Every day of the 2022 baseball season, I’ll be looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.
There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Twitch.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 9am – 11am ET. If you have questions about these ranks, please ask during the morning Twitch AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.
There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results throughout the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. The most common are those in Yellow in the third tier and should be decent if you’re searching for something on a given day. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses. Dave Swan does an incredible job of showcasing future SP matchups every 2-3 weeks in this article, and I’ve elected to use his offense ranks to share with all of you here:
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it’s a great general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Alright, let’s get to it.
2022 Streamer Record: 44-34
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- The top tier is a bit more contentious than usual on Monday. Kevin Gausman hasn’t been as consistent as we’d like recently and will get a tough matchup against the Red Sox. He was much improved last start, though, and I expect him to soar.
- You start Martín Pérez and don’t think about it. Just do the dang thing.
- In the second tier, we have a trio of solid pitchers against middling lineups, all coming off disappointing outings. Adam Wainwright leads the way against the Marlins, a team he’s feasted on over the years.
- Behind him is Jordan Montgomery, who will hopefully find quality strikes with his sinker and cruise to a victory against the Athletics. Then there’s Sonny Gray, who was inefficient last time out and hopefully can find his breakers against a volatile Guardians offense.
- In the third tier, more questions arise with Lucas Giolito, Noah Syndergaard, and Triston McKenzie. Giolito has been atrocious over his last five outings and I completely understand those who don’t want to chance this to begin their week. At the same time, he has a TIARA and I believe he’ll break through this sooner rather than later, while the Angels are far from the most dangerous offense around.
- It’s hard to decide what to do with Noah Syndergaard and Triston McKenzie. With Thor, he’s been more of a Toby than a legit SP #3, making a start against an improved White Sox crew a bit worrisome. As for McKenzie, he faces the mighty Twins and needs to be on his best self to avoid punishment.
- I can’t say I’m too encouraged by the options for the streaming pick of the day and it was a difficult decision between Kris Bubic and Tyler Wells. Last start was the best I’ve seen Bubic in a long time, sitting 92 mph with an excellent changeup. If he can repeat that against the pedestrian Rangers offense, this could be the start of something special.
- As for Tyler Wells, I simply don’t like chasing the potential of six frames at the cost of middling ratios and few strikeouts. I’d rather take the shot on Bubic turning into something more legit than limping with Wells.
- The bottom tier begins with three names who should be higher up but have been dealt a terrible hand. Tyler Anderson has to head to Coors, Michael Wacha faces the elite Toronto offense, and Paul Blackburn will have to endure the powerful Yankee bats (even if they just got no-hit). Take the chance if you want, the odds are not in their favor.
- The final three arms are nothing to get excited for, yes, including Erick Fedde against the Pirates. Remember kids, Don’t Trust The Feddes.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- The top tier is a bit thinner than you’d expect with the names going on Tuesday, though Carlos Rodón, Zack Wheeler, and Robbie Ray are the easy #1-3 starters for the day. I’m excited to see what they can do.
- The final three are a step down, each without an AGA label. Hopefully the wind doesn’t affect Luis Castillo, I’m crossing my fingers for Zach Gallen to have at least three of his pitches working, and Shane Baz to continue his resurgence off the IL against the Brewers.
- In the second tier, Charlie Morton, Clayton Kershaw, and Frankie Montas would be in the top tier if it weren’t for their tough opponents. Morton has been hot as anything and there is an argument that a Bryce Harper–less Phillies offense moves him into tier 1. Kershaw is wonderful, but Coors is Coors, and Montas has to deal with the Yankees…who just showcased a struggling offense over the weekend.
- Normally Brandon Woodruff would be much higher in these ranks, but he’s coming back from the IL and I simply don’t know what we’re going to see from him out of the gate.
- I’m a fan of starting both Jon Gray and Sean Manaea on Tuesday against a pair of weak offenses. Both pitchers can present Tier 1 upside against poor teams as long as they have their secondaries on point – or maybe just their best fastballs are enough.
- Framber Valdez and Tarik Skubal are a bit harder to trust. Valdez has been tested and survived as of late, though the Mets will provide a decent challenge. Skubal has been fading across June and I can see some wanting him in the third tier. I personally believe it’s a matter of time for Skubal to begin trending back up, making the reward worth the risk here.
- The third tier begins with Johnny Cueto, who becomes my streaming pick of the day despite letting us down last time out. He’s capable of six frames and the Angels aren’t the scariest crew in town.
- There are a few others to consider as well. Keegan Thompson hosts the Reds and if the wind is coming in, he could provide quality innings. Devin Smeltzer is trying to be a Toby and could repeat his performance against the Guardians. Dakota Hudson is a classic coin flip, and Jonathan Heasley has proven there’s a chance to succeed against a mediocre Rangers offense.
- Do you want to start Carlos Carrasco against the Astros? I know he’s proven his worth for many 12-teamers, but the floor is awfully low against the Houston bats and it could mess up your week…or you could run away with a Win and seven strikeouts in your pocket.
- In the bottom tier, José Quintana just featured his best command and could repeat it against the Nationals. His floor is awfully concerning, though, and I’d rather not chase it.
- The Yankees are calling up JP Sears to give their starters a breather on Tuesday and there is intrigue here against the Athletics. However, he isn’t stretched out past 20 batters in the minors where he fanned just three total in his last two games and he’s likely capped around five frames. It seems like it’s not quite enough to go after.
- There’s also the return of Josh Winder for the Twins, who had a pair of outings earlier this year of shutout ball & 15 strikeouts. Still, he’s not stretched out and I hate the likelihood he’s not his best self.
Featured Image by Drew Wheeler (@drewisokay on Twitter)