Welcome to the ninth edition of The Stash List for pitchers!
Ground Rules
- The Stash List is for your redraft leagues and does not consider impact beyond 2023
- Only current minor league players who are expected to make an impact this season are included
- Players who have already made their MLB debuts can not have thrown more than 50 IP in MLB
- Upside, proximity, health, and opportunity are all weighed for each player
- The focus is on 12-team leagues with standard categories
- Rankings and ownership percentages will be updated weekly
Graduates
This section of the column highlights the pitchers that were on the previous week’s list but have since made their MLB debuts and are no longer considered stashes because they’re still on their team’s active roster.
Bobby Miller, LAD (Prev. 3)
Bobby Miller made his MLB debut on the road against the Braves this week, and he pitched very well. His 99 mph fastball was his primary offering. He threw it in the zone 72% of the time but it wasn’t able to generate many whiffs and allowed a ton of foul balls, leading to a poor CSW%. He also threw a 88 mph slider and changeup about a quarter of the time each.
For the most part, his fastballs were located high and the breaking pitches were thrown low which is always good to see. The fastball could be a bit higher overall, but in general, he got a good amount of chases and suppressed balls in play. I’d like to see some of those foul balls turned into whiffs, but it was still a solid showing for his debut.
As it stands, he looks to be head and shoulders above Gavin Stone for a solidified spot in the rotation. Julio Urías will likely be back in June and barring another injury, someone will likely have to be sent back down. Miller has the upper hand to stay at least until Dustin May returns from the IL after the All-Star break.
Top 10 Pitcher Prospects to Stash
1. Gavin Williams, CLE – ETA June (1)
Gavin Williams was back to his dominant self this week, and my-oh-my was it glorious. 20 whiffs and a 26.3% SwStr%. 41% CSW. 46% oSwing%. 68% zContact%. It was ludicrous. Unfair. Each one of those numbers would be significantly higher than the average MLB marks this season.
It looks like this was the first game in his AAA stint this season where he went almost entirely with a fastball-slider combo. He also has a curveball and changeup that he’s been playing with the usage on. If he rides with just the two pitches, at least one of them has to be elite and it looks like his fastball hits the mold. It sits at 97-98 mph and in his last three games, he’s generated 35 whiffs on 150 fastballs thrown. That’s good for a 23.3% SwStr%.
2. Andrew Abbott, CIN – ETA June (2)
Andrew Abbott also had a fantastic start this week that was only a touch less impressive than Williams’. He generated 21 whiffs on 97 pitches and posted a 38% CSW. He doesn’t have overpowering velocity but he still generates a ton of whiffs and keeps hitters off balance with the threat of a huge bending curve from the left side. His fastball sits around 92 mph, his curve sits in the low 80s, and his change sits in the mid-80s.
Abbott likely was left out in the latest round of promotions for the Reds because he has the least amount of experience in AAA and he was promoted pretty quickly from AA. He just needs some more seasoning, and I’m confident he debuts in the first half of this season. With their high-end hitter prospects getting promoted soon as well, the Reds are about to become a lot more exciting to watch.
3. Ben Brown, CHC – ETA June (3)
Ben Brown saw much better results in his start this week after suffering his first blowup the week prior. The good news is that his velocity was back up and he generated 11 whiffs on 75 pitches, so he looked much like the pitcher he’s been since arriving in AAA in those senses. However, I mentioned in the last article that the locations of his fastball and slider were muddled in the middle of the plate, and that trend continued on Sunday.
Both pitches were in or around the zone most of the time, but individually they were inconsistent. It worked much better this time and he allowed much softer contact overall. But since he’s moving forward only featuring these two pitches, I think we’d like to see a bit more separation in their locations. The fastball averages 96 mph and the slider averages 86 mph, so he’s definitely more of a power pitcher who can likely get away with aiming at the middle of the plate in the Minors.
4. Quinn Priester, PIT – ETA June (6)
Quinn Priester had another really good outing this week where he allowed 0 runs over 5 innings, but he only struck out 2 hitters. He had 11 whiffs in 84 pitches, which is better than what he was doing early in the season but not quite as good as his previous outing where he featured his curveball primarily.
This is likely because he tinkered with his pitch mix again, this time going for a more balanced approach across the board. The 4-seamer, sinker, change, and curve were all thrown between 17 and 21 percent of the time, in that order of highest to lowest usage. Baseball Savant also has him registered as throwing 6 different pitches, which would definitely be his highest total of the season. It looks like he added a cutter in this start.
I’m hesitant to fully buy into his pitching identity until he does something for multiple starts in a row, but he is finding much more success recently. I think the main thing was to move away from throwing the 4-seamer and sinker more than 50% of the time. Now he just has to find the right formula for the rest of the arsenal.
5. DL Hall, BAL – ETA June (5)
DL Hall was lit up for 6 earned runs in less than 2 innings on Tuesday. His velocity was down 2-3 mph across the board and he was having issues throwing his breaking pitches for strikes. I don’t believe that the Orioles opinion of him changes much from start to start, as he has logged more than 100 IPs in AAA at this point and he’s been right on the precipice of the active roster for most of the season.
The Orioles have a full rotation and now that they’re playing like one of the best teams in the league, they likely don’t want to give him a starting spot until they know he has his command under control. For now, he still carries big reliever risk and it’s hard to get excited about him for redraft. That all changes if we see 2-3 consecutive solid starts with a walk rate under 10%.
Hall primarily features a lively fastball that sits in the mid-to-upper 90s that’s accompanied by wipeout breaking pitches. His power slider is his best secondary offering, and we had the chance to see it in action in a relief role last season. His stuff has been up and down this season, but he still carries really high upside when everything’s working well.
6. Bryan Woo, SEA – ETA July (7)
Bryan Woo posted another really solid outing this week, although it was his worst K:BB ratio (3:4) of the season. It’s not too concerning because his pitch shapes and velocity didn’t waver, and he’s been rock solid every start before this one. At this point, I think he’s not in AAA because the Mariners would like to avoid the PCL and there isn’t a spot as it stands on the MLB roster. I can see him continuing to light up AA hitters until his shot at the Bigs comes along.
Woo has an extremely smooth and repeatable delivery with a low arm angle that helps him create a significant amount of carry on his fastball. It sits at 94-95 and avoids the middle of the zone with solid command. He also features a slider and changeup, but he’s primarily a fastball/slider pitcher. The slider is shaped very similarly to the gyro slider that Bryce Miller also throws- it breaks tightly with very little horizontal movement. I think they might be onto something in Arkansas.
7. Cade Povich, BAL – ETA May (9)
Cade Povich righted the ship this week when he struck out 7 over 5 innings and gave up 2 runs. He allowed only the 2nd home run of the season and walked two batters. The command had a nice bounce back, and he could see a promotion in the first half of the season if he can break the plateau and get the walk rate below 10% consistently.
His fastball sits in the mid-90s from the left side and he also features a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. His delivery is a bit deceptive as he hides the ball well, and his arm slot is maybe a bit higher than the 3/4 range. This allows him to drop the hammer with a huge curveball, but likely limits the sweep on his slider. He’s confident with both breaking pitches and can fill up the zone with them if he needs to.
8. AJ Smith-Shawver, ATL – ETA August (10)
AJ Smith-Shawver is looking like an ace in the making. The youngest pitcher in AAA threw 7 innings of 2-run ball and recorded 8 strikeouts in his second start at the level. He saw significant improvements in his SwStr%, CSW%, and zContact% compared to his first start. The zContact% specifically, if you remember, was at 95% in his last start. This time it settled in at a much more palatable 76%, which is much better than the league average.
Smith-Shawver throws primarily a 4-seam fastball and slider, both of which have above-average velocity and generate a good amount of whiffs. He also worked in many more cutters and curveballs in his most recent start after going primarily with a fastball-slider combo in his first AAA start. Both the cutter and curve generated swings outside the zone more than 50% of the time, so it seems like they added some much-needed depth to his arsenal.
9. Patrick Monteverde, MIA – ETA July (8)
Patrick Monteverde didn’t give us any new data this week as he skipped his scheduled start on Tuesday. I haven’t seen any news as to why this was the case, but he’s listed as the probable starter on Sunday so I can assume that it was some kind of load management or a minor health issue. We’ll have some more info next week on him.
His arsenal lacks tremendous upside, but he has good command of multiple pitches and can change speeds and locate them well. His fastball sits in the low 90s and he has three variations- the 4-seam, 2-seam, and cutter. The cutter also works off of his slider really well and he can use those two pitches in tandem to keep hitters off balance. He also features a changeup, which could be his best whiff pitch.
10. Will Warren, NYY – ETA July (NR)
After earning a promotion to AAA and looking solid in his first start, Will Warren was lit up in his second start at the level this week. It might seem weird that he didn’t make this list after a good start and made it after a bad one, but what I’m focusing on here is the fact that he was working on 5 days rest for the first time this season. It can both offer a possible explanation for the blowup, and it says that the MLB club sees him as a rotation option in the near future.
The minor league schedule is much different than the MLB one in the fact that each team has one off day each week and it’s always the same day- Monday. That causes the 5-man pitching rotation takes 6 days to complete and almost all pitchers will have 6 days between starts if you look at their game logs. The exception is when a starter pitches on Tuesday, they usually pitch 5 days later on Sunday right before the off day. But if you see a pitcher throw on 5 days of rest and it’s not because of the Tuesday-Sunday schedule, that usually means that pitcher is working towards a promotion.
Warren features a 5-pitch mix. His 4-seam fastball is his primary offering and it averages 94 mph. It’s the pitch he’s able to throw in the zone with the most consistency and it generates a fair amount of whiffs and chases, but nothing too crazy. It’s a good table setter.
He has two different sliders- a sweeper in the low 80s that’s his best whiff pitch (but it can have trouble staying in or near the zone), and a mid-to-high 80s power slider that he can throw for strikes much more often. He also has a sinker and changeup but throws them 10% less each and there isn’t a ton of data on them yet. It’s a very interesting profile that’s much more promising than the AAA results currently show.
The Watchlist
This section of The Stash List is aimed towards those of you who play in deep leagues (15+ teams or 375+ players rostered) where some of the guys on the list above might already be taken because of their higher pedigree. These players’ debuts will likely be a bit further out than the players listed above, but the purpose is to be ready to pounce on them as soon as it becomes clear that an opportunity might open up.
The players are listed in alphabetical order, and I don’t have the time to do write-ups for these guys, so I’d highly suggest checking out their Fangraphs pages and/or watching one of their starts. Also, shout out to @SpokaneWaUpdate on Twitter for inspiring this section of the article!
Kyle Harrison has a start this week where he only walked one batter, and he had a start a few weeks ago where he walked none. He’ll have to do that more consistently and less sparsely to get a serious look at a promotion. I remain skeptical, but it’s worth noting that Harrison is one of the youngest pitchers in AAA and he has a strikeout rate north of 40%. In dynasty, he’ll likely be fine. In redraft, don’t hold your breath but be ready to pounce.
Jack Leiter began to make some noise after drastically cutting his walk rate over a few starts in a row. And then he went and walked 7 batters in his 4-inning start this week. Womp womp. We’ll see how he bounces back, but his command is obviously still a work in progress.
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)