SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 7/20 & 7/21

With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings

Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.

The four tiers are as follows:

 

Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.

Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.

Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.

Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.

 

Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.

Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!

Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.

There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.

Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!). These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.

 

2021 Streamer Record: 59-44

 

Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• The top tier is an odd one on Tuesday as the only two Top 30 starters are Yu Darvish and Trevor Rogers, the latter squaring off against the Nationals. Despite the lower-ranked options, many of them are deserving of your start and I moved them out of the second tier given the matchups.
• For example, Tarik Skubal and Germán Márquez each get a great matchup and deserve your attention. Aaron Nola has had bad luck and should perform well against a damaged Yankee lineup, and Shane McClanahan is simply too skilled to bench.

 

• The second tier is just one man, Wade Miley. He’s not as exceptional as those in the top tier, though his ratios have demanded your attention and he should be fine to start against the Mets.
• I can see some wanting James Kaprielian or Alex Wood in this tier as well, but both face top-10 offenses and make for a tougher decision for managers.

 

• It gets tougher in the third tier as Domingo Germán faces the Phillies this week. We know he has the talent in his curveball to make it work but we haven’t seen him in a rhythm for a good while. It’s a gamble.
• Then there’s the trio of Taylor Widener, Dane Dunning, and Tyler Anderson. Three solid matchups, three middling pitchers. Take your pick who you’d like to stream, I’m leaning Anderson as he’s pitching to get himself out of Pittsburgh for the deadline. It’s incredibly close for all three, though. Good luck if you’re making a choice here.

 

• I’m excited to watch John Means make his return to the hill, sadly it’s a Still ILL situation and you’re better off watching from the sidelines.
• I’m also stoked for the opportunity to watch Josiah Gray against the Giants. His stuff is legit, the question is how the Dodgers will utilize him here and moving forward. He’ll likely be limited, turning this into a bench.

 

• We saw an improved Triston McKenzie last time out, with two ticks extra on his fastball velocity. Sadly, it’s the Astros and even with that velocity, this is an uphill battle.

 

Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• It looks like Robbie Ray earns the top spot this week after I lifted him to Tier 2 of The List on Monday. The Red Sox are a strong squad, but Ray has just been that good.
• Kyle Hendricks and Adam Wainwright are pitted against each other on Wednesday and could return a lovely pitching duel as both as well capable of going 6+ strong against their respective clubs.

 

• Once again, Dylan Cease finds himself alone in the second tier as he faces the Twins. I think the reward is worth the risk with Cease each time he starts, though I recognize a floor that may keep some away.
• Kicking off the third tier is Jordan Montgomery, who has undulated all season. His changeup and curveball are whiff machines and there’s a chance they can fully blossom against a solid Phillies crew. There seems to be one small tweak missing from The Bear to turn him into a dependable arm and he could find it this week.

 

• The streaming pick of the day is Chad Kuhl as he stares down Madison Bumgarner in Arizona. Bumgarner is slightly above the 20% rostered threshold, but does come with some hesitation as his fastball fell below 90 mph in his return from the IL. Meanwhile, Kuhl is tossing nearly 50% sliders and having success along the way. Hopefully it sticks.
• What are we to do with Marcus Stroman and Michael Pineda? That choice is yours as they could give you 5/6 innings of production…or fall flat on their faces.

 

• I’m thrilled to see both Logan Webb and Tanner Houck getting starts, though they each have a tall task ahead and are best left on your bench as they deal with the Dodgers and Jays. If you need the upside, they are the ones to look toward.
• On the other side of the coin is Matt Manning, who could give you six boring frames against the Rangers. He’s been all kinds of shaky, though, and I wouldn’t risk if I didn’t have to.

 

• It’s no fun seeing Chris Paddack in the bottom tier, but given his poor repertoire across the last few weeks, we don’t have much of a choice.
• And hey, that’s Touki Toussaint! And Bryce Wilson! I hope they both succeed but it’ll be a difficult challenge as they get the Padres + we’re in the dark about their usage for the evening.

 

Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)