The List 8/27: All ROS Schedules For The Top 100 Starting Pitchers

What is happening. This week’s edition of The List is going to be completely different from what you’re used to and will be in this format through the end of the 2018 season. I’ll be ranking the Top 100 (and a little more) this week per usual, but I will be attaching their estimated ROS schedule as well, to give you better idea of who has easy or hard schedules through the rest of the season.

But before we get started, there is one elephant in the room that made this really really difficult:

How do we rank strength of schedule?

I can’t give you a good answer. Last 30 days wOBA means the Blue Jays are a near top tier offense with the Reds near the bottom. Season wOBA doesn’t tell the whole tale either with teams hurt, injured, etc. Shorter samples get weighed heavily by a few blowouts here and there and suddenly I have no way to spit out a tiered list to make this easy.

I need to have some system for this as I’m going to be going over every pitcher’s estimated ROS schedule that matters for your fantasy team and I can’t just eye it out because that will get carved up in an instant.

So I’ve elected to go the extra mile for y’all. Here is a quick table of my opponent rankings ROS, with an exception being made for @COL/COL as they are wildly different teams outside of the massively helpful Coors Field. I’ve sorted teams into five tiers of Elite, Strong, Average, Weak, and Poor. 

Elite Offense @COL HOU NYY BOS CLE CHC OAK
Strong Offense LAD ATL MIL SEA STL ARI
Average Offense WSH TEX PIT TBR LAA CIN
Weak Offense PHI MIN SFG COL TOR
Poor Offense SDP MIA NYM DET KCR CHW BAL

You probably have qualms with these assessments as I may have overlooked certain elements here and there, but I think we can all generally agree with these. If you don’t, make slight adjustments to the following List as the estimated schedules aren’t changing.

With that out of the way, I’m going to shoot out this massive table for you. There are a few things you have to keep in mind when reading this new edition of The List:

  • These schedules are not set in stone. Seriously, I tried my best to estimate this but man there is just so much up in the air
  • I will be updating this every Monday until the end of the season, just like The List normally operates.
  • The List is in order of who I’d want to own today for all future starts the rest of the way. I’m putting less weight on the final start of each pitcher as A) your H2H playoffs may be over and B) that final week is a mix of call-ups, setting up for playoffs, limiting innings, etc.
  • And while I am putting less weight on that final start, I am favoring pitchers with seven starts over six, like Jacob deGrom, Charlie Morton, Stephen Strasburg, etc. It might not come to fruition as mentioned in the previous point, but I still need to give them bonus points.
  • I did my best to guess return dates for injured pitchers. In the end, I don’t know and the guy who says he knows, yeah he doesn’t know.
Rank Pitcher 1st Start 2nd Start 3rd Start 4th Start 5th Start 6th Start 7th Start
1 Jacob Degrom @CHC @LAD PHI @BOS @PHI ATL MIA
2 Gerrit Cole OAK LAA @BOS @DET SEA @TOR @BAL
3 Aaron Nola WSH @MIA @NYM MIA @ATL @COL ATL
4 Max Scherzer @PHI STL CHC @ATL NYM MIA
5 Clayton Kershaw ARI NYM @CIN @STL SDP @SFG
6 Justin Verlander LAA MIN @DET ARI LAA @BAL
7 Carlos Carrasco MIN TBR @TOR @TBR CHW @CHW @KCR
8 Patrick Corbin @SFG @LAD ATL @COL CHC COL @SDP
9 Noah Syndergaard @CHC @SFG PHI MIA @PHI @WSH MIA
10 Corey Kluber TBR KCR @TBR DET BOS @KCR
11 Blake Snell @CLE BAL OAK @TEX NYY TOR
12 Zack Greinke @LAD ATL @COL @HOU COL @SDP
13 Luis Severino DET @OAK @MIN TOR BAL @TBR
14 Charlie Morton OAK LAA @BOS ARI SEA @TOR @BAL
15 Jack Flaherty PIT CIN @DET LAD @ATL MIL @CHC
16 David Price MIA @ATL HOU NYM @CLE BAL
17 Mike Clevinger MIN KCR @TOR DET BOS @CHW
18 Jameson Taillon @ATL CIN @STL KCR MIL @CIN
19 J.A. Happ DET @OAK @MIN BOS BAL @BOS
20 Mike Foltynewicz CHC BOS @ARI WSH PHI @NYM
21 Stephen Strasburg @PHI MIL CHC @PHI @MIA MIA @COL
22 Madison Bumgarner ARI @COL @MIL COL @STL SDP
23 Miles Mikolas PIT @WSH @DET LAD @ATL MIL
24 Walker Buehler @TEX ARI @COL @STL COL @ARI @SFG?
25 Jon Gray @LAA @SDP LAD ARI @LAD PHI WSH
26 Masahiro Tanaka CHW DET @SEA @MIN BOS @TBR @BOS
27 Zack Wheeler @SFG @LAD MIA @BOS @WSH ATL
28 Cole Hamels NYM @MIL @WSH CIN @ARI PIT STL
29 German Marquez @SDP SFG ARI @SFG @ARI PHI
30 Kyle Hendricks @PHI @WSH MIL @ARI @CHW STL
31 Kyle Freeland @LAA SFG LAD @SFG @LAD PHI WSH
32 Kyle Gibson @CLE @TEX KCR @KCR @DET DET CHW
33 Rick Porcello @CHW @ATL TOR @NYY @CLE NYY
34 Rich Hill ARI NYM @CIN @STL SDP @ARI
35 Jake Arrieta WSH @MIA WSH MIA @ATL @COL
36 Luis Castillo MIL @PIT SDP @CHC @MIA KCR
37 Alex Wood @TEX NYM @COL @STL COL @ARI
38 Nick Pivetta CHC @MIA WSH NYM @ATL @COL
39 Jose Berrios @TEX KCR NYY @DET @OAK CHW
40 Dallas Keuchel OAK MIN @BOS ARI LAA @TOR
41 Shane Bieber TBR @TOR @TBR CHW BOS @KCR
42 Robbie Ray @LAD SDP @COL @HOU COL LAD
43 Zack Godley @SFG SDP ATL @HOU CHC LAD
44 Carlos Rodon @NYY BOS LAA @KCR @CLE CLE @MIN
45 Nathan Eovaldi @CHW HOU TOR @NYY BAL NYY
46 Michael Kopech BOS DET @KCR @CLE CHC @MIN
47 Clay Buchholz @SFG @LAD ATL @COL CHC LAD @SDP
48 Joe Musgrove @STL CIN @STL @MIL MIL @CHC
49 Trevor Cahill @HOU NYY TEX @TBR MIN @SEA
50 Zach Eflin WSH CHC @NYM MIA NYM @COL ATL
51 Tyler Glasnow @ATL @TOR CLE OAK @TOR NYY
52 CC Sabathia CHW @OAK @SEA TOR BAL @TBR
53 Kevin Gausman PIT @ARI @SFG STL PHI @PHI
54 Mike Fiers SEA NYY @BAL LAA MIN @LAA
55 Tanner Roark MIL STL @PHI @ATL NYM @COL
56 Anibal Sanchez PIT BOS @SFG WSH PHI @NYM
57 Derek Holland NYM @MIL ATL @SDP SDP LAD
58 Dereck Rodriguez ARI @COL ATL COL @STL LAD
59 Dylan Bundy @KCR @TBR CHW TOR @BOS HOU
60 Jon Lester NYM @PHI @WSH MIL @ARI PIT STL
61 Lance Lynn CHW DET @SEA TOR BOS @TBR @BOS
62 Joey Lucchesi SEA @ARI @CIN TEX @LAD ARI
63 Michael Fulmer @NYY @CHW HOU @CLE KCR @MIN
64 Andrew Heaney @HOU @TEX TEX SEA @HOU TEX
65 Chris Archer @ATL MIA @STL KCR @CHC @CIN
66 Vince Velasquez CHC @NYM WSH NYM @ATL ATL
67 Sean Newcomb TBR BOS @ARI WSH STL @NYM @PHI
68 Junior Guerra @CIN @WSH SFG PIT CIN @STL
69 Jose Quintana @PHI @MIL MIL CIN @CHW PIT
70 Jhoulys Chacin @WSH CHC @CHC CIN @PIT DET
71 Hyun-Jin Ryu ARI @COL @CIN COL SDP @SFG
72 Matt Harvey MIL @PIT SDP @CHC @MIL KCR
73 Matthew Boyd @KCR @CHW STL @CLE KCR @MIN
74 Tyler Anderson @SDP LAD ARI @LAD @ARI WSH
75 Mike Minor LAD LAA @LAA @SDP SEA @SEA
76 Freddy Peralta @CIN CHC SFG PIT @PIT @STL
77 Steven Matz @SFG PHI MIA @PHI @WSH MIA
78 Pablo Lopez TOR @PIT @NYM WSH @WSH @NYM
79 Jakob Junis DET @CLE @MIN MIN @PIT @CIN CLE
80 Trevor Richards @BOS PHI @NYM @PHI CIN @WSH
81 Jaime Barria @HOU @TEX TEX SEA @HOU OAK
82 Gio Gonzalez @PHI STL CHC @ATL NYM MIA
83 Trevor Williams @STL CIN MIA @MIL MIL @CHC
84 Danny Duffy DET @CLE CHW MIN @DET @CIN
85 Sam Gaviglio @BAL @MIA CLE @BOS @BAL TBR @TBR
86 Anthony Desclafani MIL @STL SDP LAD @MIL @MIA PIT
87 Jake Odorizzi @CLE @HOU NYY @KCR @OAK DET
88 Austin Gomber CIN @WSH PIT LAD SFG @CHC
89 Wei-Yin Chen TOR @PIT @NYM WSH CIN @NYM
90 Jacob Nix SEA COL @CIN TEX @LAD @SFG
91 Chase Anderson @WSH SFG @CHC CIN @STL DET
92 Edwin Jackson @HOU SEA TEX @TBR LAA @SEA
93 Lucas Giolito BOS DET @KCR @BAL CHC @MIN
94 Mike Leake @OAK? NYY? @LAA? @HOU? OAK? TEX?
95 Marco Gonzales @SDP BAL NYY @LAA @TEX OAK
96 Aaron Sanchez @MIA TBR @BOS @NYY TBR HOU
97 Daniel Poncedeleon CIN @DET PIT @ATL SFG @CHC
98 Jose Urena @BOS PHI @PIT @PHI CIN @WSH
99 Wade Leblanc @OAK BAL SDP @HOU @TEX TEX
100 Julio Teheran TBR PIT @ARI @SFG STL PHI @PHI
101 Ivan Nova @STL @ATL MIA @MIL KCR @CHC @CIN
102 Reynaldo Lopez @NYY DET LAA @BAL CHC CLE
103 Brian Johnson MIA @CHW HOU NYM @NYY BAL
104 Andrew Suarez NYM @COL ATL @SDP @STL LAD
105 John Gant PIT @WSH PIT LAD SFG MIL
106 Alex Cobb TOR @SEA OAK CHW @NYY HOU
107 Brett Anderson @HOU SEA TEX @BAL LAA @SEA @LAA
108 Felix Pena @HOU @CHW TEX @OAK @HOU OAK
109 Homer Bailey @STL @PIT LAD @CHC @MIA PIT
110 Chris Sale TOR? NYM? @CLE? NYY?
111 James Paxton @OAK? NYY? @LAA? @HOU? OAK?
112 Eduardo Rodriguez @CWS? HOU? TOR @NYY? BAL? NYY?
113 Tyler Skaggs @OAK? @HOU? OAK?
114 Sean Manaea @BAL? @TBR? MIN? @LAA?
115 Marcus Stroman CLE? @NYY? @BAL? HOU? TBR?

Notes

  • There is a ton to talk about and I’m going save the time of getting this out sooner instead of detailing multiple pitchers in these notes. Looking forward to diving into all this info with everyone in the comments and on Reddit.

8 pitchers with favorable ROS schedules

8 pitchers with poor ROS schedules

Nick Pollack

Founder of PitcherList.com. Rotographs and Washington Post contributor and has worked with CBS Sports, Grantland, and SB Nation. Former pitching coach and Brandeis alum.

sdf

Comments


TheKraken

Thanks for doing this! I dont know that properly stratifying teams is important but…. Identifying outlier offenses is worthwhile and park factors probably matter in extreme examples. The difference between above average and below probably doesnt matter one bit… But @nyy, @hou would matter just like Fla, and matters. I woukd think that this list should be a lot like last weeks but with movement for extreme matchup.

Let’s Play Two

I do see Pax anywhere on the list. He’s supposed to be back end of the week. Where is he ranked and his estimated schedule? For a top-tier pitcher, I’m surprised he’s not listed.

Adrian

He’s listed at 112, after Chris Sale. I wish he was included with the rest of the pitchers, considering that he’ll be back this Friday.

cbd

Thank you for all your work guys! Just don’t get how you bumped Castillo even higher in the list? How can I ever feel confident starting him and how is that useful for the playoffs?

Jim

I have a hard time buying that Pivetta is a top 40 SP ROS, despite his favorable schedule. He has recently been lit up by Toronto, the Mets, the Reds and Padres — not exactly juggernauts. Rose tinted shades perhaps?

Ryan Hicks

LOL totally agree. Been saying this for half the season but if you’ve been following along at all Nick is playing favoritism here; as he loves him for some reason. Pivetta is done for ROS. He isn’t worth rostering this year and hasn’t been since at least the start of the second half. Maybe he turns it around next year. Certainly one to keep a close eye on.

Nick Pollack

Well, he’s a guy that is more like a Cherry Bomb than just done.

We saw him spin off 3 fantastic starts including an outing where he demolished the Red Sox, then the last two have been bad.

I know you’re in a shallower league, Ryan, which means going 3-for-5 hurts a lot more, but I wouldn’t go out there and say he’s “done” after two starts.

I have to ask though, you’ve heard plenty of my arguments as to why I like Pivetta, it’s not like I just say “he’s good” and call it a day.

What part of it do you disagree with mostly?

Ryan Hicks

I don’t disagree that it depends on how deep your league is, and yes I am in a shallower league than probably most people play on average. But even then I still don’t see the value or hype here. Even after he consistently proves otherwise.

Sure, I rostered him a handful of starts back in June/July when he had a couple good starts stringed together. He’s pitched a few great games, but those few don’t warrant the hype and ranking he’s carried all year from the fantasy world. I know I’m not the only one with these sentiments either; look at the yahoo ownership at 42% and has dropped 4% ownership in the last 24 hours.

Every week you consistently rank him high and praise him even after bad performances saying it was just bad luck. It’s not a matter of being unlucky when you’ve pitched 130+ innings and still produce bad performances on a regular basis. At some point you have to concede and realize it’s just not there this season. This reminds me a lot of how you were gungho on Fulmer 1 or 2 seasons ago and kept hyping him up when he wasn’t performing at the level in which he should be and it took you all season to finally get off that train.

If you look at Pivetta’s stats they are pretty close in line with his last season stats. Which are not good. He’s certainly improved this season, and maybe next season is the one where the continual improvement shows that he is worth rostering all year.

Nick Pollack

At the same time, he was able to be a stud against the Red Sox right before it.

I don’t think two starts in a row is enough to give up for six more.

I’ve talked a lot about Pivetta this year and I totally understand if you don’t side with the rhetoric I make about Pivetta as a starter. Still, I wouldn’t call this rose tinted shades, it’s more that his upside comes out more than not + the other options behind him aren’t solid as stone, either.

Why not chase Pivetta’s upside over the guys behind him who have plenty of problems too?

Grind Crunch

I’ve also been burned on Pivetta multiple times this season because I trust Nick’s judgment, but then again he did get me on the Severino AND Nola train at the beginning of last year which has worked out pretty well for me these last two seasons. Anyway just saying he isn’t just making things up or flipping a coin to decide who has elite potential.

Frankie

You have your work cut out for you when the Dodgers start playing hit potato with their starters. Urias will probably get 1 start down the stretch, Buehler will head to the pen and Chicken Strip will join the rotation again at some point. Ah the fun of projections.

Bob

I love this. Thank you. I was surprised eovaldi didn’t drop more. I just don’t have the faith in him to use him anymore even against the white Sox plus he has nyy twice = punt for me. I think I’d rather own sabathia ros based on the schedule.

ben

This is insane. Thanks! Is your ranking of E-Rod mostly from uncertainty, or are you baking in assumed performance when he returns?

Nick Pollack

I placed all of the injured arms at the bottom so we can probably group them in a big “???” as they are all large estimations from me.

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