Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.
Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!
Have questions? My “office hours” are on Playback 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.
For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:
- This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
- Before the notes and rankings, an injury table outlines where players would be relatively ranked if they were fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
- If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
- Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
- Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. The Cherry Bomb players are likely going to underperform those labeled as a Toby across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase ceiling vs. floor in many cases. Pick the one that you need most in your situation, of course.
- I’ve made a decision to limit labels to just one label per player, with few exceptions for a second. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
- The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.
Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots. Injuries are so strange (especially in spring training) and instead of shoving them at random moments on The List, I’ve elected to throw all of them into one table here for you, the wise fantasy manager, to determine if it’s worthwhile to take the injury discount and when.
I made a decision last year: I removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.
Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!
One last point about that – pitchers often need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.
I added something new to The List last season. It’s a small table of the prospects I’m personally excited about who would jump up The List quickly if they were confirmed in the rotation. Please don’t read too much into these, there are far better prospect analysts out there than me, and this rank will likely conflict with our weekly SP To Stash article from Rudy Ropp, though we will be conferring each week.. Still, I think this table will help you quickly stay on top of who should be on your radar.
They are ordered by my general preference/focus on those guys right now. If any of these are called up, they should be added to your 12-teamers as s[ec adds at the very least. Some guys aren’t here and that’s due to my own belief they aren’t as pressing as the ones below. I could be very wrong there.
Colors: Green = Worthy of a stash.
Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, as each week’s update will reflect the comments and findings from those daily articles. If you’re unfamiliar with some of the players listed, I highly recommend that you read my 75,000+ word Top 400 Starting Pitchers from February. Many things will have changed, but the root of my perception of these players is outlined there.
Let’s get to it.
Ranking Notes
- This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
- Seriously. Read the notes.
- I know there are going to be a ton of comments about I hate how much these rankings change each week and I’m going to get out ahead of them here.
- These rankings mostly change in the back half of The List as that’s your waiver wire. Those aren’t the players you hold onto throughout the year like your SPs 1-4, which means we’re going to be a bit more chaotic and roll with the waves more aggressively. If I see elements that suggest a pitcher could be a Top 40 arm, I’m going to move up a ton from the 80s to the 60s. Shazam, there we go.
- I barely moved pitchers inside the Top 40. There are a few exceptions (I think four arms in total?) and I mostly elected to be patient for another week or two after witnessing just one outing. But yes, I certainly feel like Nola, Musgrove, Ober, King, should be lower, while Miller, Peralta, Pivetta, Javier should be higher, etc.
Tier 1 – The Remaining Aces
1. Corbin Burnes – I thought about who the #1 should be and elected to open up the tier and not change anything.
2. Zack Wheeler – That lower velocity is a touch concerning, but it’s early and that’s happened before.
3. Pablo López – Wasn’t the best command last time and he still made it work.
4. Luis Castillo – He’s starting slow, he often does.
5. George Kirby – Yes, it was a terrible start. No, that doesn’t mean Kirby is donezo.
6. Logan Webb – The slider disappeared last time, it should be better.
7. Cole Ragans – ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!
8. Tarik Skubal – The velocity dip at the end of his last game was scary, though I’m going to suggest it was a product of the cold weather.
9. Tyler Glasnow – He’s healthy now and that’s a lovely thing.
Tier 2 – AGA With Something To Prove
They have the AGA tag, though they all have a quirk that could mean they lose it by May.
10. Kevin Gausman – So that velocity on Saturday was scary. And yet, we haven’t heard anything else about it since. As much as I don’t want to move things around this early, we have to do take some precaution here.
11. Zac Gallen – He’s making it work at a lower velocity, though the Str-ICR is concerning – he’s not throwing a ton of strikes and his ICR rates aren’t benefiting from it.
12. Max Fried – With Fried, it’s been a horrible start to the year with a 11.45 ERA in his first two starts. Umm, that was his first three starts of 2021. Oh right, sorry. 5.72 ERA in two starts. That was 2022’s first two starts. Okay, you get the point. This happens to Fried and without any word of injury, I’m going to brush this off like we have every season thus far.
13. Freddy Peralta – Peralta gets a bump up for being the best version of himself I’ve ever seen. That four-seamer is so dang good right now.
14. Aaron Nola – He’s actually throwing high four-seamers now and that’s pretty dang cool. But the results have been weird. Yeah yeah yeah, that’ll come.
15. Bobby Miller – One start + an inning was incredible. Then the second frame happened. Don’t freak out over one inning, even if he wasn’t at his best in the first.
16. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – He showed a much flatter fastball in his second outing…and didn’t throw it upstairs. WHY DON’T YOU WANT TO BE BETTER.
17. Zach Eflin – Yeah, he’s doing Eflin things.
18. Grayson Rodriguez – The day when Rodriguez actually wields his arsenal like a proper ace is the day he jumps into the Top 10. Right away? Okay fine, when he wields it with a believable frequency.
19. Joe Ryan – His new slider is helping, the fastball is harder than last year, and he looks primed for 180-200 frames and a 25% strikeout rate.
Tier 3 – We Expect Success Every Night
They have to earn the AGA tag but are just a few starts away from it.
20. Joe Musgrove – Musgrove looked far better in his second start and everything looks back on track.
21. Chris Sale – So far so good. If he finds his changeup again, he can soar back to his former levels.
22. Shota Imanaga – Yes, his four-seamer is working incredibly well. However, his splitter had a stupid high whiff rate in his first outing before the rain-shortened effort against the Dodgers, and I wouldn’t expect that splitty to sustain a 30%+ SwStr rate. There will be some bad days here.
23. Logan Gilbert – He’s getting better, but is it enough? I need the guy to actually dominate with his four-seamer again. Those were the days.
24. Sonny Gray – Hey, you’re back! It’s a Still ILL in his first outing, but otherwise, we’re all for this. Gray is a great arm for any 12-teamer.
25. Yu Darvish – Darvish is leaning heavily into his full arsenal and refusing to give in during at-bats. This is the way.
Tier 4 – So Dang Close To Greatness
I trust all these pitchers to produce this season while they also carry the ability to be more than an SP #3. Bryan Woo would be in this tier.
26. Michael King – That seven walk game was weird. I can’t wait to completely remove that from his 2024 when we talk about King in the winter.
27. Dylan Cease – He’s looking like Cease and I can only hope he tweaks something while with the Padres. I hope it’s a cutter, it’ll likely be a curve or change or something blegh.
28. Jesús Luzardo – I’d be happy if he’s dealt, though I’m still concerned his four-seamer is too hittable and his secondaries catch too much of the zone.
29. Blake Snell – He’s finally making his season debut and I’m excited to see if Snell has anything close to the same feel for nibbling around the zone as he did last season. Likely not, but a man can dream.
30. Tanner Bibee – I’m still worried about his heater focus (it may work better spotted low instead of high?) though his slider and change are still strong whiff pitches.
31. Nick Pivetta – The whirlybird wasn’t nearly as good last start and he’s fortunate to have his worst stuff against a poor Athletics crew incapable of exploiting Pivetta’s struggles.
32. Jared Jones – The dude is obviously dope, the problem is IP expectations + Win potential. With Strider on the shelf, Jones looks like he’s taking the overpowering four-seamer/slider torch.
33. Bailey Ober – How can you move Ober after just one game? Yeah, I know. I wrestled with it and in the end, if you have a group of arms who are all in the same tier and one of them has any knock on them, wouldn’t you rank him below the others? I’m also annoyed he gets the Dodgers on Monday night as we likely won’t be able to discern a whole there to change our perspective. I still believe in him for the full season, obviously, and you should too.
34. Cristian Javier – I believe in Javier’s changeup being a difference maker this year. Once the heater kicks into gear, Javier could soar like 2022.
Tier 5 – Padded Trampolines
This has stability among arms who are all kinds of fun. Gavin Williams and Justin Verlander would be in this tier. Paul Skenes would be near the bottom of this tier if called up today.
35. Nathan Eovaldi – So far so good for Eovaldi, though I question if he has a bevy of strikeouts in the tank.
36. Chris Bassitt – You’re scared about Bassitt and you really shouldn’t be. If it’s still weird by May, okay, fine, then we talk. I haven’t seen anything awfully strange thus far.
37. Merrill Kelly – Yep, it’s Kelly. You know what you’re geting.
38. Aaron Civale – Civale gets a huge bump this week after having a fantastic week despite a tough early schedule. He’s doing the things we want (even with high sinkers!) and given the team context, he deserves the love. Just give us more than 130 IP, please.
39. Bryce Miller – He’ll get better. The command is already looking a bit more refined and with time, I can see Miller coming into rhythm against LHB and dominating with the four-seamer effortlessly.
40. Ryan Pepiot – He’s elevating heaters and it’s glorious. It’s good to pitch for the Rays.
41. Garrett Crochet – I still have an eyebrow raised here and there (will his sliders be consistent enough? Is his fastball too hittable?) but the introduction of the cutter is a huge step in the right direction. Why does it have to be the White Sox?
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Tier 6 – Scarlet Wool
I expect all of these arms to consistently go every five days and flirt with six frames, each with legit potential for a 25% strikeout rate, if not more in some cases. I may not love them, but you shouldn’t find a 12-teamer without them on a squad and for good reason.
42. Brayan Bello – Bello has the most reliability for six frames in this crew, though it does come at the cost of a lack of whiffs on his breaker.
43. Tanner Houck – He took the most advantage of Boston’s early schedule and yet I still have my doubts until he takes down a strong lineup.
44. Kutter Crawford – That fifth was weird for Crawford against the Angels and he shows the most potential of these four with the best stuff across his arsenal.
45. Garrett Whitlock – I absolutely love that his elite extension from 2022 has returned once again, but the whiffs haven’t come despite it. We may have more volatility here than we want.
Tier 7 – The Spork
This is a tier filled with electric arms that pack a punch like the tip of fork merged with the stable, reliability of a spoon. This is the worst Tier name I’ve had in ages.
46. Reid Detmers – That four-seamer has blossomed with a ton more iVB than previous seasons. It’s was sorely needed as Detmers’ four-seamer was shellacked both the previous two years, giving his slider little support. As long as that heater sticks around, Detmers only needs one secondary to come through on a given night to be productive.
47. José Berríos – The Great Undulator is back at it again. His command does look a little more refined this year, though.
48. Marcus Stroman – Stroman has yet to allow an ER as his new cutter focus is helping him keep batters at bay. So far so good and we love six innings from Stroman on a winning club.
49. Yusei Kikuchi – He added a new changeup in the off-season and threw it a bunch in his first start…before reverting to his fastball/slider/curve approach that worked so well in 2023. This is a good thing.
50. Casey Mize – There are many reasons to explain Mize’s poor season debut last week and let’s brush it off expecting far better next time out.
51. Reynaldo López – A good fastball + dependable slider for a winning team. Yes please.
52. Luis Gil – The ceiling is massive for Gil, though he’s clearly still ironing out the kinks to get his changeup and slider in the zone more often. It’ll come.
53. MacKenzie Gore – His four-seamer is as good as it’s ever been, sitting 97 mph and spotted upstairs. With the Athletics up next, this could be the week the hype explodes.
54. Reese Olson – Olson appears to be a solid mix of six-frame command and potential for more if his slider becomes the whiff pitch he had last year. There may be some hiccups along the way, though.
55. Ronel Blanco – Is he locked into the rotation now with Framber Valdez possibly on the shelf for a bit? I originally had him in mid-70s with a high chance of getting displaced when Verlander returned, but suddenly he becomes an arm that could stick in this rotation for a long time. I love his changeup and slider combo, though the four-seamer is a little suspect. Throw in a great team context and I’m in…if he sticks. Please stick, how could you remove Blanco?!
56. Cristopher Sánchez – I’m a little worried about his changeup not consistently working like last year, which we saw in his last outing. It should be on more than off, though, and if he finds his slider or cutter along the way, he can look like the efficient pitcher of 2023 once again.
57. Gavin Stone – I’m glad his slider was better in the rain-delay outing, which may have been lost among the four unearned runs. Is that enough to make him a solid play on the Dodgers or is he going to be too changeup reliant still? That’s a terrible sentence. Okay fine. Stone doesn’t have a stupid good arsenal like others here and I’m worried it’ll be kinda blegh by May.
Tier 8 – Plaid Shirts and a PBR
They could easily be anchors of your staff – both bad and good, with heavy HIPSTER risk. I personally don’t like having guys like these on my teams, but I recognize I was too harsh previously as I didn’t weigh the potential impact of it clicking high enough. Just be disciplined to move on if this doesn’t work early. Nick Lodolo would be in this tier.
58. Nick Lodolo – He’s back! Finally. Is he going to be a Cherry Bomb or actually able to command three pitches and rid trusting managers of their internal knots? We don’t want this anxiety-riddled life, Lodolo. SAVE US.
59. Hunter Greene – He still has the upside you know, but the curve and splitter aren’t doing a whole lot.
60. Hunter Brown – I’m going to believe that Brown will figure it out this year with the Astros, though looking at all the clear paths forward of those in the tier above, Brown felt like more of a “wishcasted” arm than someone definitely better to chase. I sincerely hope I overturn this next week.
61. Nestor Cortes – Does Cortes have another gear in him to look like his 2022-self or is this what he is? If he can escape the first frame without damage, he’d be dope. Good point, rando. Let’s hope that’s all this is.
62. Carlos Rodón – Velocity is improving and yet he’s still not getting that extra oomph to turn him into the ace of old. I can’t be the only one who feels like we’re not going to see it, right? I’m genuine when I say I don’t quite understand why his fastball gets hit so much harder these days vs. 2021 & 2022 and I’m down for y’all to tweet smart things my way.
63. Jordan Hicks – His sinker was hurled into the zone at 97 mph last start and it went his way. That pitch holds a sub 25% ICR so far, even at three ticks down from last year, though the sweeper and splitter were not strike pitches that Hicks needed. It has a Cherry Bomb feel to it and I’d be careful leaning too hard into Hicks. Can that sinker continue to be this successful at its lower velocity and “General Disarray” approach?
64. Triston McKenzie – I left this ranking as I watched him pitch on Monday 4/8 against the White Sox as his velocity jumped up a tick from 90.5 to 91.5 mph. And then down to 89/90. It’s scary y’all and it just doesn’t seem like this is going to fine.
Tier 9 – The Toby Types You’re Relying On
You’re looking at the waiver wire and need something decent for a few weeks. Look no further.
65. Michael Wacha – I honestly don’t know where to slot Wacha. I’ve structured the Tiers as best I can as groups to let all of you grab what you need in leagues and I can see many situations where Wacha >> all of Tier 8. He’s a Toby at the end of the day, though, with his changeup leading the way and hoping for the rest of his arsenal to find enough edges to skirt on by.
66. Jack Flaherty – Flaherty didn’t pitch nearly as bad as the line suggests against the Athletics (I know), with the damage mostly coming from poor heaters down the pipe. So if, you know, Flaherty doesn’t toss those meatballs, he would have been electric – his slider and curve were great and more like what we saw before. That’s a dumb argument, he could easily do that again! AND HE ALREADY HAS! Yeah, I know, don’t you see how many spots I moved Flaherty down? I’m not sure if Flaherty can avoid those mistake heaters consistently, nor do I know what happens if he doesn’t have a precise slider.
67. Brandon Pfaadt – The four-seamer is getting elevated more (yay!) but it isn’t as flat as it was (nay!) and it’s really just his sweeper that carries him through games. I’m skeptical y’all.
68. Seth Lugo – He’s as a Toby as it gets.
69. Zack Littell – It’s a great team context and Littell is making it work with his slider and four-seamer. A little strange, but we go with it for now.
70. James Paxton – It’s the Dodgers and we’ll roll with this until he’s removed from the rotation.
71. Tyler Wells – Wells hasn’t looked amazing, but the Win chance is too good to pass up + he’s absolutely capable of a fun run.
72. Charlie Morton – Hey Atlanta, I’d like another Win please, k thx.
Tier 10 – Future Me Is A Fan
These arms who are showing promise but haven’t gotten us totally convinced they are worth a roster spot quite yet.
73. Jordan Wicks – His four-seamer has legit become a weapon with more iVB out of nowhere. I wonder if he can hold onto it and go BSB with his changeup.
74. Ryne Nelson – The four-seamer and cutter combo was back in full force against Atlanta and if it weren’t for such a rough lineup, Nelson would have had a sparkling line. I sure hope that hard 90+ mph cutter returns.
75. Louie Varland – I think there’s a legit starter in here, it’ll just take some time. He gets the Dodgers next and let’s be patient until we get that start to pour coal into the hype train.
76. Brady Singer – Is the four-seamer actually the fix for Singer? His second start featured far less polish and makes me wonder if he’s still that Cherry Bomb we used to know.
77. Ryan Weathers – His four-seamer is still above average and now has both a changeup and sweeper to carry him to the finish line each day. I have less faith in Weathers than the rest of this tier, though he does have raw skills that can make him rank consistently higher than the following tier.
Tier 11 – Sure, This Could Work
These are Toby types with a touch of intrigue.
78. Ranger Suárez – The Phillies are giving Suárez all the lovely matchups with PIT + Rockie Road this week. Gotta love that.
79. DL Hall – In due time, I think Hall will be a solid play in 12-teamers. For now, he’s still figuring out how to get the most out of his heater without running out of gas, while his breakers + changeup need to find the zone more often.
80. Erick Fedde – He’s a Toby without the Wins you want.
81. Sean Manaea – Manaea survived @ Cincy and exploited the Tigers, each in different ways. The secondaries came alive on the road, while he pounded fastballs against Detroit. Neither is something I believe in long term, but maybe it’s enough to start regularly in 12-teamers.
Tier 12 – The Sweet & Sour Sauces
We don’t know what we’re going to get and when.
82. Trevor Rogers – There’s still upside to be had with Rogers, but it’s harder to trust right now than those ahead of him. If he holds 93 mph while earning whiffs on both changeup and slider, look out.
83. Mitch Keller – He hasn’t come through against mediocre lineups: The Marlins and Nationals. Seriously, y’all. That command is too rough.
84. Luis Severino – His four-seamer returned the whiffs last time out, due to location and not stuff. I’m worried his secondaries are lacking and that Severino is due for many bumps and bruises as he fails to reclaim his firepower of old.
85. Kyle Harrison – The fastball can work, but when are you going to see it work properly? Good lucky figuring it out.
86. Kenta Maeda – He’s 50/50 to have his slider and splitter working on a given day. At the end of the year, a 25% strikeout rate will somehow surface, though the ratios are sure to take punishment.
87. Bowden Francis – His heater shape is still solid and when he faces easier lineups, let’s hope Francis gets the confidence he needs in his secondaries to take full advantage of his rotation spot.
88. A.J. Puk – Two starts in and many are dropping Puk. You absolutely can (and in many cases should), though I expect him to improve with more time on the bump. There is also a shot the Marlins demote him back to the pen when both Cabrera and Braxton return, making him an arm to monitor, not hoard.
Tier 13 – Fine, You Need Some Streams & Other Randos
Sneaky starters who could find you some wins or quality starts but shouldn’t be held with adoration in your 12-teamers.
89. Frankie Montas – Sure, he’s fine. Don’t get too enamored given his home park and the volatility of his arsenal.
90. Logan Allen – Like many here, he’s a streaming option who has the leash to go six frames.
91. Clarke Schmidt – I hope Schmidt can work more on the cutter and get to a place where he dominates LHB with regularity. That would be so lovely.
92. J.P. France – France is a kitchen-sink arm starting regularly for a winning ball club. That works for those chasing Wins.
93. Cody Bradford – When does Michael Lorenzen displace him? Will he actually displace him? Fine, it’s supposed to be after one more start, but Bradford’s four-seamer is cooking and if he spins another gem, then why would the Rangers boot him?
94. Max Meyer – I know he’s a young and exciting name, but Meyer brings a good slider to the table…and not much else. He has Toby written all over him with a Shag Rug attached.
95. Dean Kremer – He pitches for the Orioles and may have a new splitter to help him do more than just cutter/four-seamer.
96. Martín Pérez – Look out ahead of you right now. You see that? Opportunity. Dang straight.
97. Paul Blackburn – Ayyyy it’s Paulie Punchouts with another great matchup as he faces the Nationals this week.
98. Graham Ashcraft – He has a two-step against the Brewers and White Sox that could work out for you. Maybe the cutter actually stays low for a bit. That would be lovely.
99. Spencer Turnbull – He’s cutter four-seamer IT’S A CUTTER DANGIT + sweeper that could work for at least one Win this week on the Phils.
100. José Soriano – Yoooooo, with Silseth hitting the IL, Soriano and his 95+ mph heater are joining the fun. Wait, so he’s a spice girl? Not really, but just someone to at least keep an eye on, even if his first start could be against the Red Sox in Fenway (that’s not one I’d go for).
Honorable Mentions
You’re getting little blurbs on everyone else with a rotation spot this week. This is in team order, not rank.
Cole Irvin (BAL) – Maybe his velocity jumps back up with proper command like it did in the spring.
Tyler Alexander (TBR) – He has the fifth spot with Bradley and Baz hurting, but does it matter?
Yariel Rodríguez (TOR) – If he takes over for an injured Gausman, I wouldn’t try him out as a spec add. I don’t think there’s enough in the tank and I’d wait until proven wrong in a start.
Michael Soroka (CHW) – He could very well turn into a Toby as the year progresses. Right now, he doesn’t have the command to justify the low Win gamble.
Chris Flexen (CHW) – This ain’t the Toby you want as the White Sox are not going to Win many games this year. Meanwhile, Flexen will be climbing the mountain as he does everything possible to flirt with a 20% strikeout rate.
Mike Clevinger (CHW) – I hate that Chicago just signed him and I personally don’t want to think of him at all. If you want to take a shot, you do you. I don’t.
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) – His velocity is down and even against a mediocre team, I wouldn’t to chance it.
Matt Manning (DET) – I still can’t believe the Tigers optioned Manning to Triple-A. He looks primed to be a six-inning arm with an improved heater and slider, even if he doesn’t have the upper ceiling of others. If you’ve drafted him, you can let him go back to the wire for now.
Alec Marsh (KCR) – He earned the fifth spot and if you’re still thinking about that 11 strikeout game from last year, you’ll be lucky to get those in his first two outings combined.
Chris Paddack (MIN) – Nearly put him on The List as he located heaters upstairs well, while tossing tempting split-changes (even if they returned a sub 50% strike rate). A date with the Dodgers makes him not worth your time for now.
Blair Henley (HOU) – I know very little about this guy as he’s getting called up for Monday’s start to replace Framber Valdez. Check out tonight’s SP Roundup to see how I feel about the fella.
Griffin Canning (LAA) – Velocity is down two ticks and he’s not missing enough bats.
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) – Ditto, but slider and changeup instead.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) – He’s a desperate streamer.
Joe Boyle (OAK) – His stuff is so good. His command is so bad. Don’t fall for guys who can’t locate (this is different than Snell, who misses with a purpose. Big difference than Boyle who literally aims for the middle of the plate with every pitch).
Ross Stripling (OAK) – Stripling doesn’t have enough upside.
Alex Wood (OAK) – Once we get proper data, I wonder if we’ll see anything pop out for Wood. I highly doubt it.
JP Sears (OAK) – He’s too volatile to trust at the moment for a low Win chance. I hope the slider can continue living in the zone, though.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) – He’s subbing in for the hurt Bryan Woo, sporting a sinker/slider/change approach. It can work, though Hancock doesn’t look fully warm for the season yet. I’d take this slow and consider him as a potential Toby.
Andrew Heaney (TEX) – He’s the poster child of chaos.
Dane Dunning (TEX) – There are times his slider and cutter do enough to make it work. Maybe worth a pickup for a Vargas Rule at some point.
Adrian Houser (NYM) – It’s fastballs all day and sometimes it works.
José Quintana (NYM) – Not the worst streaming option when he’s locked in with his command, but I’m not ready to trust that.
Josiah Gray (WSN) – He had some moments this spring, but it doesn’t look like he’s boasting any major changes to the repertoire. No thanks.
Patrick Corbin (WSN) – There’s a new cutter for both RHB and LHB that may actually make a difference this season. Sleeper for NL-Only..? Crazy, I know.
Trevor Williams (WSN) – #NeverTrevor
Jake Irvin (WSN) – He’s throwing a little harder and it’s still not a good fastball. His secondaries don’t do a whole lot either.
Kyle Hendricks (CHC) – It’s getting worse and that’s not a fun time for an 87 mph heater.
Javier Assad (CHC) – He’s filling in for the hurt Jameson Taillon (A healthy Taillon is a touch under Tyler Wells in the ranks) and I don’t expect him to go long nor produce, even against Rockie Road.
Nick Martinez (CIN) – I hope he’s actually starting and throwing at least 40% changeups while axing the dang four-seamer.
Andrew Abbott (CIN) – He’s around until Nick Lodolo shows up…and then one more start, or maybe not at all anymore? I dunno, he’s not looking great enough to start anyway.
Aaron Ashby (MIL) – Oh SNAP. He’s back after missing all of 2023 with shoulder surgery and…I’m pretty tepid about it. He takes Junis’ spot but may get displaced by Wade Miley shortly + Ashby’s 2022 wasn’t a season to cling to. He’s generally wild + his sinker needs to have the same aggression of 2021. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Colin Rea (MIL) – He looks to be starting for the Brewers and maybe that’s enough to warrant a stream here and there.
Joe Ross (MIL) – The Brewers could be going four-man the first turn and even if Ross was here, do you really want that?
Marco Gonzales (PIT) – He can be a decent streamer if the matchup is fantastic.
Bailey Falter (PIT) – He won’t be in the rotation for long.
Lance Lynn (STL) – The strikeout upside isn’t worth the volatility.
Miles Mikolas (STL) – There’s so little to chase here. You can do better.
Kyle Gibson (STL) – Maybe he has the slider working on a given night as a desperate streaming option. At least he has the leash to go six.
Steven Matz (STL) – Even hitting 97+ on his sinker over the weekend, Matz still failed to earn whiffs. This isn’t it.
Zack Thompson (STL) – He’s lower in velocity now and absolutely not the guy to go after.
Tommy Henry (ARI) – He’s in until Jordan Montgomery is ready to go or Eduardo Rodriguez is healthy and trust me, the Diamondbacks feel the same way too.
Jordan Montgomery (ARI) – Figured I’d have a word or two on him. As he’s not in the rotation yet while he ramps up, I see Montgomery as a potential Holly, though his ability doesn’t come with a Top 25 SP ceiling, unless he gets super fortunate with Wins. His success is reliant on pristine rhythm as he spots the edges + good fortune on balls in play and Arizona is a great fit for him. I can see him being around Nick Pivetta for some, though for me, I’d rather shoot for higher and grab the guys in Tier 7, making Monty lead Tier 8 once he returns.
Cal Quantrill (COL) – COL story, bro.
Dakota Hudson (COL) – COL story, bro.
Austin Gomber (COL) – COL story, bro.
Ryan Feltner (COL) – He actually has some intrigue with his four-seamer that should be a decent pitch upstairs, but his slider is more like a cutter that doesn’t get whiffs and there’s nothing else. Oh, and Coors n all.
Matt Waldron (SDP) – There was some consideration here as the SP #5 for the Padres, but it’s possible he pairs with Jhony Brito + his stuff speaks to a potential Toby and not much else.
Daulton Jefferies (SFG) – He might be out now with Snell returning this week and there’s possible streaming consideration later in the year.
Keaton Winn (SFG) – It seems like he could be ready to go, but a date with the Dodgers + Padres to kick off the season is a clear avoid for now.
SCROLL BACK UP AND READ THE NOTES
| Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corbin BurnesT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 2 | Zack Wheeler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 3 | Pablo López | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 4 | Luis Castillo | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 5 | George Kirby | Aces Gonna Ace Ratio Focused | +1 |
| 6 | Logan Webb | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | +2 |
| 7 | Cole Ragans | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 8 | Tarik Skubal | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 9 | Tyler Glasnow | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +2 |
| 10 | Kevin GausmanT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -3 |
| 11 | Zac Gallen | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | +1 |
| 12 | Max Fried | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus Injury Risk | +1 |
| 13 | Freddy Peralta | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +6 |
| 14 | Aaron Nola | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | - |
| 15 | Bobby Miller | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 16 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Aces Gonna Ace Wins Bonus | - |
| 17 | Zach Eflin | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 18 | Grayson Rodriguez | Aces Gonna Ace Team Context Effect | - |
| 19 | Joe Ryan | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 20 | Joe MusgroveT3 | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +2 |
| 21 | Chris Sale | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +3 |
| 22 | Shota Imanaga | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 23 | Logan Gilbert | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +2 |
| 24 | Sonny Gray | Ace Potential Ratio Focused Injury Risk | +UR |
| 25 | Yu Darvish | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +2 |
| 26 | Michael KingT4 | Ace Potential Quality Starts | +2 |
| 27 | Dylan Cease | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 28 | Jesús Luzardo | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 29 | Blake Snell | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | - |
| 30 | Tanner Bibee | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +3 |
| 31 | Nick Pivetta | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 32 | Jared Jones | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +13 |
| 33 | Bailey Ober | Ace Potential Quality Starts | -7 |
| 34 | Cristian Javier | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 35 | Nathan EovaldiT5 | Holly Quality Starts Injury Risk | +2 |
| 36 | Chris Bassitt | Holly Quality Starts | -1 |
| 37 | Merrill Kelly | Holly Quality Starts Team Context Effect | -1 |
| 38 | Aaron Civale | Holly Team Context Effect | +15 |
| 39 | Bryce Miller | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | - |
| 40 | Ryan Pepiot | Spice Girl Team Context Effect | +8 |
| 41 | Garrett Crochet | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +21 |
| 42 | Brayan BelloT6 | Spice Girl Quality Starts | +2 |
| 43 | Tanner Houck | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 44 | Kutter Crawford | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | -1 |
| 45 | Garrett Whitlock | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +10 |
| 46 | Reid DetmersT7 | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +15 |
| 47 | José Berríos | Cherry Bomb Quality Starts | +5 |
| 48 | Marcus Stroman | Holly Quality Starts | +24 |
| 49 | Yusei Kikuchi | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +9 |
| 50 | Casey MizeT8 | Spice Girl Ratio Focused | -8 |
| 51 | Reynaldo López | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside Team Context Effect | +9 |
| 52 | Luis Gil | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | -5 |
| 53 | MacKenzie Gore | Spice Girl Strikeout Upside | +16 |
| 54 | Reese Olson | Spice Girl Ratio Focused | - |
| 55 | Ronel Blanco | Cherry Bomb Team Context Effect | +UR |
| 56 | Cristopher Sánchez | Spice Girl Quality Starts | -7 |
| 57 | Gavin Stone | Spice Girl Team Context Effect | +9 |
| 58 | Nick LodoloT9 | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | +UR |
| 59 | Hunter Greene | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -2 |
| 60 | Hunter Brown | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -20 |
| 61 | Nestor Cortes | Cherry Bomb Team Context Effect Injury Risk | -10 |
| 62 | Carlos Rodón | Cherry Bomb Team Context Effect Injury Risk | -6 |
| 63 | Jordan Hicks | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | - |
| 64 | Triston McKenzie | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside Injury Risk | -30 |
| 65 | Michael WachaT10 | Toby Quality Starts | +10 |
| 66 | Jack Flaherty | Toby Quality Starts | -20 |
| 67 | Brandon Pfaadt | Toby Team Context Effect | +7 |
| 68 | Seth Lugo | Toby Quality Starts | +8 |
| 69 | Zack Littell | Toby Team Context Effect | +9 |
| 70 | James Paxton | Toby Team Context Effect Injury Risk | +3 |
| 71 | Tyler Wells | Toby Team Context Effect | - |
| 72 | Charlie Morton | Toby Team Context Effect | +10 |
| 73 | Jordan WicksT11 | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +19 |
| 74 | Ryne Nelson | Cherry Bomb Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | +13 |
| 75 | Louie Varland | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -7 |
| 76 | Brady Singer | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 77 | Ryan Weathers | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 78 | DL HallT12 | Toby Quality Starts | -13 |
| 79 | Erick Fedde | Toby Quality Starts | -2 |
| 80 | Sean Manaea | Toby Ratio Focused | +8 |
| 81 | Ranger Suárez | Toby Wins Bonus | +14 |
| 82 | Trevor RogersT13 | Cherry Bomb Streaming Option Strikeout Upside | -15 |
| 83 | Mitch Keller | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -24 |
| 84 | Luis Severino | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +10 |
| 85 | Kyle Harrison | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 86 | Kenta Maeda | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +7 |
| 87 | Bowden Francis | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 88 | A.J. Puk | Cherry Bomb Strikeout Upside | -24 |
| 89 | Frankie MontasT14 | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +8 |
| 90 | Logan Allen | Streaming Option Quality Starts | +8 |
| 91 | Clarke Schmidt | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | -11 |
| 92 | J.P. France | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | -13 |
| 93 | Cody Bradford | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | +7 |
| 94 | Max Meyer | Streaming Option Ratio Focused | -24 |
| 95 | Dean Kremer | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | +1 |
| 96 | Martín Pérez | Streaming Option Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 97 | Paul Blackburn | Streaming Option Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 98 | Graham Ashcraft | Streaming Option Wins Bonus | +UR |
| 99 | Spencer Turnbull | Streaming Option Team Context Effect | +UR |
| 100 | José Soriano | Streaming Option Strikeout Upside Stash Option | +UR |
Labels Legend
I’ve updated the tags for 2024, now allowing myself to tag a player in one three groups.
Overall Label
Aces Gonna Ace
Ace Potential
Holly
Toby
Cherry Bomb
Spice Girl
Vargas Rule
Streaming Option
Bonus Stat
QS Bonus
Wins Bonus
Strikeouts Bonus
Ratios Bonus
Rotation Spot Bonus
Team Context Effect
Special Tag
Stash Option
Injury Risk
Playing Time Question
A quick legend for those unfamiliar with our odd terms at Pitcher List:
Holly = Solid ratios, constant 6 IP & a 20-25% strikeout rate
Toby = Borderline arm for your 12-teamers who has a 20% or lower strikeout rate. They barely do enough.
Cherry Bomb = A volatile starting pitcher. Usually with strikeout upside and low ratio floor.
Spice Girl = Young arms who have massive ceilings or could be off your team in a few weeks.
Vargas Rule = A pitcher we’re picking up now given he’s on a roll, but we drop once he stumbles again.
Team Context Effect = Either ranked higher or lower due to team context (Coors, Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta, Cincy, etc.)
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@KUWasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)
i like how tier 6 is the red sox rotation haha
Hey Nick. One NA spot. Would you rather stash Manning or Jobe?
Thanks!
i think hunter brown needs to move down a few spots 👀