What is happening. This week’s edition of The List is going to be completely different from what you’re used to and will be in this format through the end of the 2018 season. I’ll be ranking the Top 100 (and a little more) this week per usual, but I will be attaching their estimated ROS schedule as well, to give you better idea of who has easy or hard schedules through the rest of the season.
But before we get started, there is one elephant in the room that made this really really difficult:
How do we rank strength of schedule?
I can’t give you a good answer. Last 30 days wOBA means the Blue Jays are a near top tier offense with the Reds near the bottom. Season wOBA doesn’t tell the whole tale either with teams hurt, injured, etc. Shorter samples get weighed heavily by a few blowouts here and there and suddenly I have no way to spit out a tiered list to make this easy.
I need to have some system for this as I’m going to be going over every pitcher’s estimated ROS schedule that matters for your fantasy team and I can’t just eye it out because that will get carved up in an instant.
So I’ve elected to go the extra mile for y’all. Here is a quick table of my opponent rankings ROS, with an exception being made for @COL/COL as they are wildly different teams outside of the massively helpful Coors Field. I’ve sorted teams into five tiers of Elite, Strong, Average, Weak, and Poor.
You probably have qualms with these assessments as I may have overlooked certain elements here and there, but I think we can all generally agree with these. If you don’t, make slight adjustments to the following List as the estimated schedules aren’t changing.
With that out of the way, I’m going to shoot out this massive table for you. There are a few things you have to keep in mind when reading this new edition of The List:
- These schedules are not set in stone. Seriously, I tried my best to estimate this but man there is just so much up in the air
- I will be updating this every Monday until the end of the season, just like The List normally operates.
- The List is in order of who I’d want to own today for all future starts the rest of the way. I’m putting less weight on the final start of each pitcher as A) your H2H playoffs may be over and B) that final week is a mix of call-ups, setting up for playoffs, limiting innings, etc.
- And while I am putting less weight on that final start, I am favoring pitchers with seven starts over six, like Jacob deGrom, Charlie Morton, Stephen Strasburg, etc. It might not come to fruition as mentioned in the previous point, but I still need to give them bonus points.
- I did my best to guess return dates for injured pitchers. In the end, I don’t know and the guy who says he knows, yeah he doesn’t know.
|Rank||Pitcher||1st Start||2nd Start||3rd Start||4th Start||5th Start||6th Start||7th Start|
- There is a ton to talk about and I’m going save the time of getting this out sooner instead of detailing multiple pitchers in these notes. Looking forward to diving into all this info with everyone in the comments and on Reddit.
8 pitchers with favorable ROS schedules
- Carlos Carrasco – (MIN, TBR, @TOR, @TBR, CHW, @CHW, @KCR)
- Shane Bieber – (TBR, @TOR, @TBR, CHW, BOS, @KCR)
- Walker Buehler – (@TEX, ARI, @COL, @STL, COL, @ARI, @SFG)
- Jon Gray – (@LAA, @SDP, LAD, ARI, @LAD, PHI, WSH
- Kevin Gausman – (PIT, @ARI, @SFG, STL, PHI, @PHI)
- Junior Guerra – (@CIN, @WSH, SFG, PIT, CIN, @STL)
- Steven Matz – (@SFG, PHI, MIA, @PHI, @WSH, MIA)
- Wei-Yin Chen – (TOR, @PIT, @NYM, WSH, CIN, @NYM)
- Jose Quintana – (@PHI, @MIL, MIL, CIN, @CHW, PIT)
8 pitchers with poor ROS schedules
- J.A. Happ – (DET, @OAK, @MIN, BOS, BAL, @BOS)
- Michael Fulmer – (@NYY, @CHW, HOU, @CLE, KCR, @MIN)
- Jake Odorizzi – (@CLE, @HOU, NYY, @KCR, @OAK, DET)
- Joe Musgrove – (@STL, CIN, @STL, @MIL, MIL, @CHC)
- Zack Greinke (@LAD, ATL, @COL, @HOU, COL, @SDP)
- Carlos Rodon – (@NYY, BOS, LAA, @KCR, @CLE, CLE, @MIN)
- Rick Porcello – (@CHW, @ATL, TOR, @NYY, @CLE, NYY)
- Tyler Glasnow – (@ATL, @TOR, CLE, OAK, @TOR, NYY)
Just like every Monday I am refreshing the page anticipating the List….Then you create this masterpiece! Thank you!
Thanks for doing this! I dont know that properly stratifying teams is important but…. Identifying outlier offenses is worthwhile and park factors probably matter in extreme examples. The difference between above average and below probably doesnt matter one bit… But @nyy, @hou would matter just like Fla, and matters. I woukd think that this list should be a lot like last weeks but with movement for extreme matchup.
I do see Pax anywhere on the list. He’s supposed to be back end of the week. Where is he ranked and his estimated schedule? For a top-tier pitcher, I’m surprised he’s not listed.
He’s listed at 112, after Chris Sale. I wish he was included with the rest of the pitchers, considering that he’ll be back this Friday.
Which two do I drop in a standard roto – QS, K, ERA, WHIP?
Man much thanks and respect for putting in all the time to make this. Good stuff as always.
Thank you for all your work guys! Just don’t get how you bumped Castillo even higher in the list? How can I ever feel confident starting him and how is that useful for the playoffs?
I have a hard time buying that Pivetta is a top 40 SP ROS, despite his favorable schedule. He has recently been lit up by Toronto, the Mets, the Reds and Padres — not exactly juggernauts. Rose tinted shades perhaps?
LOL totally agree. Been saying this for half the season but if you’ve been following along at all Nick is playing favoritism here; as he loves him for some reason. Pivetta is done for ROS. He isn’t worth rostering this year and hasn’t been since at least the start of the second half. Maybe he turns it around next year. Certainly one to keep a close eye on.
Well, he’s a guy that is more like a Cherry Bomb than just done.
We saw him spin off 3 fantastic starts including an outing where he demolished the Red Sox, then the last two have been bad.
I know you’re in a shallower league, Ryan, which means going 3-for-5 hurts a lot more, but I wouldn’t go out there and say he’s “done” after two starts.
I have to ask though, you’ve heard plenty of my arguments as to why I like Pivetta, it’s not like I just say “he’s good” and call it a day.
What part of it do you disagree with mostly?
I don’t disagree that it depends on how deep your league is, and yes I am in a shallower league than probably most people play on average. But even then I still don’t see the value or hype here. Even after he consistently proves otherwise.
Sure, I rostered him a handful of starts back in June/July when he had a couple good starts stringed together. He’s pitched a few great games, but those few don’t warrant the hype and ranking he’s carried all year from the fantasy world. I know I’m not the only one with these sentiments either; look at the yahoo ownership at 42% and has dropped 4% ownership in the last 24 hours.
Every week you consistently rank him high and praise him even after bad performances saying it was just bad luck. It’s not a matter of being unlucky when you’ve pitched 130+ innings and still produce bad performances on a regular basis. At some point you have to concede and realize it’s just not there this season. This reminds me a lot of how you were gungho on Fulmer 1 or 2 seasons ago and kept hyping him up when he wasn’t performing at the level in which he should be and it took you all season to finally get off that train.
If you look at Pivetta’s stats they are pretty close in line with his last season stats. Which are not good. He’s certainly improved this season, and maybe next season is the one where the continual improvement shows that he is worth rostering all year.
At the same time, he was able to be a stud against the Red Sox right before it.
I don’t think two starts in a row is enough to give up for six more.
I’ve talked a lot about Pivetta this year and I totally understand if you don’t side with the rhetoric I make about Pivetta as a starter. Still, I wouldn’t call this rose tinted shades, it’s more that his upside comes out more than not + the other options behind him aren’t solid as stone, either.
Why not chase Pivetta’s upside over the guys behind him who have plenty of problems too?
Because for the season, he’s ranked (on Yahoo) behind Jordan Zimmerman and Mike Leake?
I’ve also been burned on Pivetta multiple times this season because I trust Nick’s judgment, but then again he did get me on the Severino AND Nola train at the beginning of last year which has worked out pretty well for me these last two seasons. Anyway just saying he isn’t just making things up or flipping a coin to decide who has elite potential.
You have your work cut out for you when the Dodgers start playing hit potato with their starters. Urias will probably get 1 start down the stretch, Buehler will head to the pen and Chicken Strip will join the rotation again at some point. Ah the fun of projections.
Yep, I just set it up as it currently is and look forward to changing it dramatically each week.
I love this. Thank you. I was surprised eovaldi didn’t drop more. I just don’t have the faith in him to use him anymore even against the white Sox plus he has nyy twice = punt for me. I think I’d rather own sabathia ros based on the schedule.
Fulmer is schedule to go @ KC this week not NYY
This is insane. Thanks! Is your ranking of E-Rod mostly from uncertainty, or are you baking in assumed performance when he returns?
Ah, it’s missed start(s) + schedule.
I placed all of the injured arms at the bottom so we can probably group them in a big “???” as they are all large estimations from me.
I think # 97 is missing from the list
Yes it is! Fixed, thanks!
The link over in the sidebar still points to the 8/20 list — is this intentional?
Ah, thanks! Fixed it.
Not sure what to do about the actual table though, might take a moment to get that sorted out.
Thanks Nick! Any faith in Chen with a nice schedule, or is he still an “avoid” if you can?
The list over on the right side of every page hasn’t been updated to match this list.