The List 9/19 – Analyzing Every Starting Pitcher’s Final Starts of the Year

Nick Pollack ranks the starting pitcher streamers for today & tomorrow.

Every day of the 2022 baseball season, I’ve been looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.

With just over two weeks left of the season, I decided the most helpful thing I could do is expand my daily rankings to look at each remaining day of the season in one massive reference article. There are many problems with doing this

There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Twitch.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 10am – 12pm ET. If you have questions about these ranks, please ask during the morning Twitch AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.

 

HUGE thanks to Dave Swan for helping put together this week’s tables. Made the process so much faster than usual.

 

My Ranking Process Outlined

 

There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind (Updated 9/10):

Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man. This includes “if I have them rostered, I’m starting them” pitchers.

Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good-not-elite pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm. These pitchers have a 50% or greater chance of performing well in my view.

Questionable Start – Think of this tier as “I don’t want to start these pitchers in a vacuum, but you could do worse.” Streamers found in this tier are not pitchers I’m targeting and are only if you are in dire need of one. To play it safe with streaming, just start the Probably Start streamers.

Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it. Seriously, these pitchers have a very slim chance of success or sometimes none at all.

Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.

 

These schedules are going to change. It’s the biggest concern I have investing the time into a massive article like this as we all know rotations change, injuries happen, starters are pushed back, and rainouts are a thing. It means to take these with a grain of salt, but I believe it’s best to have a plan and adapt rather than starting with no plan at all.

Also keep in mind that my feelings toward some of these starters will be altered by their progression through the rest of the year – take Sonny Gray’s velocity dip in Monday’s game, which affects our view of him for his next start (hamstring issue). The rankings are fluid through the end of the year and I can only make my best estimate now. Make sure to check out my daily rankings for more help in the final weeks.

 

Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.

(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener.

As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses:

Nick’s Loose Team Offense Rankings (Updated 9/12)

 

H’ok. Buckle in, the rest of this article is 16 tables for each remaining day of the year (Monday 9/19 not included as games have already started). I’ll have a few lines of notes for each, but much more detail in my daily today/tomorrow streaming articles when the time comes.

I’ve also elected to highlight potential streamers in Green and Yellow colors to outline who my favorite targets are down the stretch. Green = Absolutely, Yellow = if you’re in need of something.

 

Tuesday 9/20 Starting Pitcher Rankings

Austin Voth is the prize here as he faces the Tigers, but Adrian Sampson and Brayan Bello could be of use for those who need it. Don’t get sucked into the depths of the DNS tier, nor rely heavily on ~5 frames from Dylan Bundy.

And that Adam Wainwright start may be the start that makes us lose faith in him for the rest of the year. You may want to hold off there.

 

Wednesday 9/21 Starting Pitcher Rankings

What a glorious day for streaming pitchers. Drew Smyly marks the first “auto-start” streamer I’ve had all year, while Jordan Lyles, Bailey Ober, and Roansy Contreras are all available in over 70% of leagues. Get chasing.

Be careful with Luis Severino and Zack Wheeler. I imagine both will have their pitch counts heavily limited and they may be shaking off rust in these Still ILL situations. I expect both to come into form in their second and/or third starts, but play it safe here.

 

Thursday 9/22 Starting Pitcher Rankings

I don’t love going after Mitch Keller after a plethora of options on Wednesday. Even though it’s the same tier, going after Kyle Bradish, Kyle Gibson, Mitch Kellerand Domingo Germán is not the same as starting Severino and Wheeler.

I’m not sure what to do about Jack Flaherty as he’s been off lately. I’m anticipating he’ll get it together by the final week, but there may some growing pains against the Padres.

 

Friday 9/23 Starting Pitcher Rankings

Friday’s streamers are better than Thursday’s, with a trio of strong options in Braxton Garrett, Hayden Wesneskiand Ryne NelsonKeep in mind, I’m assuming it’s Garrett with Trevor Rogers‘ season-ending injury. It could mess up a lot of things here.

Don’t overlook Cody Morris or even Erick Fedde if you’re searching for options this weekend. Just don’t go with Eduardo Rodriguezokay? Thanks.

 

Saturday 9/24 Starting Pitcher Rankings

You may have noticed, I’m not highlighting every streaming option in the third tiers, just the ones that I like. That means Davis Martin, Javier Assadand Aníbal Sánchez get considered with their excellent matchups (yes, even after Assad struggled with his cutter against Rockie Roadhe could adjust and pull it off), while Bailey Falter, Johan Oviedo, Luis Cessaand Glenn Otto are back-up options if I genuinely felt I needed one for Saturday.

I’m not sure where to rank Sonny Gray given the hamstring issue that took down his velocity and forced him out of Monday’s game early. Monitor that one.

 

Sunday 9/25 Starting Pitcher Rankings

I’m still blown away by the low rostership of Wade Miley (13% at the time of writing this!) as he gets two excellent matchups this week. Circle Luis Ortiz’s start against the Cubs as well – his upper-90s velocity + a whiff-heavy slider could grant heavy returns on a dire Sunday. Watch his start earlier in the week against the Yankees for more on that one.

Quick note: I hope Carlos Rodón’s cracked nail is fine for the Diamondbacks. He may get pushed back because of it.

Double quick note: The Brewers activated Aaron Ashby after I published this on Monday and he could pitch in Josh Lindblom’s place on Sunday against the Reds. If all goes well on Monday, I think I’m okay with Ashby there.

 

Monday 9/26 Starting Pitcher Rankings

We’re getting into the weeds of predicting an extra start into the future now, which means these tables are going to be a bit dicey. Check back next Monday for the updated tables + the morning articles, of course.

Roansy Contreras is just sitting out there on your wire, waiting for you to pick him up. You want him for this start against the Reds.

I’m expecting Luis Severino to get ramped up a bit more by his start next Monday, which elevates him to the top of the second tier, even against the Jays. Let’s hope I’m right.

 

Tuesday 9/27 Starting Pitcher Rankings

I’ve been pretty down on Mitch Keller, but this is a game in Pittsburgh hosting the Reds. I think it’s the safest I’ll feel streaming Keller all year. I really don’t like the rest of that third tier, by the way.

I’m expecting Bailey Ober to be more stretched out for that start against the White Sox + Jake Odorizzi to not look so bad this week that we turn away from a solid stream against the Nationals.

 

Wednesday 9/28 Starting Pitcher Rankings

Give me all the Drew Smyly with his 93+ heaters upstairs paired with excellent hooks down.

I don’t like any of the tier three streamers here, even Matt Manningwho may have earned your love recently. He’s too volatile without enough of a ceiling.

Consider Ryan Yarbrough for a possible cheap Win – he often has an opener and can sneak in four innings right when he needs to.

 

Thursday 9/29 Starting Pitcher Rankings

I have no idea what the Red Sox are doing with Nathan Eovaldi and it makes it awfully hard to rank him. At the very least, he’s likely a Still ILL and I’d rather just not deal with it.

This is once again assuming Braxton Garrett takes over for Trevor Rogers and he could be a streaming option against the Brewers. Michael Lorenzen may be of consideration as well if he doesn’t do anything ridiculous to sway our view of him. And hey, maybe Cody Morris too?

 

Friday 9/30 Starting Pitcher Rankings

I’m liking a pair of options here. With Bailey Falter sticking in the rotation, he’ll be around to face Natty Lite and could give you six quality frames at the cost of free.

Don’t sleep on Hayden Wesneski against the Reds, either. The Cubs may be doing some weird things with their rotation with Keegan Thompson returning, but if this holds for Hayden, I’m going for it. His hook is great and the fastball is good enough.

 

Saturday 10/1 Starting Pitcher Rankings

October first is an interesting day. You have the Phillies heading to D.C. for a doubleheader and I’m assuming Noah Syndergaard gets brought back into the rotation for the day, which could work out if you’re in need of a start…though he may not be stretched out enough.

You also have Aaron Civale in his second start back from the IL and facing the Royals. Give him the Still ILL in the first game and I’m hoping he shakes off the rust effectively.

I’m digging Ryne Nelson’s fastball and hoping he regains the feel for his secondaries this week, making me confident in a start against the Giants. We’ll see.

If Javier Assad rebounds this week, it may make me lean more on this start against the Reds – h*ck, he could become the streaming pick if he’s marvelous prior.

And then there’s ole Dylan Bundy facing the Tigers. I really don’t want to…but it’s the Tigers. Oh boy.

Quick note: Hey, it’s me again. The note about Aaron Ashby coming off the IL after I already published the article. Circle this start against the Marlins if he takes Josh Lindblom’s spot – that could be GLORIOUS and second tier worth with a high enough pitch count in his third start back.

 

Sunday 10/2 Starting Pitcher Rankings

Hey, we get Wade Miley and Roansy Contreras again! It may be a little aggressive for me to place Contreras in the second tier, and I could be projecting my optimism that he’ll flourish in his starts leading up to it.

I almost gave the yellow tag to Adrian Houser as he faces the Marlins, but I really don’t like trusting Houser, even against Miami. Take a break from the third tier on this Sunday if you can.

 

Monday 10/3 Starting Pitcher Rankings

Look at that Jake Odorizzi start against the Marlins. Things could shake up for Atlanta down the stretch, but if he’s able to survive against the Phillies, I imagine Atlanta will keep him on track and I’d jump all over this start.

Also consider Adrian Sampson in Cincy if you’re chasing some late magic. I don’t love it, but I recognize Sampson is able to go 6+ against weak offenses. The same goes for Zach Davies as he may have his vintage changeup working.

 

Tuesday 10/4 Starting Pitcher Rankings

It’s the penultimate day of the season and you may have a pair of sneaky starts in Drey Jameson and Cody Morris to help give you the edge. Keep them in your mind come the final week.

I don’t know what the Red Sox are doing with Nathan Eovaldionce again, but if he comes back the previous week and excels, I’ll likely put him in the second tier instead.

Speaking of the second tier, our buddy Drew Smyly is back there against the Reds. You absolutely do that one.

There are a few doubleheaders on this Tuesday. Who knows who goes for Detroit and Texas, but you’re not going for those matchups and starters. The Yankees could toss out Clarke Schmidt and I’d avoid it as I don’t expect a full 5+ inning effort. As for the Mariners, it may be Chris Flexenwho gets the same analysis…except it’s the Tigers. ~60 pitches could mean five frames there.

 

Wednesday 10/5 Starting Pitcher Rankings

It’s the last day of the season and I’d be shocked if 1) I didn’t have to re-do this entire table because so many are wrong and 2) If all these aces actually are still pitching. There’s a good argument for each of these teams needing their studs to go, but you may see plenty limited by this day, with some random starting instead. Don’t overplan for this Wednesday and expect your aces to not get this extra start.

I could see the Angels sticking with the plan to start Michael Lorenzen here, though. Give him those extra innings to cover the ones he missed and it could work out in his favor against the Athletics.

Luis Cessa against the Cubs is another desperate option, but generally pitchers are limited on the last day in order to give more guys in the pen a shot to end the season on a high note. Don’t be like me in college and leave your work to the last day.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

One response to “The List 9/19 – Analyzing Every Starting Pitcher’s Final Starts of the Year”

  1. Jaybird says:

    This is just amazingly helpful. Must have been a ton of work. Thank you so much Nick!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Account / Login