The List 8/27: All ROS Schedules For The Top 100 Starting Pitchers

Nick Pollack ranks the Top 100 Starting Pitchers in fantasy baseball, now with all estimated ROS schedules added.

What is happening. This week’s edition of The List is going to be completely different from what you’re used to and will be in this format through the end of the 2018 season. I’ll be ranking the Top 100 (and a little more) this week per usual, but I will be attaching their estimated ROS schedule as well, to give you better idea of who has easy or hard schedules through the rest of the season.

But before we get started, there is one elephant in the room that made this really really difficult:

How do we rank strength of schedule?

I can’t give you a good answer. Last 30 days wOBA means the Blue Jays are a near top tier offense with the Reds near the bottom. Season wOBA doesn’t tell the whole tale either with teams hurt, injured, etc. Shorter samples get weighed heavily by a few blowouts here and there and suddenly I have no way to spit out a tiered list to make this easy.

I need to have some system for this as I’m going to be going over every pitcher’s estimated ROS schedule that matters for your fantasy team and I can’t just eye it out because that will get carved up in an instant.

So I’ve elected to go the extra mile for y’all. Here is a quick table of my opponent rankings ROS, with an exception being made for @COL/COL as they are wildly different teams outside of the massively helpful Coors Field. I’ve sorted teams into five tiers of Elite, Strong, Average, Weak, and Poor. 

Elite Offense@COLHOUNYYBOSCLECHCOAK
Strong OffenseLADATLMILSEASTLARI
Average OffenseWSHTEXPITTBRLAACIN
Weak OffensePHIMINSFGCOLTOR
Poor OffenseSDPMIANYMDETKCRCHWBAL

You probably have qualms with these assessments as I may have overlooked certain elements here and there, but I think we can all generally agree with these. If you don’t, make slight adjustments to the following List as the estimated schedules aren’t changing.

With that out of the way, I’m going to shoot out this massive table for you. There are a few things you have to keep in mind when reading this new edition of The List:

  • These schedules are not set in stone. Seriously, I tried my best to estimate this but man there is just so much up in the air
  • I will be updating this every Monday until the end of the season, just like The List normally operates.
  • The List is in order of who I’d want to own today for all future starts the rest of the way. I’m putting less weight on the final start of each pitcher as A) your H2H playoffs may be over and B) that final week is a mix of call-ups, setting up for playoffs, limiting innings, etc.
  • And while I am putting less weight on that final start, I am favoring pitchers with seven starts over six, like Jacob deGrom, Charlie Morton, Stephen Strasburg, etc. It might not come to fruition as mentioned in the previous point, but I still need to give them bonus points.
  • I did my best to guess return dates for injured pitchers. In the end, I don’t know and the guy who says he knows, yeah he doesn’t know.
RankPitcher1st Start2nd Start3rd Start4th Start5th Start6th Start7th Start
1Jacob Degrom@CHC@LADPHI@BOS@PHIATLMIA
2Gerrit ColeOAKLAA@BOS@DETSEA@TOR@BAL
3Aaron NolaWSH@MIA@NYMMIA@ATL@COLATL
4Max Scherzer@PHISTLCHC@ATLNYMMIA
5Clayton KershawARINYM@CIN@STLSDP@SFG
6Justin VerlanderLAAMIN@DETARILAA@BAL
7Carlos CarrascoMINTBR@TOR@TBRCHW@CHW@KCR
8Patrick Corbin@SFG@LADATL@COLCHCCOL@SDP
9Noah Syndergaard@CHC@SFGPHIMIA@PHI@WSHMIA
10Corey KluberTBRKCR@TBRDETBOS@KCR
11Blake Snell@CLEBALOAK@TEXNYYTOR
12Zack Greinke@LADATL@COL@HOUCOL@SDP
13Luis SeverinoDET@OAK@MINTORBAL@TBR
14Charlie MortonOAKLAA@BOSARISEA@TOR@BAL
15Jack FlahertyPITCIN@DETLAD@ATLMIL@CHC
16David PriceMIA@ATLHOUNYM@CLEBAL
17Mike ClevingerMINKCR@TORDETBOS@CHW
18Jameson Taillon@ATLCIN@STLKCRMIL@CIN
19J.A. HappDET@OAK@MINBOSBAL@BOS
20Mike FoltynewiczCHCBOS@ARIWSHPHI@NYM
21Stephen Strasburg@PHIMILCHC@PHI@MIAMIA@COL
22Madison BumgarnerARI@COL@MILCOL@STLSDP
23Miles MikolasPIT@WSH@DETLAD@ATLMIL
24Walker Buehler@TEXARI@COL@STLCOL@ARI@SFG?
25Jon Gray@LAA@SDPLADARI@LADPHIWSH
26Masahiro TanakaCHWDET@SEA@MINBOS@TBR@BOS
27Zack Wheeler@SFG@LADMIA@BOS@WSHATL
28Cole HamelsNYM@MIL@WSHCIN@ARIPITSTL
29German Marquez@SDPSFGARI@SFG@ARIPHI
30Kyle Hendricks@PHI@WSHMIL@ARI@CHWSTL
31Kyle Freeland@LAASFGLAD@SFG@LADPHIWSH
32Kyle Gibson@CLE@TEXKCR@KCR@DETDETCHW
33Rick Porcello@CHW@ATLTOR@NYY@CLENYY
34Rich HillARINYM@CIN@STLSDP@ARI
35Jake ArrietaWSH@MIAWSHMIA@ATL@COL
36Luis CastilloMIL@PITSDP@CHC@MIAKCR
37Alex Wood@TEXNYM@COL@STLCOL@ARI
38Nick PivettaCHC@MIAWSHNYM@ATL@COL
39Jose Berrios@TEXKCRNYY@DET@OAKCHW
40Dallas KeuchelOAKMIN@BOSARILAA@TOR
41Shane BieberTBR@TOR@TBRCHWBOS@KCR
42Robbie Ray@LADSDP@COL@HOUCOLLAD
43Zack Godley@SFGSDPATL@HOUCHCLAD
44Carlos Rodon@NYYBOSLAA@KCR@CLECLE@MIN
45Nathan Eovaldi@CHWHOUTOR@NYYBALNYY
46Michael KopechBOSDET@KCR@CLECHC@MIN
47Clay Buchholz@SFG@LADATL@COLCHCLAD@SDP
48Joe Musgrove@STLCIN@STL@MILMIL@CHC
49Trevor Cahill@HOUNYYTEX@TBRMIN@SEA
50Zach EflinWSHCHC@NYMMIANYM@COLATL
51Tyler Glasnow@ATL@TORCLEOAK@TORNYY
52CC SabathiaCHW@OAK@SEATORBAL@TBR
53Kevin GausmanPIT@ARI@SFGSTLPHI@PHI
54Mike FiersSEANYY@BALLAAMIN@LAA
55Tanner RoarkMILSTL@PHI@ATLNYM@COL
56Anibal SanchezPITBOS@SFGWSHPHI@NYM
57Derek HollandNYM@MILATL@SDPSDPLAD
58Dereck RodriguezARI@COLATLCOL@STLLAD
59Dylan Bundy@KCR@TBRCHWTOR@BOSHOU
60Jon LesterNYM@PHI@WSHMIL@ARIPITSTL
61Lance LynnCHWDET@SEATORBOS@TBR@BOS
62Joey LucchesiSEA@ARI@CINTEX@LADARI
63Michael Fulmer@NYY@CHWHOU@CLEKCR@MIN
64Andrew Heaney@HOU@TEXTEXSEA@HOUTEX
65Chris Archer@ATLMIA@STLKCR@CHC@CIN
66Vince VelasquezCHC@NYMWSHNYM@ATLATL
67Sean NewcombTBRBOS@ARIWSHSTL@NYM@PHI
68Junior Guerra@CIN@WSHSFGPITCIN@STL
69Jose Quintana@PHI@MILMILCIN@CHWPIT
70Jhoulys Chacin@WSHCHC@CHCCIN@PITDET
71Hyun-Jin RyuARI@COL@CINCOLSDP@SFG
72Matt HarveyMIL@PITSDP@CHC@MILKCR
73Matthew Boyd@KCR@CHWSTL@CLEKCR@MIN
74Tyler Anderson@SDPLADARI@LAD@ARIWSH
75Mike MinorLADLAA@LAA@SDPSEA@SEA
76Freddy Peralta@CINCHCSFGPIT@PIT@STL
77Steven Matz@SFGPHIMIA@PHI@WSHMIA
78Pablo LopezTOR@PIT@NYMWSH@WSH@NYM
79Jakob JunisDET@CLE@MINMIN@PIT@CINCLE
80Trevor Richards@BOSPHI@NYM@PHICIN@WSH
81Jaime Barria@HOU@TEXTEXSEA@HOUOAK
82Gio Gonzalez@PHISTLCHC@ATLNYMMIA
83Trevor Williams@STLCINMIA@MILMIL@CHC
84Danny DuffyDET@CLECHWMIN@DET@CIN
85Sam Gaviglio@BAL@MIACLE@BOS@BALTBR@TBR
86Anthony DesclafaniMIL@STLSDPLAD@MIL@MIAPIT
87Jake Odorizzi@CLE@HOUNYY@KCR@OAKDET
88Austin GomberCIN@WSHPITLADSFG@CHC
89Wei-Yin ChenTOR@PIT@NYMWSHCIN@NYM
90Jacob NixSEACOL@CINTEX@LAD@SFG
91Chase Anderson@WSHSFG@CHCCIN@STLDET
92Edwin Jackson@HOUSEATEX@TBRLAA@SEA
93Lucas GiolitoBOSDET@KCR@BALCHC@MIN
94Mike Leake@OAK?NYY?@LAA?@HOU?OAK?TEX?
95Marco Gonzales@SDPBALNYY@LAA@TEXOAK
96Aaron Sanchez@MIATBR@BOS@NYYTBRHOU
97Daniel PoncedeleonCIN@DETPIT@ATLSFG@CHC
98Jose Urena@BOSPHI@PIT@PHICIN@WSH
99Wade Leblanc@OAKBALSDP@HOU@TEXTEX
100Julio TeheranTBRPIT@ARI@SFGSTLPHI@PHI
101Ivan Nova@STL@ATLMIA@MILKCR@CHC@CIN
102Reynaldo Lopez@NYYDETLAA@BALCHCCLE
103Brian JohnsonMIA@CHWHOUNYM@NYYBAL
104Andrew SuarezNYM@COLATL@SDP@STLLAD
105John GantPIT@WSHPITLADSFGMIL
106Alex CobbTOR@SEAOAKCHW@NYYHOU
107Brett Anderson@HOUSEATEX@BALLAA@SEA@LAA
108Felix Pena@HOU@CHWTEX@OAK@HOUOAK
109Homer Bailey@STL@PITLAD@CHC@MIAPIT
110Chris SaleTOR?NYM?@CLE?NYY?
111James Paxton@OAK?NYY?@LAA?@HOU?OAK?
112Eduardo Rodriguez@CWS?HOU?TOR@NYY?BAL?NYY?
113Tyler Skaggs@OAK?@HOU?OAK?
114Sean Manaea@BAL?@TBR?MIN?@LAA?
115Marcus StromanCLE?@NYY?@BAL?HOU?TBR?

Notes

  • There is a ton to talk about and I’m going save the time of getting this out sooner instead of detailing multiple pitchers in these notes. Looking forward to diving into all this info with everyone in the comments and on Reddit.

8 pitchers with favorable ROS schedules

8 pitchers with poor ROS schedules

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Worked with MSG, Rotographs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former pitching coach and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

  • Avatar MIKE GAYLIN says:

    Just like every Monday I am refreshing the page anticipating the List….Then you create this masterpiece! Thank you!

  • Avatar TheKraken says:

    Thanks for doing this! I dont know that properly stratifying teams is important but…. Identifying outlier offenses is worthwhile and park factors probably matter in extreme examples. The difference between above average and below probably doesnt matter one bit… But @nyy, @hou would matter just like Fla, and matters. I woukd think that this list should be a lot like last weeks but with movement for extreme matchup.

  • Avatar Let's Play Two says:

    I do see Pax anywhere on the list. He’s supposed to be back end of the week. Where is he ranked and his estimated schedule? For a top-tier pitcher, I’m surprised he’s not listed.

    • Avatar Adrian says:

      He’s listed at 112, after Chris Sale. I wish he was included with the rest of the pitchers, considering that he’ll be back this Friday.

  • Avatar Perfect Game says:

    Which two do I drop in a standard roto – QS, K, ERA, WHIP?

    D-Rod
    Wheeler
    Marquez

  • Avatar Mike Trout says:

    Man much thanks and respect for putting in all the time to make this. Good stuff as always.

  • Avatar cbd says:

    Thank you for all your work guys! Just don’t get how you bumped Castillo even higher in the list? How can I ever feel confident starting him and how is that useful for the playoffs?

  • Avatar Jim says:

    I have a hard time buying that Pivetta is a top 40 SP ROS, despite his favorable schedule. He has recently been lit up by Toronto, the Mets, the Reds and Padres — not exactly juggernauts. Rose tinted shades perhaps?

    • Avatar Ryan Hicks says:

      LOL totally agree. Been saying this for half the season but if you’ve been following along at all Nick is playing favoritism here; as he loves him for some reason. Pivetta is done for ROS. He isn’t worth rostering this year and hasn’t been since at least the start of the second half. Maybe he turns it around next year. Certainly one to keep a close eye on.

      • Nick Pollack Nick Pollack says:

        Well, he’s a guy that is more like a Cherry Bomb than just done.

        We saw him spin off 3 fantastic starts including an outing where he demolished the Red Sox, then the last two have been bad.

        I know you’re in a shallower league, Ryan, which means going 3-for-5 hurts a lot more, but I wouldn’t go out there and say he’s “done” after two starts.

        I have to ask though, you’ve heard plenty of my arguments as to why I like Pivetta, it’s not like I just say “he’s good” and call it a day.

        What part of it do you disagree with mostly?

        • Avatar Ryan Hicks says:

          I don’t disagree that it depends on how deep your league is, and yes I am in a shallower league than probably most people play on average. But even then I still don’t see the value or hype here. Even after he consistently proves otherwise.

          Sure, I rostered him a handful of starts back in June/July when he had a couple good starts stringed together. He’s pitched a few great games, but those few don’t warrant the hype and ranking he’s carried all year from the fantasy world. I know I’m not the only one with these sentiments either; look at the yahoo ownership at 42% and has dropped 4% ownership in the last 24 hours.

          Every week you consistently rank him high and praise him even after bad performances saying it was just bad luck. It’s not a matter of being unlucky when you’ve pitched 130+ innings and still produce bad performances on a regular basis. At some point you have to concede and realize it’s just not there this season. This reminds me a lot of how you were gungho on Fulmer 1 or 2 seasons ago and kept hyping him up when he wasn’t performing at the level in which he should be and it took you all season to finally get off that train.

          If you look at Pivetta’s stats they are pretty close in line with his last season stats. Which are not good. He’s certainly improved this season, and maybe next season is the one where the continual improvement shows that he is worth rostering all year.

    • Nick Pollack Nick Pollack says:

      At the same time, he was able to be a stud against the Red Sox right before it.

      I don’t think two starts in a row is enough to give up for six more.

      I’ve talked a lot about Pivetta this year and I totally understand if you don’t side with the rhetoric I make about Pivetta as a starter. Still, I wouldn’t call this rose tinted shades, it’s more that his upside comes out more than not + the other options behind him aren’t solid as stone, either.

      Why not chase Pivetta’s upside over the guys behind him who have plenty of problems too?

      • Avatar Glenn says:

        Because for the season, he’s ranked (on Yahoo) behind Jordan Zimmerman and Mike Leake?

      • Avatar Grind Crunch says:

        I’ve also been burned on Pivetta multiple times this season because I trust Nick’s judgment, but then again he did get me on the Severino AND Nola train at the beginning of last year which has worked out pretty well for me these last two seasons. Anyway just saying he isn’t just making things up or flipping a coin to decide who has elite potential.

  • Avatar Frankie says:

    You have your work cut out for you when the Dodgers start playing hit potato with their starters. Urias will probably get 1 start down the stretch, Buehler will head to the pen and Chicken Strip will join the rotation again at some point. Ah the fun of projections.

  • Avatar Bob says:

    I love this. Thank you. I was surprised eovaldi didn’t drop more. I just don’t have the faith in him to use him anymore even against the white Sox plus he has nyy twice = punt for me. I think I’d rather own sabathia ros based on the schedule.

  • Avatar larry says:

    Fulmer is schedule to go @ KC this week not NYY

  • Avatar ben says:

    This is insane. Thanks! Is your ranking of E-Rod mostly from uncertainty, or are you baking in assumed performance when he returns?

  • Avatar sturock says:

    Thanks, Nick.

  • Avatar ashtray says:

    I think # 97 is missing from the list

  • Avatar Tony says:

    The link over in the sidebar still points to the 8/20 list — is this intentional?

    • Nick Pollack Nick Pollack says:

      Ah, thanks! Fixed it.

      Not sure what to do about the actual table though, might take a moment to get that sorted out.

  • Avatar Matt Nielsen says:

    Thanks Nick! Any faith in Chen with a nice schedule, or is he still an “avoid” if you can?

  • Avatar Steve says:

    The list over on the right side of every page hasn’t been updated to match this list.

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