Best Bets of the Day – April 21st

Get hot to stay hot.

Week 3 for my picks and folks, we are on fire. A 3-0 run last Wednesday has us sitting at a cool 5-0-1 (+5.4u) on the young campaign. Can I stay this hot forever? Certainly not, but we’re going to try!

 

Zach Eflin O/U 5.5 Ks

 

Eflin seems to have finally taken the step forward many have been waiting for, especially those in the fantasy community. We have not yet seen the increased velocity that helped to raise his status last season early on, but velo almost always ticks up as the season wears on and the weather warms. Despite being a bit slow, Eflin has kept his K% above 20 (not elite, sure) so far and totaled 14 Ks in 14 IP at home. Those games came against the Braves and Cardinals, both offenses a step up from the Giants.

Being a day game after a night game, I am expecting the Giants to sit a few regulars. I have procrastinated on posting this here since it is barely an hour before first pitch and the Giants have somehow STILL not released a lineup, but there’s no doubt a few guys will be on the shelf.

Pick: OVER 5.5 Ks (DraftKings -143)

 

Bruce Zimmerman O/U 4.5 Ks

 

More strikeouts! If you’ve been following me since last season, you will know these are my favorite plays. Zimmerman was one of the darlings of Spring Training and has had a good-not-great start to this season. I fell in love with his new curveball, and it has not disappointed thus far, earning a 47.8 Whiff% on 51 pitches thrown. After throwing just two in all of 2020, this is a material change that should affect the way we judge Zimmerman’s skillset.

Even better, he is facing off against a banged-up Marlins lineup this afternoon (I love day games after night games for pitchers) down in Miami. No DH is a huge win, as are the injuries to Starling Marte and Jorge Alfaro for this total. To make matters even better, Brian Anderson is out of the lineup as well! This is a smash pick.

Pick: OVER 4.5 (+130 DK, +128 FanDuel)

 

Brewers Total O/U 2.5 Runs Scored

 

This line is exceedingly disrespectful, no mincing words here. The Brewers have flown under the radar (per usual) and risen to first place in the NL Central right under everyone’s nose. Of course, that is mostly due to the stellar starting pitching they’ve gotten, but their run production has been at least passable over the past handful of games. In classic Brewers fashion, the likes of Dan Vogelbach, Avisaíl García, Omar Narváez, and Travis Shaw have shouldered the load in the wake of Christian Yelich‘s stiff back to keep the offense churning.

Additionally, they get Dinelson Lamet today. Making his season debut far earlier than most anticipated, Lamet is certain to be on a pitch restriction. He and the Padres are adamant he is not adhering to any limit, but I have a very hard time believing that given his importance to their year-long success and his checkered injury history. Expect Lamet to struggle with command early, leaving the door open for a game pitched mostly by the Padres’ bullpen.

Pick: OVER 2.5 Runs (-143 DK)

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

James Schiano

Graduate of The Ohio State University and New York City dweller, I am a die-hard Mets fan who can generally be found screaming at the TV or making wise-cracks to anyone who'll hear them. Follow me on Twitter @JeterHadNoRange

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