Woof! After a hot start, last week was a disaster. 0-for-4 on my picks. One bad call and some bad luck. Erick Fedde got shelled and the Nationals lost 11-2. Manny Machado’s total bases prop got some bad luck with him going 0-for-1 with 2 walks, and an HBP. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. failed to record an RBI due to 3 walks and a home run by Bo Bichette leaving no men on base. You win some, you lose some, but you live to bet again!
Welcome to Best Bets, Wednesday edition. I’m your host, Tim Speros, but you can call me cousin Timmy. My goal for this article is to hit for the cycle. The four hits will start with a single, our most likely bet to hit according to the odds, and will finish with my Home Run call of the night, our most difficult bet to hit according to the odds. Grab your helmet, adjust your batting gloves if you’re wearing any, and step up to the plate, it’s time to swing the bat. Ready to win some money? Let’s go.
The biggest favorites today are the New York Yankees at home vs. the Baltimore Orioles. This seems like the easy pick with Jordan Montgomery on the hill for the Bronx Bombers. Montgomery faced the Orioles 11 days ago in Baltimore and pitched ok. He did not excite me during his 71 pitches with a line of 5 IP, 2 BB, 2K, 0 ER, and a 22.5 CSW%. JoMo should be stretched out now after throwing 86 pitches vs Detroit in his last start. He did show some promising signs finishing that game with a 31.4 CSW%. The Orioles are 3-8 on the road this season and have Tyler Wells on the mound. Wells pitched well in 4 innings vs the Yanks in his second start with a line of 4 IP, o ER, 2 BB, and 3K, but facing the same team back-to-back is always dicey. The Orioles have a 26.7 K% (2nd worst) and have the worst ISO in the majors at just .083. The Yankees are coming in hot after scoring 12 runs on the O’s last night. New York has a .325 wOBA over the last week along with 12 HR. Take the Yankees tonight, profit is profit.
New York Yankees Money Line (-250) DraftKings Sportsbook
The Padres are playing the Reds again, this time in Cincinnati. Manny Machado has been amazing so far and has carried the load for the Padres without Fernando Tatis Jr. Machado has a .425 OBP and is third in the majors with 13 runs scored. Vladimir Gutierrez will face the Padres for the second time this season, attempting to redeem himself from the 3 ER and 4 BB in 4.1 innings last week. Machado is 1-for-4 with 4 BB in his career vs. V-Gut. The run total for this game is 8.5 and Machado should have plenty of chances to round the bases. I got the Padres putting up 5+ runs today and with a little luck, Machado should score one of those runs.
Manny Machado OVER 0.5 Runs (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
The X-Man cometh! Bogaerts is the hottest hitting SS over the past week. He’s hitting .448 with 5 doubles and a 45% hard contact rate. He racked up another 3 hits last night and gets Ross Stripling tonight. In 24 career innings vs the Red Sox, Stripling has been smacked around for 20 ER and 7 HR. At plus odds and a game environment, I expect a lot of runs out of, this might be my favorite bet of the night.
Xander Bogaerts OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+105) DraftKings Sportsbook
You made it. We are three bets in and I’m ready to call my shot. I’m 2-for-3 in home run calls that have produced massive ROIs and kept our bankroll flourishing. How do I do it? Well, it’s all about matchups and who’s hitting the ball hard. I like some guys in the Red Sox / Blue Jays game and also we can’t rule out Yankees tonight vs. the Orioles. However, my HR call of the night is in the city of brotherly love, Bryce Harper! Citizens Bank Park is ranked the 6th best park for LHH to homer in. Over the past week, Bryce Harper has a 55.6% hard contact rate, 3rd best in the majors. He’ll be facing rookie pitcher Ryan Feltner from the Rockies who has only pitched 11 innings in the majors. The Rockies bullpen has a 4.50 ERA which is the worst in the majors. This is a good spot for the 2018 Home Run Derby Champion.
Bryce Harper to hit an HR (+360) DraftKings Sportsbook
There you have it folks, another chance to hit for the cycle with me in 2022. Good luck tonight and I hope you win some beer money for the weekend. See you next time.
Tim Speros Overall Record: 7-5-0
Net Money (Assuming all bets are individual wagers of $100): $833.00
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)