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Run lines are often too risky to embrace in baseball betting. A bad team can beat a juggernaut any given day, and the payouts are often unflattering for a heavy favorite or modest underdog. Friday’s early lines, however, provide two intriguing spreads. A surging favorite and pesky underdog could both send bettors into the weekend on a strong note.
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: Run Line
I started my research preparing to write about the evening’s highest over-under line (10.5). Then it became clear that the Yankees are positioned to score many, many runs. Boston? Meh. New York’s 5.5-run team line comes at -134 odds at DraftKings, so there’s a bit more value in tackling the spread.
The Yankees, who just welcomed back Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, obliterated the Blue Jays for 33 runs in three games. Only the Braves have hit more home runs in September. Toronto’s pitching staff look like All-Stars compared to Boston, which has the worst team ERA and FIP in all of baseball. Friday’s starter, Martín Pérez, has a 5.13 FIP this season along with a career .350 wOBA allowed against righties. Stanton, Judge, D.J. LeMahieu, and MLB home run leader Luke Voit — who added four long balls to his tally in the last three days — are all right-handed.
The Bronx Bombers have already beat down Boston this season, going 7-0 with 50 runs scored. One problem: the Red Sox haven’t held their end of a rivalry known for slug fests, producing just 23 combined runs in those head-to-head meetings. Perhaps they won’t contribute enough against the solid Jordan Montgomery to meet the matchup’s towering run line. Rather than risk a 7-3 Yankees triumph, take the sizzling Yankees to extend their win streak to nine with a decisive triumph over the AL East’s last-place squad.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-122/+104 DraftKings, -124/+106 FanDuel)
Total Runs by Angels: O/U 4.5
The Angels are performing a bit closer to what one would expect from an offense spearheaded by Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. They’ve scored at least five runs in each of their last five games — two at Coors, but 21 combined in the other three at Arizona. Prior to Thursday’s 7-3 victory over the Diamondbacks, they boasted an AL-high .354 OBP and 126 wRC+ in September.
It’s not all Trout and Rendon. Jared Walsh has smacked seven home runs in 13 games this month. Per Fade The Noise’s Hot Hitter Report, only Salvador Pérez has a higher wRC+ over the last two weeks. Seemingly left for dead a couple of weeks ago, Justin Upton went from hitting .138 through August to .326 with three homers over his past dozen games. David Fletcher has returned from the IL to compile eight hits in his last four games.
Outside of Walsh, all the Angels mentioned above are righties. They’ll get to take hacks against southpaw Wes Benjamin, who will make his first-ever MLB start. The 27-year-old has pitched well from the bullpen, recording 13 strikeouts with just 13 baserunners allowed in 12.1 innings. He also, however, posted a 5.52 ERA in Triple-A last year and has topped out at 94 mph in his recent relief roll. A streaking Angels lineup could pounce on him early. Even if they don’t, Benjamin will likely hand the ball off to a lackluster bullpen (4.76 ERA) fairly soon. Look for the Halos, whose runs per game average rounds up to 5.0 despite a rough start, to hit the over. While some distrust of the Rangers puts the focus on the opponents, the full over run line has paid off in 20 of 26 games at Angel Stadium this season.
Pick: Over (-129/+110 DraftKings)
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners: Run Line
Only the biggest underdogs have any juice to squeeze from a run line. This is no exception. The 32-19 Padres brandish the NL’s second-best record and run differential (plus-79) behind the Dodgers. While the 22-28 Mariners still have a conceivable chance of stealing a playoff bid from the Astros, they possess baseball’s fifth-worst run differential (minus-59).
Under normal circumstances, the pitching matchup would also work in San Diego’s favor. However, Chris Paddack left his last start with a sprained ankle. He’s recovered enough to return Friday night, but that doesn’t mean we’ll see the ace of 2019. The Sheriff is now saddled with a 4.75 ERA and 4.64 FIP. Much of that damage stems from Seattle socking him to six runs on August 25. With the playoffs firmly in hand, the Padres aren’t likely to test his limits either.
The results have yet to match the encouraging surface numbers for Yusei Kikuchi, who has a stellar 2.68 FIP underneath his nearly doubled 5.35 ERA. Rick Porcello is the only other starting pitcher (min. 30 IP) with a larger ERA-FIP discrepancy. That may not inspire too much confidence against a lethal San Diego lineup, but Kikuchi is at least more than capable of out-pitching Paddack.
While the Mariners have gotten blown out often, they have also suffered eight losses by exactly one run. That means they’ve covered the run line more often than not in a season where they’ve played 20 of 50 games against the Dodgers, Astros, A’s, and Padres. Seattle took two of three in a late-August meeting against the Friars, including a victory over Paddack and a separate win with Kikuchi on the mound.
Pick: Mariners +1.5 (-112/-107 DraftKings, -110/-106 FanDuel)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)