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There are 20 games scheduled for Friday. Yes, you read that right. Twenty. Eager to make up lost games before September ends, MLB has booked five doubleheaders. Of course, remember that those matchups will last a brisk seven innings apiece before locking in any bets. These wagers will focus on some of the evening’s full-length battles.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Indians: O/U 8 (-114/-106 DK, -114/-106 FD)
As of Thursday night, Cleveland and Milwaukee rank 24th and 27th in team wRC+, respectively. Per DraftKings, 10 of Cleveland’s 16 games at Progressive Field have hit the under, collectively averaging 7.6 runs per contest. While the Brew Crew went over in five of their last six bouts, Carlos Carrasco poses a tougher adversary than those presented by the Pirates and Tigers. Although the righty hasn’t looked as sharp as usual, he’s still touting a 3.75 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 36 innings. He most recently yielded two hits in six shutout innings against the Cardinals last Saturday.
On the other end, Corbin Burnes boasts a 2.78 ERA and magnificent 35.1% strikeout rate after accruing 10 punchouts in six scoreless frames against the Pirates last Friday. The gem marked the first time he completed six frames, a sign he’s earning trust as a legitimate top starter. If both starters can succeed for six innings again, each side will be in good shape to finish strong. After taking a breather Thursday, Milwaukee will have the dominant duo of Devin Williams and Josh Hader fresh for the late innings of what has the makings of a close, low-scoring affair. Cleveland, meanwhile, possesses baseball’s third-best bullpen ERA (2.49) behind James Karinchak and Brad Hand. Per Fade The Noise’s Bullpen Usage Report, it’s also been one of the game’s least taxed units over the last two weeks.
Pick: Under
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Moneyline (+128/-150 DK, +124/-152 FD)
How much should we really trust Josh Fleming? After blanking Miami in last Saturday’s 4-0 triumph, the newcomer has won each of his first two starts. That’s an awfully small sample size for a pitcher who has never posted a K/9 above 6.9 across five minor-league stops. In just four career Triple-A outings, he surrendered 24 hits, eight walks, and 13 runs (12 earned) in 21 innings. Call me a Debbie Downer, but I’m not sold just yet.
Pablo López, on the other hand, looks legit. He wields a 2.10 ERA and a 2.26 FIP bested only by Shane Bieber, Yu Darvish, and Jacob deGrom through six stellar starts. The 24-year-old righty has issued just seven walks while inducing ground balls at an astounding 60.2% clip. A 13.4% swinging-strike rate is also the highest mark of his early career. Of course, the Rays are the superior Florida team beyond the starting pitchers. That’s why they swept the Marlins last week and are heavy favorites to win again Friday night. Fleming bested López last time, but the 16-16 Marlins warrant the risk as capable underdogs sending their ace to the mound.
Pick: Marlins
Total Runs by Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 (-120/+104 DK)
The Phillies are starting to percolate. They jumped to second in the NL East by winning nine of their last 10 games, a stretch in which they’ve averaged 5.9 runs. Heading into another pivotal clash with the Mets, the Phillies have deposited at least five runs in 17 of 26 full games, excluding seven-inning doubleheaders. Last time they encountered their nearby nemesis, they won all three games with a ‘6’ on their scorecard.
That includes a meeting against Rick Porcello, whom they tattooed to 10 hits and four runs over six frames. Backed by a rickety bullpen, the Mets have relinquished 46 combined runs in Porcello’s seven starts. That already shaky unit will limp into this contest. Relief ace Seth Lugo is now in the rotation, and Dellin Betances is on the shelf. Meanwhile, Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, and Chasen Shreve each worked at least two innings in Thursday’s 10-inning comeback win over the Yankees. Unloading his reservoir yesterday will compel manager Luis Rojas to either reach deep into his bullpen for innings or push Porcello regardless of his efficacy.
While this is technically a battle of Cy Young Award winner between Porcello and Jake Arrieta, scoring should not be scarce. It’s hardly a bad idea to just take the game’s over, which is 9.5 at -117 on DraftKings and -120 on FanDuel. Philadelphia’s red-hot form paired with New York’s vulnerable bullpen, however, makes this side the focus. Also take a look at the Phillies’ moneyline in case the even odds don’t budge on DraftKings.
Pick: Over
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)