Every day of the 2022 baseball season, I’ll be looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.
There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Twitch.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 10am – 12pm ET. If you have questions about these ranks, please ask during the morning Twitch AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.
There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind (Updated 9/10):
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man. This includes “if I have them rostered, I’m starting them” pitchers.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good-not-elite pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm. These pitchers have a 50% or greater chance of performing well in my view.
Questionable Start – Think of this tier as “I don’t want to start these pitchers in a vacuum, but you could do worse.” Streamers found in this tier are not pitchers I’m targeting and are only if you are in dire need of one. To play it safe with streaming, just start the Probably Start streamers.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it. Seriously, these pitchers have a very slim chance of success or sometimes none at all.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results throughout the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. Those in Yellow in the third tier and should be okay if you’re searching for something on a given day, but I don’t recommend streaming unless you’re in need. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses:
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it’s a great general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Alright, let’s get to it.
2022 Streamer Record: 94-68
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Not much to say about the top tier (shocking), though make sure you’re starting Yu Darvish instead Coors. I know it’s Coors, but Darvish isn’t affected by opponent like others are. Start the dang man.
- Joe Ryan is also set up to face the Angels and while he isn’t on the same AGA level as nearly everyone else here, he should be started everywhere against the Angels.
- The second tier is a lowly one, occupied only by Merrill Kelly against the Giants. You could even argue he’s an auto-start given how likely you are to start him here. I think it says more about the third tier of options more than anything.
- Speaking of which, it’s a large mess of names in the third tier. Domingo Germán and Reid Detmers lead the way and could arguably be second tier names…but they face tough teams and I personally would prefer not to chance this if I could. The ceilings aren’t as high as we’d like for their risks.
- The streaming pick of the day is Wade Miley against the Pirates, even after his massive disappointment against the Marlins earlier this week. Is it a lock? Nope. Is it best to brush off a two-inning sample that included an error and start a Toby against a bad offense among all these meh options? Yep!
- After Miley, there’s a series of arms who could be ranked higher if it weren’t for some tough opponents – Jordan Montgomery, Drew Rasmussen, and kinda Cal Quantrill…? I’d hold back on all of them – Quantrill gets a nod for QS leagues.
- Then you have some young arms who could make it work against weak lineups. Davis Martin gets the Tigers and could have his slider cooking, while Johan Oviedo’s upper 90s velocity + a volatile breaker could excel against the Cubs.
- I’d avoid Bailey Falter and Nick Pivetta in most cases, even if Falter has been surprisingly great over the last month. Atlanta is tough. As for Pivetta, he’s destined to allow a historic HR to Judge, so let’s avoid that.
- Don’t overlook Erick Fedde against the Marlins if you need a desperate dart throw – he has a history of succeeding against them despite all his struggles otherwise.
- And hey, why not. Maybe Glenn Otto has his slider and curve against the Guardians. I’ve seen crazier things.
I don’t think Jakob Junis is doing enough with his arsenal at the moment to start him against a surprisingly decent Arizona offense.
- Graham Ashcraft is returning from the IL in a clear Still ILL scenario as he was a questionable arm even when stretched out and healthy.
- Updates: The Giants are going with Alex Cobb instead of Jakob Junis and he jumps into the second tier. He survived the Dodgers and should be good to go.
- Tyler Wells is out for the rest of the year, forcing the Orioles to start Mike Baumann instead. You don’t want to chase that.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- The top tier gains Cristian Javier as it looks like the Astros are letting him fly Sunday. Make sure he’s in your lineup.
- I’ve elevated Nick Lodolo to the top tier since Monday’s rank as I have all the faith in Lodolo’s strikeout ability moving forward. Start him.
- I demoted Shane McClanahan to the second tier after he left his last start with neck spasms. He may be limited or not at his peak with the hindrance.
- You have two legit streaming options on Sunday – Luis Ortiz and Drey Jameson. Start. Them. BOTH. Ortiz sports upper 90s + a wicked slider and Jameson…has the same. They face two weak offenses and could be week winners. Note: There’s a chance it’s Zach Davies instead of Jameson and rain could be a factor for Ortiz.
- The third tier features Aaron Civale in his second start back from the IL against the Rangers. I’m cool with it as he should be good for 80+ pitches, and I hope the curve shows up more than 20% of the time.
- The final three arms here could be of interest. Adrian Sampson may coast through six frames against a weak Pirates crew, Aníbal Sánchez gets the Marlins a second time and it could be more of the same, and Brayan Bello has strikeout upside with his slider & changeup if you’re in dire need.
- Ohhhh the bottom tier. Adam Wainwright has looked fatigued and gets the Dodgers – avoid that one.
- His opponent looks to be Michael Grove, a starter I didn’t expect to see again for the Dodgers. He has a shot to go five strong, but it’s too risky.
- Don’t go after Freddy Peralta in his return from the IL as he’ll go two innings – three max. There’s a chance Aaron Ashby cleans up after and that may be a sneaky play for a Win against the Reds.
- The other options about Peralta are dart throws – José Suarez and Kyle Gibson are volatile arms against strong lineups, while I heavily question the chance Dylan Bundy or Jakob Junis take full advantage of their matchups.
Featured Image by Drew Wheeler (@drewisokay on Twitter)