Adam Eaton (OF, Washington Nationals) is the classic jack-of-all-trades but master of none. He had a strong night at the plate on Tuesday (2-4, 2 R, BB, SB) which was also a good illustration of what exactly he brings to the table—a little bit of speed, not much power (both hits were singles), run scoring (but no runners batted in), and good plate discipline. While he does provide some value in three categories with a solid good batting average and OBP, decent runs scored, and double-digit stolen bases, he doesn’t do anything that will specifically catch your attention.
He’s certainly not the only example of this type of production. David Fletcher, Jeff McNeil (well, when he isn’t hitting .348), and DJ LeMahieu are examples of other guys like Eaton who are primarily known for providing batting average as opposed to power, speed, or counting stats. So how do we value them? It’s easy to compare players who provide raw counting stats because it’s easier to conceptualize how to catch up in categories such as RBI and home runs. You can see how many more you need and look for guys who can get you there, and you can just keep an eye on the box scores each day to see how much ground you’re making up (or losing). It’s not quite so easy with batting average, though. How much does a 2-4 night affect your overall batting average? It certainly helps, of course, but how much? What does your team need to do to raise your overall OBP by five points? In the grand scheme of things, how does 10 points of a player’s batting average compare to five extra home runs or stolen bases? Those answers take a lot of math, and I’m not all that good at math.
Without going into all of that math and making myself look stupid, I’ll simply state that batting average is as important as any other statistic, even though it’s not talked about all that much. In roto and H2H categories leagues, you should be paying attention to your team’s overall batting average or OBP just as much as runs, RBI, and steals. Players such as Eaton are really quite valuable, despite the uninteresting counting numbers, because they provide a statistic that is, quite frankly, one of the toughest to find on the waiver wire. Unlike home runs, which seemingly anyone can hit these days, strong ratios tend to be reserved for top-quality hitters. Most players on the waiver wire don’t have the kind of contact skills to consistently generate high batting averages, so locking up players who can buoy that category is an excellent strategy.
In points leagues, this all gets much easier to look at. Hits are points, and a strong batting average means lots of hits and points. If only it were so simple in the other formats, Eaton and players like him might get the respect they deserve.
Michael Conforto (OF, New York Mets)—4-4, R, RBI. This is shaping up to be the third season in a row with close to 30 home runs and an OBP north of .350. His plate discipline helps him stand out in the sea of 30-home run hitters, though he’s considerably less interesting in batting average formats, where I suspect he’s a bit overrated.
Alex Dickerson (OF, San Francisco Giants)—4-5, 2 R, 2B, 2 RBI. At one point back in 2016 and 2017, Dickerson was an interesting prospect who looked like he could hit for a solid batting average while providing some power. He is willing to take a walk at a slightly above-average rate and keeps the strikeouts down, and he should get a decent chance at playing time in San Francisco. Those in deep formats who are in need of an outfielder might want to see how much juice they can squeeze from this orange.
Willy Adames (SS, Tampa Bay Rays)—3-4, 2 2B. I really wish I could be excited about the young middle infielder, but a shortstop who can’t hit 20 home runs or steal 10 bases is really difficult to roster. Unlike the guys I mentioned in the opening, Adames doesn’t provide much batting average, either.
Mookie Betts (OF, Boston Red Sox)—3-5, R, 2 RBI. He’s put together an eight-game hitting streak and has failed to score a run just once since June 15. Sure, he’s disappointed a bit as the consensus second overall pick, but he’s been far from a bad player.
Matt Chapman (3B, Oakland Athletics)—3-4, R, HR, 2B, 5 RBI. He’s just two home runs away from matching his total from 2018, but just as impressive is the growth in plate discipline. He’s walking more and striking out less, which is helping him support his .280 batting average. If he finishes the season with 35 home runs to go along with a .275 batting average, he’ll be on a lot of top-10 lists for 2020 third baseman.
Hunter Dozier (3B, Kansas City Royals)—3-5, R, HR, 3B, 3 RBI. Pitchers seem to have figured out Dozier as his strikeout rate has jumped considerably as the months have gone by. That change has turned him from a promising fantasy asset to just another third baseman in most formats, and we’d need to see a big adjustment from Dozier for me to feel comfortable with him outside of deep leagues.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (2B/SS/OF, Toronto Blue Jays)—3-5, R, 3B, 2B, SB. Will this guy stop adding new wrinkles to his game? In addition to tearing the cover off the ball, he now has three steals in his past six games. While it’s easy to say that he won’t “keep this up”, it’s also worth noting that I am no longer sure what he’ll be when he cools off. What I do know is that it’s likely a lot better than I originally thought.
Keston Hiura (2B, Milwaukee Brewers)—3-3, 3 R, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB. He put three balls in play, and all three had an exit velocity of at least 100 mph. The rookie second baseman does exciting things when he makes contact, but the 32% strikeout rate will make it tough to reach his full potential.
Omar Narvaez (C, Seattle Mariners)—3-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI. His ability to make consistent contact combined with an impressive surge in power has made Narvaez a top-five catcher. He’s floating out there on waiver wires in 30% of leagues but should be universally owned. He’s one of maybe five or six catchers who are above the streaming threshold.
Christian Yelich (OF, Milwaukee Brewers)—1-3, 3 R, HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, SB. There was quite a bit of chatter about my comment yesterday that Cody Bellinger wouldn’t be MVP. It’s not because Bellinger isn’t deserving. It’s because Yelich is going to put up numbers we haven’t really seen before. He’s the clear No. 2 pick in 2020.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF, Atlanta Braves)—1-4, 2 SB. Our own Travis Sherer ranked him seventh among all dynasty assets, and I’m inclined to agree. This kid is the real deal.
Shohei Ohtani (DH, Los Angeles Angels)—2-4, R, RBI, SB. He’s a top-10 player for me in 2020 in all formats except Yahoo (where he’s two different players). Power, speed, plate discipline, and pitching? Sign me up. I believe.
Ramon Laureano (OF, Oakland Athletics)—2-4, 2 R, 2B, SB. The ESPN Player Rater has him as the fifth-best outfielder over the past 30 days and the 12th-best outfielder this season thanks to 18 home runs, 12 steals, and a solid .268 batting average. He’s somehow available in roughly 50% of leagues, and if you’re in one of those leagues you should make room for him immediately.
Tim Locastro (OF, Arizona Diamondbacks)—2-4, 2 R, SB. According to Baseball Savant, he’s the fastest player in baseball, which is pretty impressive in its own right. It’s hard to say how much fantasy value that will lead to, as he hasn’t shown the kind of base-stealing ability that Byron Buxton, Terrance Gore, or Billy Hamilton have with their speed, but his plate discipline is much better than any of those guys, so those in NL-only or 15-team formats in desperate need of stolen bases might get some mileage out of the speedy outfielder.
Oscar Mercado (OF, Cleveland Indians)—1-2, R, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, SB. Another combo meal, right after I said he won’t slug .454 for the rest of the season. Why do I even bother, ya know? I still don’t think he’ll hit for this much power, but he’s worth owning in 12-teamers for the speed and counting stats.
(Photo by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire)
Hunter Dozier’s rough patch coincided with facing a lot of really good pitching. I’m no expert, but I can see how that would hurt confidence, and cause him to chase some. I feel like he will regain his form from a couple months ago.
I think a lot of people in Kansas City hope you’re right, Zach. His major and minor league numbers suggest that the high strikeout rate he’s shown lately is more indicative of his talent than the low one he had early this season, though. He’s gotten worse against offspeed stuff as the season as progressed (and he was already not good against them to begin with) and his swinging strike rate on offspeed pitches is over 60% since the start of June. Even when he does hit them, his xwOBA is south of .100 in that same time period. He’ll need to correct that in a hurry to remain a big league starter.
Isn’t it funny that we have a hard time evaluating players with traditional skill sets? Talk about throwing out the baby with the bath water. Everyone predictably wants analysis to be as simple as one catch-all statistic, but that statistic is inherently arbitrary. The value is understanding the progressive stats of the day and what they miss – which is BA and low-er BB players. As our analytical tools trend toward algorithmic analysis of arbitrary data the trick is understanding the algorithm – what it is and what it isn’t
There are basically two branches of progressive sabermetrics. One is OPS derivatives like wOBA and RC+. The other is Statcast data. OPS derivatives worship HR and BB and they miss a lot but they are the best we have if you insist on one stat. Statcast data is worthless IMO. People like to think that there is some great truth in batted balls, but there certainly is not. If this were a HR derby, then yeah it would be pretty relevant but real baseball is a lot more complicated than that. It kills me that people are wanting the Statcast data to be the authoritative indicator of legitimacy, when that couldn’t be any more false. The realities that happen on the field are all that really matters. Statcast very much looks for dead-pull hitters with swing and issues – that is how you generate EV, which fuels barrels. If you want to see how irrelevant Statcast is – watch that worthless graphic predicting SB based on the runner’s lead – that’s all you need to know! Another fun exersise is to wactach a real game and also watch the BaseballSavant game feed for hit probability. That tells you just how absurd batted ball models are.
While I do think there’s quite a bit of value in Statcast data, you have brought up one of the key flaws—it does not currently account for batted ball direction in its expected stats. It will give low hit probabilities to most grounders because many grounders are easy outs; however, grounders hit to certain spots in the infield can be virtually impossible to field and turn into singles. Because expected stats rely on league-wide averages based on comparative exit velocities and launch angles, they’re really difficult to use effectively in small samples. As these stats develop with more technology and tracking, I think we’ll be able to get even more useful information from the expected stats.
Today I traded Alonso and Renfroe for Matt Chapman. Already have Freeman in the 1B spot, and losing Renfroe gives me the slot for Laureano everyday. Swap Chapman in for Kingery, and I’m a force!
I am 100% OK with this in a redraft format, Eric. You gave up a lot of home runs in Alonso and Renfroe, but if there’s one stat that you can probably find on the cheap, it’s home runs. The batting average Chapman has shown and the speed Laureano brings to the table are much more difficult assets to acquire than dingers.