Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 9 am-11 am ET.
Tyler Mahle (MIN) @ MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 83 pitches.
Look, I was wrong about Tyler Mahle and I’m so happy to be. Mahle’s four-seamer sat just under 94 mph and he performed like his 2021 self across 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 83 pitches and a Win against the Marlins. The heater returned a fantastic 35% CSW, the splitter was solid at the bottom of the zone, and the slider…well he’s still working on that one, but at least it returned a 65% strike rate.
This is all to say Mahle looked totally fine and that’s so dang wonderful. If the shoulder issues are truly behind him, he could push over 150 frames of a strikeout rate north of 25%, a fair amount of Wins for the Twins, and ratios that won’t upset you. I really hope this wasn’t a flash in the pan, I really don’t. Baseball needs more stories of players returning from injury and reclaiming their former ability.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 85 pitches.
I really under-ranked Peralta this pre-season, didn’t I. Nick, you still don’t know if the shoulder is going to hold up throughout the year. He could toss 80 innings! Yeah yeah yeah, but his quality per inning is so good! His heater was also up a tick and creating tough at-bats constantly, though the slider still has some work at just a 57% strike rate. He’s close, just not quite there yet. He has a tough time against the Cards and Padres, but who cares, start him. He looks great.
Anthony DeSclafani (SF) @ CWS (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 73 pitches.
So this was weird. Tony Disco’s slider looked fantastic (thanks Chicago camera angle!) with the plan to piggyback with Sean Manaea. However, he was able to cruise through six at sub-75 pitches – go figure – with Manaea showing up for just two innings in the end. Manaea’s heater was as advertised, sitting four ticks higher than last year (maybe amped in relief, but even if it’s 94 mph in the end, that’s lovely), but sadly he’s still failing to do damage with his changeup and slider. For everyone who’s confused about what this means moving forward, I imagine it’s a six-man rotation. Why not? Cobb, Manaea, DeSclafani, Stripling, Wood, and Webb all have injury histories and none of them are pitching poorly enough to remove from the rotation. Give all of em the extra rest until something cracks. Don’t go dropping Manaea yet.
Drew Rasmussen (TB) @ WSH (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 66 pitches.
He’s throwing a new cutter this year – more spin, less velocity, more vertical drop – and he located it well down-and-armside to along with his sweeper and four-seamer…and sinker…and curveball. I don’t think it was one of those starts where he demanded seven strikeouts, but he pounded the zone effectively and glided across six frames against the Nationals en route to a King Cole. Just what the DR ordered. He’s pretty dang good.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) @ TEX (ND) – 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 28 pitches.
Bradish was sitting almost a tick up on his heater (still just 1/12 whiffs) and Fast was dang excited. So excited, that it introduced karma for Bradish to take a 104 mph comebacker to the foot. Sigh. We’ll see if he makes his next start. For now, Tyler Wells took over in Bradish’s place (5.0 IP of perfection & 2 Ks in 47 pitches, 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW. Wow…) with the possibility of DL Hall starting on Tuesday in his place. I wouldn’t chase any of this, though I’m curious what happens next.
Nestor Cortes (NYY) vs PHI (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 80 pitches.
He got Singled Out as the four-seamer is the pitch of old and he still earned a 35% CSW on his cutter. All is good here and now that Cortes is at 80 pitches, he’ll flirt with 90 next time if all goes well. It’s what you want.
Brady Singer (KC) vs TOR (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 76 pitches.
Huge props to Singer here – I thought this would be a lot tougher against the Jays and his sinker/slider combo was able to induce enough outs to steal a Win against Berríos. I still see him as a Cherry Bomb, but he’s taking steps to rid himself of the dreaded label. Steps, not leaps y’all.
Jon Gray (TEX) vs BAL (L) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches.
This seems like a start to get excited by, but I’m not buying it. Gray’s fastball was a tick down (8.5% SwStr rate) and got by from 11 called strikes while the slider returned just a 24% CSW. This isn’t the portrait of Gray we’re looking for…and yet he gets the Cubs next. So fine, I guess that has a good shot of working out, too. And everyone rejoiced.
Ryan Weathers (SD) vs ARI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.
I didn’t have Weathers inside the rotation on my bingo card this February and what we saw was a harder heater at 95/96 mph and a great changeup that returned 7/31 whiffs. Huh. The fastball/slider game has been usurped (still there at 17% usage), but with his heater looking wild despite the new velocity (51% strikes?!), I’m still staying away from this.
Reid Detmers (LAA) @ SEA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 89 pitches.
I watched all of this one (duh) and he was this close to getting the Win before allowing a two-out RBI single to Eugenio Suárez that got him pulled. To be fair, he was in a tough first-and-second-no-out jam and I absolutely adore that they left him in. He induced a pop-out and a shallow fly before Suarez’s single, but I want to stay positive that they trusted him and he nearly made it out unscathed. As for the ability on the bump, I love his 95+ mph heater upstairs mixed with a strong slider and a curveball that baffled batters for a 63% CSW, but there is one last piece of the puzzle in his command. He’s close, it’s just not quite there yet – the three walks could have been more in this one as he was often behind batters. The moment it clicks for the 23-year-old, it’s gonna be fun to watch.
Matthew Boyd (DET) @ HOU (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 76 pitches.
We were scared of the matchup and while this could have been a whole lot worse, it’s still not great. I like the elevated four-seamer command, but everything else was rough. Just 1/21 slider whiffs as the pitch hung a ton, while the changeup was all over the place. Doesn’t feel great. It’s just one start and it could very well come back with more time, I just wanted to feel okay against the Red Sox next, you know? That’ll still be a questionable start, for what it’s worth. Boyd oh Boyd…
Charlie Morton (ATL) @ STL (W) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 81 pitches.
During today’s steam of The List I could have sworn I had already witnessed Morton disappointing us. Clearly I had a vision and I really wish I hadn’t. The curve returned a stupid low 15% CSW while the rest of Morton’s repertoire looked around nervously hoping they wouldn’t be called on next. Changeup, what’s the best 1-1 pitch in this situation? TEACH, I DON’T KNOW. Morton is notoriously a slow starter (and thus fantasy manager stress inducer) so you should stick with it, but how long will it take for the curve to return? One start? Two starts? Three starts? Four starts? Nick we get it. I’m almost there. Five starts? Six starts? Seve–NICK PLEASE. I’d say it’s a case where you should constantly be monitoring your waiver wire for something that is a legit lock or not. I’d be shocked if you felt that strongly about someone else and there isn’t another drop to make, but if we’re in the same situation in two more starts from Morton after he faces the Royals, then we may need to do something about it.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) @ SD (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.
Not the best fastball command here in this risky proposition against the Padres, even if their offense was a bit cold this weekend. The slider was solid (67% strikes and well spotted) and I’m thrilled he was allowed to throw 97 pitches, but sadly he gets the Dodgers next and I’m gonna pass there. He does get Miami after, though, and you may want to jump in then. Be patient.
Trevor Williams (WSH) vs TB (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 93 pitches.
This is better than I expected and that should speak volumes. VOL-UMES.
Michael Grove (LAD) vs COL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 63 pitches.
Grove has to figure out that four-seamer command. The breakers are doing great work and all he needs to do is elevate the dang fastball to pull off the BSB, but instead it seemed like he chucked it wherever close to the zone. He has the Diamondbacks + 2x Cubs ahead if he keeps this rotation spot and with his pitch count likely over 70 next time out, there’s legit potential for him to help your teams. Can’t say the heater will do its part, though.
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs DET (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 93 pitches.
Well this isn’t fun. The four-seamer is a called strike offering (30% rate!) and not a whiff pitch (1/40 lol), which works if you’re setting up legit secndaries. Sadly, we didn’t see those today as both the slider and curve returned a 23% CSW. The Tigers fought off pitches well, Brown didn’t have a backup plan, and it led to hits, walks, and 4 ER. I imagine the breakers will improve with time and I may give it another try against the Twins next. Likely. Maybe. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Johan Oviedo (PIT) @ BOS (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 94 pitches.
I love he’s going nearly 50% sliders, and while there are some great breakers that steal the show, there are plenty of ones that catch too much of the plate or don’t do enough when he needs it. The stuff is there, and it’ll take time to find the consistency that turns him into the wire pick of the week.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) @ NYY (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
Soooooo I was terrified about Walker’s 3-4 mph drop in his final spring tune-up and I was completely wrong (sorry about that, I just noticed something super off and wanted to share it!) as Walker shockingly sat a tick up on his four-seamer today at 95 mph. That’s awesome! What isn’t was its command + his splitter returning just an 11% CSW + the slider being okay but not excellent. On the plus side, I do feel a lot better about facing Cincinnati next time with his velocity back to normal. So at least he’s got that going for him.
George Kirby (SEA) vs LAA (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 84 pitches.
The story is the same from last year – four-seamer is getting all the whiffs (11/39) with a 49% CSW and there’s nothing else to support them. The changeup was hit hard, the curve fell for some strikes but wasn’t much else, and the slider was inconsistent. That four-seamer is still legit, though, and the break of the slider does excite me. I was kinda hoping for more. Hopefully in due time.
Johnny Cueto (MIA) vs MIN (L) – 1.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 30 pitches.
Cueto left this one early with bicep tightness, which could mean Braxton Garrett returns from his one-day vacation in the minors. No, he’s not worth a pickup against the Mets next week, sadly. I sure do wish it were Eury Perez, though.
James Kaprielian (OAK) vs CLE (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 89 pitches.
The velocity was down two ticks across the board, he had a fair amount of wasted pitches mixed with stupid hangers over the plate, and we’re still waiting for Kap to have that stretch where we feel comfortable streaming him. In due time, y’all.
Ryan Feltner (COL) @ LAD (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 92 pitches.
Hey, seven strikeouts! Good job Feltner, I’m proud of ya.
Connor Overton (CIN) vs CHC (ND) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 80 pitches.
The 2,001 pounder had himself a day with his slider (53% CSW!) but the heater is oh-so-hittable and…why am I continuing, you didn’t even know who Overton was until you read this.
Carlos Carrasco (NYM) @ MIL (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches.
Carrasco looked pretty for the first two frames, then his velocity dipped dramatically, going from 93 mph early to allowing a longball on an 88.7 mph heater. You really don’t want to see that velocity drop like this and I just can’t trust Carrasco for his next start against Miami. Nor @OAK. Double nor @SFG. Sigh. Why do you have to do this to us Carrasco?
Drew Smyly (CHC) @ CIN (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
Welp, that wasn’t good. The sinker is a tick down and needed to be a bit better to keep batters at bay. And now it’s the Mariners + Dodgers twice. Ouch. Man, to think I was talking about a possible sneaky stream from Smyly for, what, three months? Whatareyagonnado.
Jake Woodford (STL) vs ATL (L) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 95 pitches.
The Amish Mustang is starting instead of Matthew Libertore and it still bothers me. Come on Cards, you know what you need to do.
Zach Plesac (CLE) @ OAK (ND) – 1.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 53 pitches.
Bleeeegh. “It’s the Athletics, how bad could it be?” he said, like a dingus. Never again, Plesac. Never again.
Michael Kopech (CWS) vs SF (L) – 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 91 pitches.
This was brutal. Kopech’s heater fell down to 91 mph as he allowed HR after HR and I can’t see a reason to chase this right now. Sure it could turn around, but think of the floor! It’s that old kitchen floor you see in old TV shows and never actually want for yourself. You deserve better. So much better. Stay away from Kopech.
Kutter Crawford (BOS) vs PIT (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 93 pitches.
At just 15 whiffs, Crawford earned a Gallows Pole and his award ceremony looks like this. I don’t expect us to see a whole lot more of Crawford this year with Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello sure to return in the near future and if Crawford gets too hit by the Pirates, do we really think it’ll be any different against the Tigers?
José Berríos (TOR) @ KC (L) – 5.2 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 89 pitches.
Berríos was granted a start inside Kansas City and it just didn’t matter. Don’t do it, y’all. I don’t care if his next start is fantastic – the fastballs are too dang volatile and you’re better off being free and happy. The Great Undulater is becoming the Anti-Nike. Just don’t do it.
Game of the Day
Kenta Maeda vs. Sandy Alcantara – Obviously I want to watch Sandy finding his fastball command, but I really want Maeda to thrive as well. It’s in him, I can just feel it.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)