic is on the hill for the Kansas City Royals and he’s been more of a court jester than a king this season. 12 IP, 14 ER, 9 BB, and a 27.3 HR/FB %. Arenado has 3 HR and a 46.7% hard contact rate vs. LHP this season. Arenado, Tyler O’Neill, and Dylan Carlson have all hit home runs off of Bubic before and I’m betting it happens again today.
Nolan Arenado to hit a HR (+440) FanDuel Sportsbook
There you have it folks, another chance to hit for the cycle with me in 2022. Good luck tonight and I hope you win some beer money for the weekend. See you next time.
Tim Speros Overall Record: 10-6-0
Net Money (Assuming all bets are individual wagers of $100): $968.00
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)