The List 6/27: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2022 – Week 12

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to remove all the labels that I struggle to maintain through the season to instead give each player just one label at a time. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

 

 

I made a decision this year: I’ve removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” I hope it helps!

One last point about that – often times pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why “Still ILL” exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, or if you want a primer on most of these pitchers, you can check out my 40,000 words from the pre-season via my Top 224 Starting Pitchers for 2022 from February. Both will help you get a grasp of my general thoughts on most of these guys (especially the roundup!) as I simply can’t detail everything about 100 pitchers in these notes each week.

 

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
• Added: Joe Musgrove (7), Brandon Woodruff (24)
• Removed: Jack Flaherty (31), Andrew Heaney (49)
• Net Gain Inside Top 60: (Neutral)

 

• The top tier is no different this week because all of them are dope and make us feel dope for rostering them.
• The second tier doesn’t change, either, save for the return of Joe Musgrove. Don’t be harsh on him for his return from the COVID-IL, he’s sure to be the Top 10 arm moving forward.

 

• Not a whole lot of change in Tier 3 either – remember, the addition of Musgrove grants the -1 for everyone after #8.
• The biggest shift is Pablo López to the end of the tier as we welcome Logan Webb to the AGA crowd. He’s been much improved with his slider and changeup and the man deserves all the love right now.

 

• The fourth tier has been condensed, containing all the arms I feel are on the verge of earning their AGA labels. I’m awfully tempted to give it to both Julio Urías and Dylan Cease as they’ve each collected whiffs with ease lately. One more powerful outing from both will bring them into the third tier next week.
• Let’s welcome back Brandon Woodruff to The List from his IL stint. I know this is lower than we expected him to be (I had him 1-10 in the injured table), but the news of his Raynaud’s disease has me more concerned than before + we’ve seen other injured starters coming back and needing extra time to get back to full strength. It leads to Woodruff losing his AGA tag and needing to prove himself before rising back into the Top 15.

 

• Please ignore the drops for Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas. It’s only because of Musgrove and Cease.
• I wonder if Robbie Ray can sustain this success with his new addition of sinkers into his pitch mix. It may make him a bit more efficient while he keeps getting four-seamer whiffs, or it may open the door to fewer strikeouts and a higher WHIP. We’ll see.

 

• Tier 5 also contains potential AGA names, but they have a bit more work to do. Shane Baz and Charlie Morton are both looking stellar and could climb up The List more each week for a good while. I’m excited to watch both across the next month.
• I gave a small dip to Lance Lynn despite the high whiff game against the Orioles. His fastball velocity is still down and he hasn’t looked like the steady rock he’s been for a few years quite yet.

 

• I’m not exactly sure where to place Lucas Giolito right now. On one hand, I do believe he’s destined to recover and look like a Top 20 arm once again, on the other, he’s been ghastly across his last five, actively destroying your fantasy teams. I elected to place him at the start of Tier 6, recognizing the ceiling and floor, and if you want him higher/lower, I completely understand. He’s incredibly hard to rank at the moment.
• Nestor Cortes got a sizeable dip this week. It’s not that I don’t believe Cortes to be a solid arm for your squad, but his May success seems more like an anomaly than something to anticipate for the future.

 

• It’s been a bit of a freefall for Tarik Skubal lately, though I don’t anticipate him struggling for much longer. His changeup and slider have each shown plus ability, while his fastballs are better than they have been. This may be a good buy-low moment.
• I can’t say that I’m loving how Kyle Wright has looked after his stellar April. His command has been spotty and a pair of difficult matchups ahead against the Phils and Cardinals could show his ugly side. I’d consider selling, but I do recognize the chance for Wright to recover.

 

• Since coming off the COVID-IL, Joe Ryan hasn’t been himself. I imagine more time gets him back to the place we want him to be, but for the time being, he has to take a hit inside Tier 6.
• In tier 7, Triston McKenzie leads to way. It was difficult to place Triston as he faces the Twins and Yankees next – not a fun time whatsoever. However, I think his overall repertoire speaks to a solid SP #4 throughout the summer, making him a must-hold through the gauntlet.

 

• Joining Triston are the “Vargas Rule” kings, Nick Pivetta and Martín Pérez, who cannot be stopped. I don’t believe their success will continue far into the second half, but hot dang you best be running with them now.
• I gave a significant boost to Jeffrey Springs, who showcased his best slider and changeup in his last outing. He’s barely stumbled since getting the starting gig for the Rays and while his IPS are a bit capped, he’s a solid play each start.

 

• I know what you’re going to say. You dropped Spencer Strider after his dominance against the Dodgers?! Don’t forget about his start against the Giants just before that, where he failed to consistently throw strikes with both his four-seamer and slider. He’s a “Cherry Bomb” at the moment with his inconsistent control and as we get more confident in his lack of volatility, he’ll rise up the ranks.
• I did give raises to both Jon Gray and Cristian Javier this week. Gray has been sitting 96 mph with his heater across his last three starts, paired with his best slider as well. He looks primed for a legit run through the rest of the season if he can keep this up.

 

• As for Cristian Javier, he fanned 13 Yankees over the weekend and we can only hope he’s able to replicate his four-seamer command moving forward. His WHIP has been a detriment across the previous four outings (his breakers have failed to find the zone frequently) but this outing gives all kinds of hope.
• Oh José Berríos. I kept shifting you around The List today and ultimately landed here at #52 – a place that I believe weighs both the damage you’ve done to fantasy managers and recognizes your history as a solid SP #2/#3. His nickname is The Great Undulater after all, and you can bet your bottom dollar he’ll be better than 14 ER across his last two starts. How much better? That’s hard to tell.

 

• Joining Berríos in the eighth tier is Sonny Gray, who looked far from polished in his return from the IL. I may ultimately be a touch low on Gray, but I’m not loving his low O-Swing on his curveball & low strike rate on his slider, which ultimately create more volatility start-to-start. Will he have his breakers moving forward? It’s a bit hazier than those in Tier 7 to me.

 

• It was a decent rebound for MacKenzie Gore against the Phillies, but not quite the outing we wanted to see from his secondaries. I imagine this is a valley than a destined tumble from dominance, so stick with him moving forward.
• Boy has it been difficult to latch onto Michael Kopech this season. Last week, he was removed early with a knee injury, then made two consecutive starts with depreciated velocity, albeit Friday’s was a bit better than his outing against the Astros. I want to see the 96/97 mph Kopech with breakers landing for strikes, but it’s unclear if that was a momentary peak or a possible future plateau.

 

• Look at you, reading the notes. You rock. As a token of my thanks, here’s a massive discount on yearly PL+ – Use code ILOVETHENOTES to get PL+ Yearly at $70, 25% off the normal $96 price. See you in the Discord!

 

• Okay, okay, Miles Mikolas is still cruising (thanks Cardinals defense…?) and he’s risen nine spots because of it. He’s pitching above his head, but we’re at the point that the SP landscape doesn’t demand you pick up someone else instead.
• I gave a massive bump to Josiah Gray as he shifted his approach to feature sub 30% four-seamers. You love to see it and I hope it spells more success with sliders and curveballs in the future. Keep in mind, though, this may have just been a single start where he could command the breakers and that feel may dissipate in the future.

 

• I only gave a three-point drop to Eric Lauer despite allowing 5 ER in his last start. Why? Well, his four-seamer velocity rocketed back up to 94 mph after sitting sub 93 for three straight starts. It’s one part of the equation, and with his breakers improving, the other is commanding the heater higher in the zone. If he can gain that skill back, we’re in business once again.
• Yes, that’s a little tumble for Tyler Anderson. Not a major one, but I don’t see him as a major push-the-needle arm for the second-half of the season.

 

• In the tenth tier, Graham Ashcraft surges forward, but since we’re past the Top 55 or so, jumps and falls are going to be more aggressive now – these are arms that are rotating between your roster and the wire. As for Graham, his cutter was phenomenal as he earned eight punchouts and it could spell more success in the future.
• I also gave a dip to Carlos Carrasco, even if his outing was against the Astros. I wouldn’t say he deserved a -10 drop, but it’s just how the landscape shifted this week. He didn’t shift my perspective of him a whole lot.

 

• To begin the eleventh tier, I slotted José Urquidy after two strong outings. I’m a little skeptical he can maintain it given the heavy reliance on four-seamers as his secondaries have failed to replicate their previous success, but his solid run given the track record demands his spot at #70.
• What are you doing with Alex Cobb? He wasn’t all too impressive in his second start back and we’re all waiting for the bad luck to start going his way. Dates with the White Sox + Diamondbacks ahead should outline a step forward, but it’s riskier than I’d like.

 

• The struggles for Blake Snell continue and it’s awfully hard to expect it to turn around any time soon. There will be a moment it does, but the loss of a roster spot in the meantime simply isn’t worth it right now.
• The 12th tier has some intrigue, with Mitch Keller recently surviving with a new sinker-focused approach and Keegan Thompson maintaining success for the Cubs. I wouldn’t be jumping to the wire to grab either one, but hey, it could work.

 

• New to The List this week are David Peterson and Devin Smeltzer. Now that we’re outside the Top 80, I look at possible streams for the week and Peterson flexing a strong slider twice in a row getting matched up against the Rangers seems like a solid gamble to me.
• Meanwhile, Smeltzer is doing his best to earn a “Toby” label and gets the Guardians and Orioles next. That could provide dividends for trusting managers.

 

• In the same tier, I gave 10 point dips to both Trevor Rogers and Paul Blackburn. Rogers wasn’t able to replicate the slider + changeup whiff-heavy outing against the Mets, while Blackburn has a difficult start against the Yankees on Monday and he isn’t someone I’d consider a stash through a bench-worthy outing.
• I also added Jackson Tetreault to this week. He sits 95 mph on his heater and has been able to survive deep into games. Do I think this is the next hot thing? Absolutely not, but hey, maybe he’s on a good enough roll to help now against the Marlins.

 

 

• I’ve added Tyler Wells to The List, who has put up some startling numbers so far as a starter. I don’t believe you should run out and get him – he gets the Mariners on Monday and the Twins after that – but I recognize that he could be turning into a “Vargas Rule”. He really doesn’t do enough across his repertoire to deserve more love – his four-seamer allows nearly 50% Hard Contact. It’s atrocious.
• The 13th tier is all your boring options, save for Brady Singer. He’s a flat-out “Cherry Bomb” who is as much of a coin-flip as any. At least his highs are a bit more worth it than someone like Dakota Hudson.

 

• In the final tier, Mitch White and Kris Bubic join The List. White has a stellar breaking ball, but his four-seamer is highly susceptible to punishment. Meanwhile, Bubic just looked as good as I’ve seen him, sporting a 92 mph heater (not 90/91!). I hope it can continue across two good matchups this week.
• The final two entrants this week are Ross Stripling and José Quintana. Stripling has a poor matchup against the Sawx, but could be worth it for the Rays after. Quintana just had the best command I’ve ever seen from him (perfect elevated four-seamers) as he axed his sinker from his approach. It could spell a fun run ahead.

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Corbin BurnesT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Shane McClanahan	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace	-
5	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace	-
6	Justin Verlander T2	Aces Gonna Ace	-
7	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-
8	Joe Musgrove	Aces Gonna Ace	+UR
9	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
10	Alek Manoah	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
11	Luis Severino T3	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
12	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
13	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
14	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
15	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	-1
16	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+1
17	Logan Webb	Aces Gonna Ace	+5
18	Pablo López	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
19	Julio Urías T4	Ace Potential	-1
20	Dylan Cease	Ace Potential	+1
21	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential	-2
22	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential	-2
23	Robbie Ray	Ace Potential	-
24	Brandon Woodruff	Ace Potential	+UR
25	Shane Baz T5	Ace Potential	+8
26	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential	+1
27	Yu Darvish	Ace Potential	+1
28	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential	+7
29	Lance Lynn	Ace Potential	-3
30	Luis Castillo	Ace Potential	-1
31	Tony Gonsolin	Ace Potential	+3
32	Lucas Giolito T6	Ace Potential	-17
33	Nestor Cortes	Ace Potential	-9
34	Kyle Wright	Ace Potential	-4
35	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	+2
36	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential	-11
37	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential	+1
38	Framber Valdez	Quality Starts	+1
39	Patrick Sandoval	Ace Potential	+2
40	Luis Garcia	Strikeout Upside	+2
41	Joe Ryan	Ace Potential	-5
42	Jordan Montgomery	Ratio Focused	-2
43	Mike Clevinger	Ace Potential	+1
44	Triston McKenzie T7	Strikeout Upside	-1
45	George Kirby	Quality Starts	+3
46	Nick Pivetta	Strikeout Upside	+4
47	Martín Pérez	Quality Starts	+7
48	Jeffrey Springs	Strikeout Upside	+9
49	Spencer Strider	Ace Potential	-3
50	Jon Gray	Strikeout Upside	+5
51	Cristian Javier	Strikeout Upside	+8
52	José Berríos T8	Cherry Bomb	-20
53	Sonny Gray	Strikeout Upside	-8
54	MacKenzie Gore	Ace Potential	-7
55	Michael Kopech	Ace Potential	-4
56	Miles Mikolas T9	Quality Starts	+9
57	Adam Wainwright	Quality Starts	-1
58	Tyler Anderson	Quality Starts	-6
59	Tyler Mahle	Cherry Bomb	+2
60	Hunter Greene	Cherry Bomb	+3
61	Eric Lauer	Strikeout Upside	-3
62	Josiah Gray	Cherry Bomb	+20
63	Carlos Carrasco T10	Quality Starts	-10
64	Noah Syndergaard	Toby	+2
65	Roansy Contreras	Streaming Option	-5
66	Jameson Taillon	Toby	-2
67	Taijuan Walker	Quality Starts	+1
68	Corey Kluber	Quality Starts	+3
69	Graham Ashcraft	Streaming Option	+15
70	José Urquidy T11	Toby	+23
71	Alex Cobb	Cherry Bomb	-2
72	Blake Snell	Cherry Bomb	-10
73	Merrill Kelly	Quality Starts	-6
74	Marco Gonzales	Quality Starts	+3
75	Ian Anderson	Cherry Bomb	-5
76	Alex Wood	Cherry Bomb	-4
77	Michael Lorenzen	Streaming Option	-4
78	Kyle Gibson	Toby	-
79	Cal Quantrill	Toby	-3
80	Mitch Keller T12	Streaming Option	+5
81	David Peterson	Streaming Option	+UR
82	Keegan Thompson	Streaming Option	+18
83	Tyler Wells	Streaming Option	+UR
84	Devin Smeltzer	Streaming Option	+UR
85	Trevor Rogers	Stash Option	-11
86	Paul Blackburn	Toby	-11
87	Michael Wacha	Streaming Option	+8
88	Jackson Tetreault	Streaming Option	+UR
89	Zack Greinke T13	Streaming Option	+7
90	Chris Flexen	Toby	-2
91	Johnny Cueto	Streaming Option	-2
92	Brady Singer	Cherry Bomb	-12
93	Zach Plesac	Streaming Option	+1
94	Aaron Civale T14	Toby	+3
95	Rich Hill	Streaming Option	-4
96	Mitch White	Streaming Option	+UR
97	Kris Bubic	Streaming Option	+UR
98	Andre Pallante	Streaming Option	+1
99	Ross Stripling	Streaming Option	+UR
100	José Quintana	Streaming Option	+UR

 

Photo by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)