Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 2:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!
Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.
For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- Before the notes and rankings, an injury table outlines where players would be relatively ranked if they were fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
- If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
- Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
- Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. The Cherry Bomb players are likely going to underperform those labeled as a Toby across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling vs. floor in many cases. Pick the one that you need most in your situation, of course.
- I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots. Injuries are so strange (especially in spring training) and instead of shoving them at random moments on The List, I’ve elected to throw all of them into one table here for you, the wise fantasy manager, to determine if it’s worthwhile to take the injury discount and when.
(OFS) = Out For Season. They usually went under TJS or a similar procedure.
I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.
Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!
One last point about that – pitchers often need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.
I added something new to The List last season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me, and this rank will likely conflict with our weekly SP To Stash article from Rudy Ropp, though we will be conferring each week.. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.
They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers as spec adds at the very least. Some guys aren’t here and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.
Colors: Green = Worthy of a stash.
Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 75,000+ word Top 400 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.
Let’s get to it.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
- These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.
- Pitchers in the Top 40 (or so) move less drastically than those from 40-100. Yes, I’m reiterating the last bullet point because I get comments about it each week. The back-half of the List has a ton of movement constantly due to the nature of 12-team leagues. It’s in your best interest to get value now vs. holding onto a fringe arm as a stash for 10 days while you sit them against a tough offense. Yes, this means you’ll see dramatic +15/-20 moves a lot. It’s how it works.
- As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
- Added: Justin Steele (23), Walker Buehler (24), Nick Pivetta (31), Bryan Woo (32), Christian Scott (52)
- Removed: Grayson Rodriguez (18), Nathan Eovaldi (32), Joe Musgrove (34), Spencer Turnbull (59)
- Net Change Inside Top 60: (-1)
- Please understand how this affects movement across The List.
Tier 1 – The Remaining Aces
You know they are aces.
1. Corbin Burnes – Yep, still dope.
2. Zack Wheeler – Another great outing today against the Giants (the only Monday game I took into consideration). He’s dope and makes us feel dope.
3. Tyler Glasnow – What is health these days?
4. Luis Castillo – Post-April Castillo is blossoming. For real though, his heater and slider are looking great.
5. Cole Ragans – PEW PEW PEW. The fact that his final two batters added two extra walks is all kinds of uggggh.
6. Tarik Skubal – Skubal is killing it and back at 97 mph, but his four-seamer is still struggling to earn whiffs. Kinda weird…?
7. Pablo López – We’re nearly back to his peak. And that’s cool.
8. Freddy Peralta – Peralta’s command has been off across his last three starts, though his general accuracy was far better last time out where at least he showed proper intent with the heater. He’ll be fine.
9. George Kirby – Kirby, can ya please figure out one of your secondaries to earn whiffs? You can’t just do it with the heater.
10. Kevin Gausman – The splitter went double-digit whiffs again. It’s what you want.
Tier 2 – AGA With Something To Prove
They have the AGA tag, though they all have a quirk that could mean they lose it by June.
11. Max Fried – A pair of two-run shots were the only blemishes against the Dodgers. The changeup is coming back, too.
12. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – THROW HIGHER WITH THE HEATER. But he’s dominating with the way he’s pitching now. I DON’T CARE.
13. Logan Webb – A three-run blast to Harper messed up his Sunday night, but the sweeper did show up for whiffs this time around. I like Gaus, Fried, and Yamamoto’s gains more than Webb right now, so don’t overreact to the negative number.
14. Shota Imanaga – His name is IM AN AGA. I’d feel even better about him if he had a third reliable pitch he could demand for strikes.
15. Jared Jones – The dude is too good. Innings management be damned. Great to see his fastball velo and command return over the weekend.
16. Zac Gallen – Gallen left his last start with hamstring tightness and wasn’t looking sharp across his arsenal. Not great, Bob. I hope he can still make his next outing.
17. Aaron Nola – It looks like a typical Nola season and honestly, that’s all gravy to me. Don’t overthink him.
18. Joe Ryan – Ryan has been a little unfortunate as of late and his four-seamer is still elite. I imagine a touch of polish on his secondaries equates to a massive run in the second half.
19. Logan Gilbert – The results have been spectacular due to a new cutter that ties the whole room together. I still wish his heater could be better commanded, but that cutter allows him to keep batters off the fastball and earn confident strikes over the plate, while saving his slider as a whiff pitch.
20. Chris Sale – He deserves the AGA label by piling up the Wins and looking like the Sale we want him to be. There is another gear to hit if he can find his old changeup, but I doubt he’ll get there. It’s okay, we’ll settle for a strong fastball/slider combo.
Tier 3 – We Expect Success Every Night
They don’t have the AGA tag and could earn it before June.
21. Kyle Bradish – Let’s give him another start of two before assigning the AGA label again. The biggest area of improvement? Nailing down the curveball.
22. Sonny Gray – Sonny has been nothing but brilliant since returning from the IL. He’s awfully close to his AGA tag as well.
23. Justin Steele – He’s back from the IL and while his first start may be limited, I’m more of a believer in Steele’s ability to change the shapes of his four-seamer and slider. Steele is a legit command pitcher.
24. Walker Buehler – I’m SO excited to watch Buehler return to the majors, but what are we going to get? He was a Top 10 pitcher back in the day…
25. Framber Valdez – Valdez’s slider that made me amped last week? Gone. He threw just a handful and they were putrid, sure, but hot dang, WHY. I think I’m just going to let it be, start him when he pitches, and move on.
26. Dylan Cease – I’ll continue to focus on the cutter as its development could raise Cease’s floor high enough to prevent the disaster starts. Until then, I don’t think he’ll get the AGA tag save for another brilliant run.
Tier 4 – Hard Rock Café
I don’t think they’ll get the AGA tag this year, but hot dang are they stable 6+ inning arms for all-around production. Paul Skenes would be near the bottom of this tier if called up today.
27. Bailey Ober – It wasn’t a fun one this week, but he’s still Ober.
28. Yusei Kikuchi – Kikuchi’s four-seamer, slider, and curve approach is here to stay. And it’s spectacular. He’s making a shocking run at AGA given his 2.72 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 27% strikeout rate thus far.
29. Ronel Blanco – Blanco didn’t have his best stuff last time out. Obviously not enough to change course and I dig the overall three-pitch mix.
30. Nick Pivetta – He’s back! Expect Pivetta to return a 25%+ strikeout rate with solid ratios once again.
31. Zach Eflin – He’s looking more and more like a Tier 5 arm. I hope he can get the full repertoire back in order, especially the curve/cutter pieces.
32. Bryan Woo – I debated this one plenty and I ultimately landed on labeling him as a Holly with more upside. His four-seamer is the flattest among all SPs and any growth with his slider and cutter from last year (which we haven’t seen yet!) would vault him up the ranks. Get pumped.
Tier 5 – So Dang Close To Greatness
I trust all these pitchers to produce this season while they also carry the ability to be more than an SP #3.
33. Michael King – King has solid command and a great start this week has him hold court. Without the strikeouts, it’s hard to push King further up the ladder.
34. Justin Verlander – Verlander is safe and still has potential to whip out a 25% strikeout rate. He could fall in the coming weeks if he doesn’t display an ability to rack up the Ks, though.
35. Nestor Cortes – Cortes has been going deeper into games than I expected. A lovely safe arm for any squad without the electricity of the top tiers.
36. Yu Darvish – I don’t know what to do with Darvish. His return from the IL was solid, if not lacking a whole lot depth as he mostly went fastball/slider. A 25%+ strikeout rate with some ratio volatility and a hefty number of Wins seems fair.
37. Kutter Crawford – I like Crawford and hate that he gets Atlanta this week. His three-pitch mix of fastballs, kutters, and sweepers get the job done, though watching him pitch gives me more anxiety than others. It’s completely subjective, but Crawford doesn’t overwhelm like others. It’s weird.
38. Ryan Pepiot – He took a comebacker to the shin and it’s unclear if he’s starting this week. He was also pitching poorly prior to the comebacker and his outlook is dampened all around.
39. Tanner Bibee – Bibee got trounced as he failed to take over the game with his changeups and sliders. We know what he’s capable of, though I’m expecting similar volatility often through the year with his poor four-seamer shape and inconsistent locations.
40. Tanner Houck – Houck’s slider steals the show, though his success is reliant on his sinker and splitter doing their part. If not, his slider’s heavy zone-presence gets ambushed.
Tier 6 – Celebrating The Holly Days
This has stability among arms who are all kinds of fun.
41. John Means – He had a stellar debut, featuring great pitch separation with his heaters, changeups, and sliders. Throw in a winning club, an improved home park, and a tendency to go deep into games, and Means becomes your much needed reinforcements.
42. Reynaldo López – López has done nothing but produce. He’s going six innings often with a high win chance, and his slider + curve have complemented his heater well. I don’t see the same ceiling as those in Tier 5 and above, but there’s no reason for him be on any wire at the moment.
43. Ranger Suárez – Do y’all really want me to raise him higher than this? I understand why – Suárez’s marks have been absurd and his entire repertoire is performing far better than ever before. We’ve seen runs like this before from Suárez, though, and I don’t expect it to last too long. Obviously we’re holding in the meantime.
44. José Berríos – WHAT. He’s been so good! I know. It’s also unsustainable + we saw his command take a step back in his last outing. I think the regression is about to hit.
45. Chris Bassitt – Bassitt is like Berríos, but going through his harder portion of the season. Stick with Bassitt – the sinker is still the king of called strikes and the rest of the kitchen sink will be there to support it.
Tier 7 – The Wobbly Guardrails
We’re at the edge of the Cliff where it’s heavily in your interest to grab guys who have the potential to lock themselves firmly inside the Top 40/50 SP for the season.
46. MacKenzie Gore – It hasn’t been the smoothest of seasons for Gore, but his horrific schedule gauntlet is coming to a close soon and his four-seamer is still elite. I’m a huge believer in Gore’s final four months of the year.
47. Garrett Crochet – It’s been two solid starts since his three disasters, but I found it strange that Crochet featured a changeup against the RHB Twins, then it disappeared in a similar situation the following outing. His slider went just 8/18 strikes as well and I’m not a huge believer in Crochet surviving many games with just four-seamer/cutter. He’s a bit in flux, still.
48. Jack Flaherty – The dude fanned 14 batters, how can you not want to rank him higher this week? It all comes down to his four-seamer performance, which jumped up to 95 mph last week. If he can prevent damage on the heater, his breakers will continue to flummox batters and pad the stat lines.
49. Bryce Miller – What do we do with Miller? His four-seamer is fantastic (even if it’s a little wild) but the supporting cast still has work to do. Will he figure this out over more time on the bump?
50. Hunter Greene – Eno Sarris and I talked about Greene during last week’s podcast episode of The Craft and his increased iVB this season merged with better hiLoc could spell a proper breakout ahead. If only he weren’t in Cin City and had a proper third pitch…
51. Nick Lodolo – I keep going back and forth between Greene and Lodolo, with the latter featuring the better breaker, but Greene’s four-seamer clearly stealing the spotlight. Don’t neg Lodolo too much for a tough day against the Orioles – the heavy majority of southpaws fail to escape that lineup with their head high.
52. Christian Scott – Scott is a clear must-add in your leagues, though the Rays may have made him look better than he is. I worry that he doesn’t a proper weapon against LHB, given his approach as a four-seamer/sweeper arm. The slider doesn’t act as a cutter or a strike pitch, and I’m curious how he develops in the new six-man rotation for the Mets.
53. Carlos Rodón – Rodón struggled against the Orioles (see Lodolo), but I appreciate his improved slider while he’s saving velocity in the tank throughout the game akin to his days in San Francisco. We may see more from Carlos.
Tier 8 – Thin Blankets
It’s a mini-tier of guys who don’t warm you like the soaring upside of Tier 7, but get the job done to go six full frames without devastation moreso than Tier 9.
54. Seth Lugo – He’s collected 17 strikeouts in his last two starts after earning 14 strikeouts across his first five. I’m not banking on a combined 50 called strikes across his last two starts to stick around, and after recording just eight whiffs last time out, I think Lugo settles in as a solid arm with the occasional strikeout explosion. That’s cool with me.
55. Jordan Montgomery – He’s The Bear and relies on his Neckbeard approach to get through games. It’s not sexy, but it’ll be productive throughout the season.
56. Marcus Stroman – Stroman hasn’t had a reliable secondary across his last two starts. It’ll return, don’t worry.
57. Aaron Civale – He’s been terrible in his last three games and I imagine y’all want him even lower than this. I don’t think Civale is cooked and he has a TIARA in the meantime. I’d tough it out.
58. Reese Olson – Olson’s slider and changeup are coming together, but there’s still a bit of the Shag Rug still lingering despite tossing over 100 innings last year. I think he’ll demand a higher rank once we see a solid replacement for his poor four-seamer vs. LHB.
59. Jordan Hicks – After flexing a legit splitter in his previous start, Hicks lost the pitch and any other secondary, showcasing his true floor. I think we’ll get a mix of the mediocre starts that are heavily reliant on outs from the sinker and starts where his sweeper or splitter dominant, making the end result worthwhile for the full ride.
60. Cristopher Sánchez – His changeup abandoned him last time out and the Phillies may have him pair with Turnbull to piggy-back starts. That sounds terrible. I. Know. His next start is a very important one.
61. Jameson Taillon – Taillon’s pitch separation is improving and I love the shifted approach with sinkers, cutters, and elevated four-seamers. I still have a slight worry about dealing with LHB (backdoor sweepers and cutters may not be enough), but he should be a stable arm that favors outs and efficiency over striking everyone out.
62. Clarke Schmidt – Schmidt’s cutter to LHB is improving – it’s the last element he needs to become a Holly. Well, that and dominating RHB with more sweepers to keep the strikeouts flowing.
63. Javier Assad – He’s a Vargas Rule and who am I to deny you. This isn’t going to last and yet, I said that a few weeks ago, too.
64. Casey Mize – I believe in Mize’s four-seamer long-term, while the slider should find its groove in the near future. It outlines a consistent six-inning arm with a potential for at least a strikeout per inning, especially if the splitter cooks, too.
Tier 9 – But This Time, I Promise!
We understand how each of these arms could be great, but good luck figuring out when these Cherry Bomb arms will pop off for a stud outing.
65. Taj Bradley – Bradley is set to make his debut this weekend and I have no idea what we’ll see. We’re past The Cliff and I’m favoring these upside arms over the mediocrity of the wire, so let’s go with the arm that has been so close to being a stud, hoping he’s shed his command issues of the past.
66. Andrew Abbott – Abbott is starting to find a rhythm with his fastballs and breakers, which came through against the Orioles over the weekend. Take note, it could be a groove similar to last summer when he first debuted in the majors.
67. Edward Cabrera – After a dominating season debut, Cabrera’s control hasn’t been the same. It’s a small sample, though, and with his improved slider, I can’t help but wonder if we’ll see a more consistent Cabrera this season.
68. Brady Singer – Singer is throwing more armside with his sinker this season, but is that enough to distance himself from his Cherry Bomb seasons of the past? I think it’s more favorable results than a true tweak toward a breakout, especially as he’s still two-pitch most of the time.
69. Brandon Pfaadt – Pfaadt fanned eleven and yet there isn’t a massive shift in his approach or ability. Still feels awfully Cherry Bomb, sadly.
70. Triston McKenzie – Despite throwing with a bum elbow, McKenzie not only had 91/92 mph velocity (not 90), but also found his curveball of old. It could easily have just been a Dennis, though, and I’m still cautious rostering McKenzie.
Tier 10 – Is This An Ace?
This is the butterfly meme where we’re staring out our teams long enough, hoping one of them can save us from our IL-riddled squads. These are the young arms we hope will blossom into a legit fantasy starter across the summer.
71. Luis Gil – Gil took a step forward near the end of April and has featured more strikes as of late. The Astros will be a major test this week and if he comes through, you can bet he’ll be a heavily added arm shortly after.
72. Spencer Arrighetti – With a flat four-seamer and elite extension, Arrighetti’s four-seamer sets the table for an array of secondaries…who haven’t come down for dinner. It’s in there and I think he can put it together if given more time on the bump in Houston.
73. Gavin Stone – Stone just had a great outing, flexing the changeup that made scouts swoon. However, he’s not made to go deep into games for the Dodgers and his fastball/slider are not the saviors Stone needs when the changeup isn’t there. He’s a solid play against the Marlins this week, and I hope he showcases something new.
74. Jack Leiter – He’s stepping into the rotation for Eovaldi and he should be on your radar with a date against the Athletics this week. Sure, his debut against the Tigers went poorly, but his four-seamer is destined to dominate upstairs, while his slider, change, and curve each show promise.
75. José Soriano – It comes down to his command. The curve is a strong #2, but will he earn enough sinker strikes to get outs and get through six frames? Can he blow his upper 90s mph four-seamer past bats or will it be an easy take out of the zone?
76. Tobias Myers – He was terrible in his third MLB start and I’m curious what comes next. Does Myers get back on the horse and live around the edges, rooted in an elite iVB four-seamer? Or does he flounder and return to the minors before the end of May?
77. Mason Black – Black made his MLB debut today, May 6th, and unsurprisingly stumbled against the Phillies. However, he’ll get an extended look and get another shot against the Reds. He’ll need to command better than today (so much down the pipe), but a decently shaped four-seamer with a big sweeper and lively sinker make for an interesting Toby who could be a consistent producer for the Giants.
Tier 11 – The Mediocre Cheese AKA The Queso-so
Hey, strikeouts are hard to find and these guys can brings Ks, but are very so-so.
78. Andrew Heaney – Hey, the guy has gone BSB for three straight starts and has a pair of good matchups this week. Consider it.
79. Griffin Canning – Canning has impressed me by locating his four-seamers up and out of the zone, while hovering the edges with his secondaries. I still think his mistakes are easier to hit than others, making him a coin flip each day.
80. Reid Detmers – The command is just not there. I wish I could buy into Detmers wielding all four pitches properly, but we haven’t seen it for a bit.
81. Mitch Keller – He’s your Cherry Bomb poster boy and I’ve seen nothing to suggest otherwise.
82. Kyle Harrison – It’s a four-seamer that isn’t missing a ton of bats, “supported” by a change and curve that don’t do a whole lot. This ain’t it.
Tier 12 – Fine, You Need Some Streams & Other Randos
Sneaky starters who could find you some wins or quality starts but shouldn’t be held with adoration in your 12-teamers.
83. Ben Lively – He’s had a lovely run and gets the White Sox next. Sure, his fastballs were not nearly as well spotted last time out, but he still came through, right? It’s the CrySox.
84. Logan Allen – With the Tigers + CrySox ahead, Allen’s BSB approach could pay off in a big way, especially if the slider and changeup actually land low in the zone.
85. Zack Littell – I’m not a major Littell fan, but he’s been a Toby more-or-less this season. Is that enough to start him against the Yankees and continue to hold him on your squads?
86. Jon Gray – He has a great slider and nothing else, breaking the Huascar Rule. Up to you if you want to chase the strikeouts and potential Wins with the Rangers’ firepower at his back.
87. Tyler Anderson – He’s a textbook Toby with @PIT and KCR up next. Sure, that works.
88. Martín Pérez – Pérez doesn’t do a whole to excite you, but hey, it’s the Angels. That should be fine.
89. Charlie Morton – You’re here for the Win chance. You do you.
90. José Buttó – Buttó does enough to take down the Cardinals.
91. Sean Manaea – It’s two starts for Manaea this week, just ignore the second one against Atlanta.
92. Dean Kremer – Kremer has had a trio of beneficial outings in a row, though I’m skeptical he can continue to earn whiffs with both his four-seamer and cutter. The Sneks aren’t the most appealing of starts, but there’s always a decent Win chance pitching for the O’s.
93. Erick Fedde – After 20 strikeouts in two games, Fedde let us down last time out. Now getting the Guardians, I’m imagining his command won’t be nearly as wonky, but temper your expectations.
94. Patrick Sandoval – The Irish Panda had his best start of the season and now gets @PIT and KCR, like Tyler. Maybe that works out with his changeup and slider actually landing down once again.
95. Kyle Gibson – I hate trying to guess when Gibson will succeed, but he has had his sweeper working more than usual as of late.
96. Paul Blackburn – Blackburn is only worthwhile against poor lineups. He gets the Nationals this week. Sweet.
97. Cole Irvin – Irvin was a far better arm in his last outing, boasting a lovely curveball out of nowhere. That may be worth it against the Diamondbacks this week.
98. Hayden Wesneski – We saw Wesneski rip some fantastic sweepers, but ultimately, that’s all he brings to the table. Be careful running with this against the Padres.
99. Taijuan Walker – You’re hoping for a PQS and a Win against the Marlins given Walker’s low 90 mph velocity these days.
100. Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco was like Walker, but suddenly jumped to 93 mph in his last outing + 17% SwStr across his secondaries. With the White Sox ahead, here’s to hoping he’s still standing atop that velocity plateau.
Honorable Mentions
You’re getting little blurbs on everyone else with a rotation spot this week. This is in alphabetical team order, not rank. If a pitcher has a rotation spot and is not listed here, it’s an error on my part after crafting The List and forgetting to add them here. Feel free to let me know if someone isn’t listed here and I’ll add them – it’s usually a fringe guy I removed and lapsed when ensuring they had a blurb!
Ryne Nelson (ARI) – I dig his heater, I hate that he has the Dodgers this week. Let’s just wait for a good matchup and a display of his cutter working well.
Slade Cecconi (ARI) – This ain’t it. Slade is far too raw to consider.
Bryce Elder (ATL) – It’s a Win chance. Take that as you want.
Brayan Bello (BOS) – It’s not confirmed at the time of publication if Bello returns this week or next. He’d be in the 40s or so.
Ben Brown (CHC) – Displaced with Steele returning and Wesneski getting a leash in the rotation. Brown needs to add a cutter or a different #3 pitch to become a notable fantasy arm.
Chris Flexen (CHW) – This ain’t the Toby you want as the White Sox are not going to Win many games this year. Meanwhile, Flexen will be climbing the mountain as he does everything possible to flirt with a 20% strikeout rate.
Michael Soroka (CHW) – He could very well turn into a Toby as the year progresses. Right now, he doesn’t have the command to justify the low Win gamble.
Mike Clevinger (CHW) – You can do what you want. I personally don’t want anything to do with him and it’s not like his skills make that decision hard to make.
Frankie Montas (CIN) – He’s awfully pedestrian. You can do better.
Graham Ashcraft (CIN) – I don’t trust his command enough.
Cal Quantrill (COL) – COL story, bro.
Dakota Hudson (COL) – COL story, bro.
Austin Gomber (COL) – COL story, bro.
Peter Lambert (COL) – COL story, bro.
Ryan Feltner (COL) –COL story, bro.
Kenta Maeda (DET) – He’s a Cherry Bomb who simply hasn’t been sweet enough to justify the low floor.
Cristian Javier (HOU) – It’s not confirmed at the time of publication if Javier returns this week or next. He’d be in the 40s or so.
Hunter Brown (HOU) – It’s a journey. Brown hasn’t figured out a stable approach and I wonder how long Brown is going to last in the Astros rotation.
Alec Marsh (KCR) – He may get a start this week or possibly spend another start rehabbing. Not the worst stream against the Angels if he returns later this week.
Michael Wacha (KCR) – I don’t expect Wacha to be off The List for long. His command should return + the changeup is still performing well. I don’t think he’s worth the spot over a streamer for now.
James Paxton (LAD) – We’re near the end of the rope for Paxton, with 93 mph velocity and worse command than at the start of the year.
Braxton Garrett (MIA) – He’s not confirmed to return yet. It’s annoying. He’d be around the 60s/70s or so.
Jesús Luzardo (MIA) – He’s not confirmed to return yet. It’s annoying. He’d be around the 30s/40s or so.
Roddery Muñoz (MIA) – I think there’s some intriguing stuff here, but it’s the Dodgers and the Shag Rug is very much present.
Sixto Sánchez (MIA) – He’s not stretched out, nor looking anything like his old self.
Trevor Rogers (MIA) – Even with two great matchups, Rogers failed to come through. It’s weird, I actually think his command is good, but he’s still getting crushed. So it goes.
Bryse Wilson (MIL) – The Brewers are still rolling with Wilson. That doesn’t mean you have to, too.
Colin Rea (MIL) – He’s been surprisingly decent with just one poor start this year. However, it’s a limited ceiling and with just a single start this week, Rea doesn’t push the needle enough.
Joe Ross (MIL) – There is some desperate streamer value in here with his sinker/slider approach.
Robert Gasser (MIL) – He could make his debut later this week and there are worse spec adds to make. He’s 93/94 mph from the left side and a good sweeper. I wonder if he needs another strong weapon for RHB.
Chris Paddack (MIN) – The CrySox gave him a moment of bliss and now we move on.
Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) – He’s nearly Amish with his lack of electricity.
Jose Quintana (NYM) – He just allowed 8 ER against the Rays. It’s possible he rebounds, but he’s on the wire this week.
Luis Severino (NYM) – The Dodgers are up next and he’s suddenly throwing 30% sweepers. Yes, that’s weird. No, it’s not good.
Alex Wood (OAK) – This isn’t the life you want for your teams.
Hogan Harris (OAK) – With Boyle out, we might see some Harris, possibly with an opener. He’s a Toby at best from the left side without much velocity.
JP Sears (OAK) – He’s too volatile, even if the sweeper is adding more reliability over the plate.
Joey Estes (OAK) – He may take Boyle’s place in the rotation, and he carried a near 16% SwStr on his heater last season. However, the shape isn’t great and requires pristine precision to get the same results. I wouldn’t bother.
Osvaldo Bido (OAK) – He’s expected up for the double-header and you should pay no attention.
Ross Stripling (OAK) – Stripling doesn’t have enough upside.
Bailey Falter (PIT) – It was a week of great matchups and Falter wasn’t able to come through. Why chase it?
Quinn Priester (PIT) – He’s holding onto dear life as Skenes keeps banging on the door. Sliders and curves were great last time out, but it feels far too precarious.
Matt Waldron (SDP) – There was some consideration here as the SP #5 for the Padres, but it’s possible he pairs with Jhony Brito + his stuff speaks to a potential Toby and not much else.
Randy Vasquez (SDP) – He doesn’t go long into games and it’s not exciting enough.
Keaton Winn (SFG) – YOOOOO, I know you’re upset. I get it. It was a rainy day! He gets Coors + The Dodgers next. The back third of The List is super schedule dependent and a guy like Winn is not worth a two-week stash. Just how it is.
Lance Lynn (STL) – He just doesn’t do enough anymore.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) – Pitch count is low and the command is questionable at best.
Miles Mikolas (STL) – There’s so little to chase here. You can do better.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) – He’s subbing in for the hurt Bryan Woo, sporting a sinker/slider/change approach. It can work, though Hancock doesn’t look fully warm for the season yet. I’d take this slow and consider him as a potential Toby.
Tyler Alexander (TBR) – If the Rays could actually score runs, maybe T-Lex can vulture some Wins for you.
Dane Dunning (TEX) – Welp, the ten strikeout game was a fun little exception. You don’t need to hold here.
Michael Lorenzen (TEX) – He’s a Toby, nothing more.
Owen White (TEX) – He’ll be up for the double-header. Move on.
Alek Manoah (TOR) – Manoah returned and it was rough. Wait this one out.
Jake Irvin (WSN) – He’s throwing a little harder and it’s still not a good fastball. His secondaries don’t do a whole lot either.
Mitchell Parker (WSN) – Womp womp. Parker isn’t flexing enough upside to start him against the Orioles, nor acting like a southpaw worthy of a stash. His fastball is too mid, sadly.
Patrick Corbin (WSN) – There’s a new cutter for both RHB and LHB that may actually make a difference this season. Sleeper for NL-Only..? Crazy, I know.
Trevor Williams (WSN) – #NeverTrevor.
SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES
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| Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corbin BurnesT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 3 | Tyler Glasnow | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | - |
| 4 | Luis Castillo | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 5 | Cole Ragans | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 6 | Tarik Skubal | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 7 | Pablo López | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 8 | Freddy Peralta | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -4 |
| 9 | George Kirby | Aces Gonna Ace Ratio Focused | - |
| 10 | Kevin Gausman | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +2 |
| 11 | Max FriedT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +2 |
| 12 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | +3 |
| 13 | Logan Webb | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | -3 |
| 14 | Shota Imanaga | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 15 | Jared Jones | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 16 | Zac Gallen | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | -5 |
| 17 | Aaron Nola | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | -3 |
| 18 | Joe Ryan | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 19 | Logan Gilbert | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 20 | Chris Sale | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +5 |
| 21 | Kyle BradishT3 | Ace Potential Wins Bonus Injury Risk | - |
| 22 | Sonny Gray | Ace Potential Ratio Focused Injury Risk | +1 |
| 23 | Justin Steele | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +UR |
| 24 | Walker Buehler | Ace Potential Wins Bonus | +UR |
| 25 | Framber Valdez | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -3 |
| 26 | Dylan Cease | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | - |
| 27 | Bailey OberT4 | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +1 |
| 28 | Yusei Kikuchi | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 29 | Ronel Blanco | Ace Potential Team Context Effect | - |
| 30 | Nick Pivetta | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +UR |
| 31 | Zach Eflin | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -7 |
| 32 | Bryan Woo | Ace Potential Injury Risk | +UR |
| 33 | Michael KingT5 | Holly Quality Starts | - |
| 34 | Justin Verlander | Holly Quality Starts | -3 |
| 35 | Nestor Cortes | Holly Wins Bonus | +3 |
| 36 | Yu Darvish | Holly Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 37 | Kutter Crawford | Holly Strikeout Upside | +6 |
| 38 | Ryan Pepiot | Holly Team Context Effect | -8 |
| 39 | Tanner Bibee | Holly Strikeout Upside | -12 |
| 40 | Tanner Houck | Holly Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 41 | John MeansT6 | Holly Wins Bonus | +20 |
| 42 | Reynaldo López | Holly Team Context Effect | - |
| 43 | Ranger Suárez | Holly Wins Bonus | +7 |
| 44 | José Berríos | Holly Quality Starts | -9 |
| 45 | Chris Bassitt | Holly Quality Starts | -8 |
| 46 | MacKenzie GoreT7 | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 47 | Garrett Crochet | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 48 | Jack Flaherty | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | +5 |
| 49 | Bryce Miller | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -9 |
| 50 | Hunter Greene | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +5 |
| 51 | Nick Lodolo | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +6 |
| 52 | Christian Scott | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 53 | Carlos Rodón | Cherry Bomb Team Context Effect Injury Risk | +1 |
| 54 | Seth LugoT8 | Toby Quality Starts | +4 |
| 55 | Jordan Montgomery | Toby Quality Starts | -8 |
| 56 | Marcus Stroman | Toby Quality Starts | -8 |
| 57 | Aaron Civale | Toby Team Context Effect | -18 |
| 58 | Reese Olson | Toby Quality Starts | -6 |
| 59 | Jordan Hicks | Toby Strikeout Upside | -10 |
| 60 | Cristopher Sánchez | Toby Quality Starts | -14 |
| 61 | Jameson Taillon | Toby Wins Bonus | +11 |
| 62 | Clarke Schmidt | Toby Wins Bonus | - |
| 63 | Javier Assad | Toby Ratio Focused | +6 |
| 64 | Casey Mize | Quality Starts | -13 |
| 65 | Taj BradleyT9 | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 66 | Andrew Abbott | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 67 | Edward Cabrera | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -11 |
| 68 | Brady Singer | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | +15 |
| 69 | Brandon Pfaadt | Cherry Bomb Team Context Effect | -9 |
| 70 | Triston McKenzie | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +15 |
| 71 | Gavin StoneT10 | Spice Girl Team Context Effect | +10 |
| 72 | Luis Gil | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | -8 |
| 73 | Spencer Arrighetti | Spice Girl Team Context Effect | +21 |
| 74 | Jack Leiter | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 75 | José Soriano | Spice Girl | +5 |
| 76 | Tobias Myers | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 77 | Mason Black | Spice Girl Rotation Spot Bonus | +UR |
| 78 | Andrew HeaneyT11 | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +14 |
| 79 | Griffin Canning | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 80 | Reid Detmers | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -15 |
| 81 | Mitch Keller | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 82 | Kyle Harrison | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 83 | Ben LivelyT12 | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | -13 |
| 84 | Logan Allen | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 85 | Zack Littell | Streaming Option Quality Starts | -11 |
| 86 | Jon Gray | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 87 | Tyler Anderson | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 88 | Martín Pérez | Streaming Option Quality Starts | -20 |
| 89 | Charlie Morton | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | -3 |
| 90 | José Buttó | Streaming Option Ratio Focused | -2 |
| 91 | Sean Manaea | Streaming Option Quality Starts | -1 |
| 92 | Dean Kremer | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | +UR |
| 93 | Erick Fedde | Streaming Option Quality Starts | -27 |
| 94 | Patrick Sandoval | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 95 | Kyle Gibson | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
| 96 | Paul Blackburn | Streaming Option Quality Starts | -1 |
| 97 | Cole Irvin | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | +UR |
| 98 | Hayden Wesneski | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 99 | Taijuan Walker | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | +UR |
| 100 | Carlos Carrasco | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +UR |
Labels Legend
I’ve updated the tags for 2024, now allowing myself to tag a player in one three groups.
Overall Label
Aces Gonna Ace
Ace Potential
Holly
Toby
Cherry Bomb
Spice Girl
Vargas Rule
Streaming Option
Bonus Stat
QS Bonus
Wins Bonus
Strikeouts Bonus
Ratios Bonus
Rotation Spot Bonus
Team Context Effect
Special Tag
Stash Option
Injury Risk
Playing Time Question
A quick legend for those unfamiliar with our odd terms at Pitcher List:
Holly = Solid ratios, constant 6 IP & a 20-25% strikeout rate
Toby = Borderline arm for your 12-teamers who has a 20% or lower strikeout rate. They barely do enough.
Cherry Bomb = A volatile starting pitcher. Usually with strikeout upside and low ratio floor.
Spice Girl = Young arms who have massive ceilings or could be off your team in a few weeks.
Vargas Rule = A pitcher we’re picking up now given he’s on a roll, but we drop once he stumbles again.
Team Context Effect = Either ranked higher or lower due to team context (Coors, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta, Cincy, etc.)
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)
Dead wrong on Assad as per usual
Lodolo has replaced Eovaldi as a guy Nick inexplicably underappreciates and nitpicks to the extreme.
Thank you so much for Jared Jones, I hope he survives the list curse
Where’s Ryan Weathers? Not even honorable mention for him? Rough.
Gavin Stone has gone into the seventh-inning three out of his last five starts. Yet somehow Nick says he’s not made to go deep in the games. 👌
100% .
How can he keep him out of the top 25 right now? 25.2% K-BB AFTER that bad outing… 33.3% CSW, 15.9% SwStr, 36.9% O-swg, 7% BB rate.
What’s an SP gotta do Nick?
(you’re awesome, btw, meant in fun)
Uncle Charlie getting raised next week, right??