Severed No-No

Nick Pollack reviews every starting pitcher performance from Monday.

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 9 am-11 am ET.  

Luis Severino (NYY) @ TEX (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches.

We had no idea what to make of Luis Severino entering this year as he was shuffled into the array of other injured starters making their return this season. We’d seen a collective 18 frames since the end of 2018 from Severino, and despite a lat strain in the middle of the year, Severino came back in September to push himself over 100 frames, concluding tonight with a marvelous 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 94 pitches Win against the Rangers.

Yes, he was pulled from a no-hitter and he should have – the playoffs are next and this was a ramp-up start, not a “give it everything you have” start. That aside, Sevy ends the year with a 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a near 30% strikeout rate, pushing that last number with a near 98 mph heater tonight (10/55 whiffs and 36% CSW). Ummmmm I think he’s back y’all.

The biggest question entering next year will be health and it’s sure to depress his ADP, though his slider was so dang good. We’re talking a 40%+ CSW across over 20% usage and it’s hard not to fawn at the velocity rising as he had more innings under his belt. I do question if he’ll get the feel back for his changeup (sub 60% strike rate, 25% CSW), though there’s too much to like to get hung up on that.

It’s good to have legit Severino back. Enjoy the incoming Playoff Tax.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:

 

Aaron Nola (PHI) @ HOU (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 88 pitches.

Aces gonna ace with a glorious King Cole. He sent the Phils to the postseason and boy did Easy A deserve his first taste of October. Congrats, fella.

Hunter Greene (CIN) vs CHC (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 90 pitches.

Hunter has looked like a different man in the past month and is sure to shoot up draft boards next year. I can see it now: “Greene or Lodolo?” It’s hard to bet against 100.1 mph average four-seamers (42% CSW, 12 whiffs here), but it’s the command that makes me question him. See, last time out I was praising him for what seemed like better precision, and this start…was not that. A whole lot of “here you go, hit it” heaters + sliders that didn’t do what he wanted plenty of the time. Something to think about.

Jesús Luzardo (MIA) vs ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 101 pitches.

OH DANG. With two difficult matchups to end the season, Luzardo stepped up and made a statement, both without his elite changeup at his peak (still four whiffs), if you can believe it. The curve was bonkers via 48% CSW and 9/31 whiffs, while the four-seamer sat 96 mph and boasted a 43% clip of its own. Enjoy the Gallows PoleI hope many will gloss over you as I swoop in and scoop you up across all my leagues next year.

Joe Musgrove (SD) vs SF (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 85 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. The full kitchen sink was back + 4/17 slider whiffs. Things seem all good here and ready for the playoffs. Darvish + Musgrove vs. deGrom + Scherzer could be WILD.

Patrick Sandoval (LAA) @ OAK (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 97 pitches.

THERE IT IS. It took possibly the whole dang year, but The Irish Panda finally had his prime changeup, returning 10/39 whiffs and…was floated about half the time. BUT THE WHIFFS WERE THERE. I think I’m taking a step back from my love for Sandoval next year – he has a whole lot of command questions to answer – but at least the stuff is still there.

Tyler Glasnow (TB) @ BOS (ND) – 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 64 pitches.

I was hoping for 70+ and a chance for five frames, but I get it. He’s jumped 15 pitches from his return from the IL, paving the way for 80 in his playoff outing, sacrificing glasnow for glaslater. Is he back? Oh yes. 97 mph. A stupid hard to hit curve. A stupid harder to hit slider. He’s back.

José Quintana (STL) @ PIT (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 38 pitches.

Quintana split this with Miles Mikolas and we all wept. IT’S NOT FAIR. It was a miraculous renaissance for Quintana in 2022, though I find it hard to bank on newfound command sticking for another full year, which will have me passing in 2023 drafts. As for Mikolas…yeah, more of the same. The Cards will get the Jays + Braves to kick of the year, which means I’m not even picking him up for an early stream. Womp womp. Wait, you’re already looking at March/April 2023 matchups?! GOTTA GET AHEAD OF THE CROWD.

John Brebbia (SF) @ SD (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 11 pitches.

Soooo Sean Hjelle showed up and earned 10/33 whiffs with his curve while his sinker earned 12 called strikes – hey, that’s the Singer method! – as he went 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. He may get a look at a proper starting job next year and it’s hard not to have some intrigue after performances like these. Hmmmmmm.

Tommy Henry (ARI) @ MIL (ND) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 89 pitches.

Would you look at that. The slider was spotted well and the heater wasn’t taken advantage of inside the zone. So maybe we can trust people with two first names…

José Berríos (TOR) @ BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.

So he came through in his final start of the year, featuring a 47% curveball and…1.6 mph ticks down on his sinker. He ends this tumultuous season with a 5.23 ERA and you have to wonder what people will do in drafts next year. Me? I think I avoid completely. Unless he has something different early, we won’t feel confident in a good game or two in April vs. other arms who could show something new and special.

Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) vs PHI (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 94 pitches.

That’s some good ole pitchin’ right there…after allowing a HR on his first pitch of the game. The curve went 11/12 strikes, but the slider was featured 43% of the time and did most of the work near a 70% strike rate. We didn’t see a whole lot of McCullers this year (sub 50 IP total), but he was more of the same guy we’ve seen through most of his career and I wouldn’t expect a whole lot different next year across 130-140 IP or so.

Hayden Wesneski (CHC) @ CIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 86 pitches.

Atta boy Hayden. The curve was great once again and the 92/93 mph heater did the trick. I wonder what the spring battle will be – Steele, Wesneski, Thompson, Sampson, Assad + Stroman & Hendricks and whoever the Cubs sign. Should be interesting. I see Hayden as a streamer and not someone to hold (there isn’t much else there past the hook), but I hope he gets routine starts to slot him in during the NL Central starts.

Rich Hill (BOS) vs TB (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 80 pitches.

The Cherry Bomb came through when you needed it most and I’m as shocked as you are that he went 124 frames at the ripe age of 42. Seems like it’s time to let this one go, now, and I’m happy he ended on a high note.

Martín Pérez (TEX) vs NYY (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 77 pitches.

The changeup was there as he squirmed his way through six frames for just one earned run. This will be one of those Dereck Rodríguez seasons where we see the low 2.89 ERA and completely disregard it next season. Yes, 2.89 ERA. It was that good.

Zack Greinke (KC) @ CLE (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 103 pitches.

This may be the last we see of Greinke and a HAISTBMBWT?! with just one earned run in six is such a dang fitting potential end to his career. He just finds a way.

Triston McKenzie (CLE) vs KC (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 73 pitches.

I can’t wait to hear all the praise McKenzie gets on the national stage this week as he deserves a h*ck of a lot of it after this season. As someone who doubted a decent amount all the way through, I’m stoked to be wrong and truly hope he only gets better from here.

José Ureña (COL) @ LAD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 91 pitches.

What a ridiculous man. That’s a 5.01 ERA, don’t get any wild ideas about next season. He’s the new Senzatela.

Tony Gonsolin (LAD) vs COL (ND) – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 40 pitches.

Womp womp. At least you got three strikeouts from it? The Still ILL laws aren’t meant to be broken despite how much I want them to be.

Johnny Cueto (CWS) vs MIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 98 pitches.

And thus concludes the miracle that was Cueto’s 2022 season with a 3.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP across 158 innings. Incredible. What a legend.

Brandon Woodruff (MIL) vs ARI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 100 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Thus concludes Woody’s 2022 with a 3.05 ERA, sub 1.10 WHIP, and a 31% strikeout rate across 153 innings. Let’s all be thrilled he came through after the disaster that was his 5.97 ERA through his first six starts. Yikes. The fastball came back and it was wonderful.

Bailey Ober (MIN) @ CWS (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 82 pitches.

Why must you tease me so??? Bailey went just 2/13 whiffs on his slider after last week’s twelve whiff brigade and I’m sad. But he did well! YEAH WHATEVER. I wanted true growth! Excitement! PROMISE OF THE FUTURE.

Mitch Keller (PIT) vs STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.

Hmmmm. I’d be happy if I started Keller here as he finished his season with seven of his final eight games coming with 2 ER or fewer, lowering his ERA to just 3.91 for the year. I won’t rule out the chance he can take another step forward next year, but I don’t think I saw a major step forward this year, even with that ERA – it came with a 1.40 WHIP, y’all. Just because he had a 0.80 HR/9 doesn’t mean he’s fixed now.

Adrian Martinez (OAK) vs LAA (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 81 pitches.

Yeaaaah I’m not much of an AM guy – he says writing this at 1:00am. THAT MEANS I’M A PM GUY. That’s not what the clock says.

Dean Kremer (BAL) vs TOR (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 82 pitches.

Hey, we’ll take a PQS from Kremer against the Jays. I’m likely staying away from all Oriole arms in the spring (save for Grayson Rodriguez or even DL Hall speculation…) but bring back the streams please.

Bryan Garcia (DET) @ SEA (W) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 89 pitches.

Garcia loves his changeup and props to him for a successful night at the park. Save for the deepest of leagues, I’d avoid this.

Bryce Elder (ATL) @ MIA (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 98 pitches.

Booooo. A rugged first frame amplified by an error + a two-run shot messed up Elder here (it was really all the work of Bryan De La Cruz) and now I’m still one away from hitting 100 streaming victories with two days to go. The tension is killing me. As for Elder, he feels like Kyle Hendricks 2.0 (for real this time, not that Dach Zavies guy), but without the changeup and more with sinkers and cutters. Atlanta has a ton of options for next year, though, so his starts will still be spotty next year.

George Kirby (SEA) vs DET (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 93 pitches.

…NOPE. DON’T TRUST GUYS WITH TWO FIRST NAMES. Man, this was a shock to see – against the TIGERS! – as the Tigers were able to clip his heater instead of earning whiffs (sidenote: Kirby’s four-seamer is sixth in the majors in foul rate at 26% [league average is 21%] and this was 48% tonight. Wild.), which I blame on the pitch sitting 1.6 ticks lower than usual at 94 mph instead of 95/96. I’m disappointed like the rest of you, but he served us well this year and we should be thankful for the man. His four-seamer is legit and will still be legit in 2023.

 

Game of the Day

 

Zac Gallen vs. Eric Lauer – We are all Gallen Gals + I’m curious if Lauer can dominate one more time.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 9:00 am – 11:00 am ET Monday through Friday.

Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

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