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Rangers @ Angels Run Line
Kyle Gibson and Dylan Bundy have been two of the most up and down starters in baseball in 2020. In his most recent start, Gibson pitched a complete game shutout of the Astros with 9 K’s, after allowing 10 hits and 5 ER to the Angels in 5.2 IP just 6 days earlier. Bundy followed up 12 K’s in 7.1 IP against the Rangers in that same game with 5 ER in 2.2 IP against Arizona on September 16.
What will decide this game is the fact that these two teams have been on the opposite ends of the leaderboard in hitting over the past week. The Angels have posted a 139 wRC+ over the last week, good for 2nd in baseball, while the Rangers have put up an abysmal 3.4 BB% and 34.3 K%, producing an MLB-worst 31 wRC+. Several Angels hitters have had success against Gibson in the past, including Jared Walsh, Anthony Rendon, and Mike Trout, and Los Angeles is simply the better team at this point in the season.
Pick: Angels -1.5 (+102 DK, -102 FD)
Brewers @ Reds Total O/U 7.5
Two of the most electric pitchers in baseball coupled with two of the better bullpens in the game foreshadow a game devoid of runs between Milwaukee and Cincinnati on Monday. Brandon Woodruff has complete 7 IP in each of his last two starts and was dominant on September 11 allowing just one hit with 12 K’s while holding the Cubs scoreless. Luis Castillo was equally as impressive in his last start, shutting out the lowly Pirates with 10 K’s over 7 IP.
With both teams coming into the game at exactly .500, this is essentially a playoff game entering the final week of the regular season. The Brewers and Reds will certainly be on top of their games and both have been playing reasonably well coming into the game. I’m expecting playoff-esque performances from both Woodruff and Castillo here and a hit on the under.
Pick: UNDER 7.5 Runs (-120 DK/FD)
Lance McCullers K’s O/U 5.5
If Lance McCullers is on like he was in his last start against Texas, 6 strikeouts is a cakewalk. The 26-year old returned from a brief stint on the IL with a neck procedure to shut out the Rangers over 7 IP with 8 K’s. The return to form was very encouraging for McCullers, who has shown the capacity for dominance when healthy. On Monday he gets a Mariners offense that is starting to fade down the stretch and has whiffed an ugly 33.3% of the time over the past week. Over 5.5 for McCullers should be a lock if he can make it past the 4th inning, something he has done in all but one of his last 6 starts.
Pick: OVER 5.5 Ks (-144 FD)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 26-26-2
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)