Trevor Sour

Nick Pollack reviews every starting pitcher performance from Wednesday.

Trevor Bauer @ SD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 10 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 102 pitches.

It’s time we talked about Trevor Bauer after he went 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 10 Ks against the Padres Wednesday night. It’s the fourth game in five starts for Bauer where he’s allowed at least three earned runs and it comes at a very specific time — when his rpm rates are heavily dropping with goopgate arriving in full force (nearly 200 rpm drop on his four-seamer tonight!). Should we still be considering Bauer as a Top 20 arm if he doesn’t have the same spin rates?

Bauer’s four-seamer had acted as one of the best pitches in baseball before MLB made it clear they were going to issue suspensions for Spider Tack, and it hasn’t been the same since — yes, 40% CSW tonight, but on the back of called strikes as it went just 2/25 whiffs. However, Bauer’s slider and cutter still performed well, and given the Dodgers’ affinity for letting Bauer go over 100 pitches in each outing, paired with a fantastic offense that gives him plenty of run support (usually), I just don’t see Bauer falling so far. He’s still a great pitcher, just not a Top 5 one anymore.

So let’s not deal him for pennies on the dollar or act like he won’t help your teams moving forward. Yes, it’s a bumpy moment, but his stuff is still great and will help considerably through the year. Stick with him.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:

 

José Urquidy @ BAL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 84 pitches.

That’s three straight seven-inning starts from Urquidy as he earned a King Cole against the Orioles and it’s hard to ask for more, but I will. Urquidy had three of his four offerings working (and I mean working), but the hook hasn’t a part of the party. I just want the full four-pitch mix, you know? Obviously I’m not upset and his slider/changeup came in over two ticks harder which is a bit interesting (123 rpm increase on his changeup?!) and we should all feel pretty great rostering Urquidy moving forward.

Danny Duffy @ NYY (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 42 pitches.

We found out yesterday that Duffy was returning and had no idea where he was at pitch count-wise. Good to know he’s at 42 and will likely need about 2-3 starts to get back on track, but y’all know the real question, and the answer is AWWWW YEAAAH. Duffy still had his velocity (and more!) as he sat 94/95 mph. It could have been because he threw few pitches, it could be because his skillz pay mad billz. And stuff.

Dylan Cease @ PIT (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 99 pitches.

Phew. I’m so glad the slider returned. Oh, um, well, the thing is–You can’t be serious. He had a 14% CSW with 4/29 whiffs on sliders. Yikes. But hey! The four-seamer and changeup were great + he got strikes with curves and the slider was fouled off and found gloves in play. It wasn’t terrible, just not the slider dominance that elicits the confidence you want to start him against Minnesota, you know? I’m still starting him there, just with an aggressive inhale as I do. My teeth are now enraged at me for this and are furiously filling my suggestion box. Dear Nick, stop with the inhaling. It hurts. K thx – Signed, Imma Tooth. I’m going to get some sleep now.

Brandon Woodruff @ ARI (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 98 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. He’s a bit over 100 rpm down on his stuff, but it clearly doesn’t matter.

Caleb Smith vs MIL (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 101 pitches.

Ayyy it worked! Streaming Record: 47-34. Don’t call it a comeback. As for Smith, we’re still waiting for his slider and/or changeup to take the step forward and his fastball was…pretty dang mediocre here. I watched a decent amount of the outing and it was rough, y’all. I feel like he and I cheated here.

Germán Márquez @ SEA (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 98 pitches.

Atta boy, Márquez, you did exactly what you are supposed to do when you’re on the road and against Seattle. You should be in the clear starting Germán against the Pirates in Coors next, but it won’t be like this. It doesn’t get much better.

Kevin Gausman @ LAA (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 100 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. This is getting so stupid and y’all know I love getting stupid. Like pulling a Kevin and setting up traps in my own home that I clearly don’t have the money or resources for, let alone the full understanding of mechanical engineering and time to set everything up properly + I don’t even stop the dang criminals in end despite all the destruction that someone is going to have to clean up. But anyway, Gausman is dope and makes us feel dope.

Shohei Ohtani vs SF (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 105 pitches.

Look at that, Ohtani earned himself a Gallows Pole and even tossed over 100 pitches as he’s near 60 innings for the season. The man is on fire right now and we all need to appreciate how incredible he is. When we say someone is good, it’s another level when they are S.O. good.

Rich Hill vs BOS (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 97 pitches.

We wondered if this would be beneficial or not and in the end, the answer is ¯ \_(ツ)_/¯. That WHIP hurts, you know, but fine, the win, low ERA, and five strikeouts should outweigh it. Yay Hill. He manages to avoid a ton of terrible starts for the Rays and faces the Nats + Cleveland next. I’m all for it.

Robbie Ray @ MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 96 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. His slider wasn’t as dominant as we’ve seen as the hook + changeup took a backseat again, but it’s the Marlins and Ray did plenty to earn this. Enjoy SEA + TBR + @TBR to come.

Joe Musgrove vs LAD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 101 pitches.

Fantastic outing from Musgrove as he moves toward the direction of an AGA label. It’s been a weird series of starts lately, as he had 17 strikeouts but six ER across two starts, then rebound for seven shutout frames…and two strikeouts last time. This is a bit more balanced, but we want one of those truly dominant games, you know? Eh, whatever, this was the Dodgers and you have to be thrilled about it.

Matt Manning vs STL (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 80 pitches.

Did we expect dominance? No! Did we see Manning pitch last week and ask ourselves why we cared so much for a Toby? Yes! It’s wild to see just two curveballs thrown (that was the pitch I heard from Manning for ages) as he earned just one strikeout (HAISTFMFWT?!and served us a Philly. Don’t expect much more, honestly.

Michael King vs KC (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 72 pitches.

This is as middling of an outing you’ll see and it is oh-so fitting, like a cat inside a cardboard box.

Tylor Megill vs ATL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 92 pitches.

I watched this one and while Megill tossed 95+ mph constantly, I don’t love his command and his secondary stuff, while at times serviceable, sure doesn’t instill fun. And let me tell you, when it comes to rookie pitchers, you’re looking for fun. Pizzaz. Electricity. In general, rookie pitchers will have more stumbles along the way and you need those upside starts to even it out. I don’t see many of those ceiling outings to make this worth your attention.

Mike Foltynewicz vs OAK (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 88 pitches.

Is it weird that this may be the most surprising line of the night? Folty was actually productive! Sadly, it’s ~93 mph on his heaters still without an overwhelming secondary offering (though 39% CSW on his slider [three whiffs] is something!) and it’s not wise to consider this the start of a legit rebound.

James Kaprielian @ TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 82 pitches.

Is it the greatest performance ever? Ha, no. Was it worth the start and your confidence to do it all over again when Kap pitches against the Rangers a second time next week? Nope. Wait, JK. Absolutely.

Justus Sheffield vs COL (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 87 pitches.

Sigh. Even when sent a full bowl of Rockie Road, Sheff tosses it to the side like he’s incredibly rude or something. WHAT DO YOU WANT. Not this garbage. IT’S EVERYONE’S FAVORITE. Not mine. Ah yes, you’d have rather have pitched against the Seattle Supersonics, I understand. On the real, his slider did earn more whiffs today — 7/25 — so that’s cool. We need more than that, but hey, maybe he can build from it.

John Gant @ DET (L) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 70 pitches.

While I don’t want any pitcher to perform poorly, there is a level of comfort seeing Gant’s regression swing so far that he can’t handle the Tigers. And all was right in the world. I mentioned it on Twitter, but today truly was one of those days, where every pitcher essentially performed exactly as one would expect. Weird how that can actually happen once in a while.

Trevor Rogers vs TOR (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 83 pitches.

Yes, that includes you Rogers, who didn’t perform quite at ace level, but it was the Jays! We expected some hiccup here and there were still six strikeouts to salvage. Don’t worry, be happy.

Vince Velasquez vs WSH (ND) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 86 pitches.

At least you got–checks notes–five strikeouts. Yay. His changeup was better but this ain’t it. Velocity was down across the board, too.

Chase De Jong vs CWS (L) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 95 pitches.

The breakers weren’t bad, but not good enough to hide from—flicks on the flashlight under my faceThe TERRIBLE FASTBALL! Gasp.

Garrett Richards @ TB (L) – 1.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 54 pitches.

Sure, I didn’t expect Richards to perform well, but four walks and not a single strikeout?! HAISTFMFWT?! Seriously, that’s atrocious and absolute pain. Don’t you dare go near this.

Erick Fedde @ PHI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 74 pitches.

Remember when we had a moment on Monday looking at Fedde? And now you’re wondering what you can do with just one strikeout. HAISTFMFWT?! Just remember kids, Don’t Trust The Feddes.

Kyle Wright @ NYM (L) – 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 55 pitches.

Oh Wright, you haven’t been right for right some time now. In fact, have you ever been the right Wright? Who is the Wright right?!

Thomas Eshelman vs HOU (L) – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 78 pitches.

Thomas the Tank engine indeed. :(. I really do feel for the guy as he sat 87/88 on heaters and took a pounding against the elite Houston lineup across four innings with just one strikeout (HAISTFMFWT?!). I feel your pain, Thomas.

 

Game of the Day 

 

Walker Buehler vs Chicago Cubs – Let’s hope the secondaries are there and propel him to double-digit strikeouts again.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 9:00 am – 11:00 am EST Monday through Friday.

Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former pitching coach and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

  • Avatar theKraken says:

    I think HOU deserves some credit for all of the arms that they have developed. I feel like people like to knock the big group of generic arms that they throw out there, but they really get a lot of great production out of guys that were afterthoughts. Then again, maybe they are just lucky.

  • Account / Login
    >