Happy Sunday! The end is in sight and it’s time to win a few wagers. I went 1-2 last week and lost 0.8u dropping my overall record to 13-13, but still +1.5u on the campaign. Let’s get up over .500 today!
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Red Sox O/U 3.5 Runs
Remember when the Yankees lost 7 of 8 games and were in danger of missing the playoffs? They have wiped all doubt away with a 10 game win streak and are primed to beat up on the Red Sox again today. Deivi Garcia is on the bump today and has been a revelation this season, striking out 24 batters in his first 24 2/3 career while only walking 4. Additionally, the Red Sox are a sneaky bad offense: 16th in runs scored on the season and victims of a shutout yesterday. Look for them to go under this total today.
Pick: UNDER 3.5 Runs (+105 DK)
White Sox O/U 4.5 Runs
Michael Lorenzen made his first start of the season on Tuesday for the Reds and impressed only allowing 1 run in 5 innings while striking out 6. That being said, that was against the lowly Pirates, who have one of the worst offenses in recent memory. Today, he has the first-place White Sox and there is no guarantee how many innings he will even throw. FTN’s Lineup Optimizer predicts them to score more than 4.5 runs, and up against Lorenzen and the Reds pen, I think they are going to blow past this number.
Pick: OVER 4.5 Runs (+110 DK)
Dylan Cease O/U 4.5 Strikeouts
Sticking with this game, Dylan Cease is throwing for the White Sox and he is having an unbelievably strange season. Ben Clemens (@_Ben_Clemens) of FanGraphs wrote a great piece about just that earlier this week, citing the shockingly low amount of strikeouts and whiffs Cease gets, especially given his unbelievable stuff. He is only striking out 15.7% of opposing batters this season and while his fastball sits above the 94th percentile in both velocity and spin-rate, it only generates a 16.3% whiff rate. I do not think he will beat this number today.
Pick: UNDER 4.5 Ks (+125 DK)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)