With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!). These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
2021 Streamer Record: 58-44
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Like Sunday’s ranks, teams have been erratic in solidifying their rotations out of the break, making it tough to create an accurate table. It’s going to be rough this weekend, please don’t hate me.
- Seriously, Monday had more unconfirmed starters than confirmed. This will change.
- The top tier has the usual suspects, though some may be surprised to see Zack Greinke at the tail end as he gets Cleveland. He’s not the sexiest of arms, but there is no good reason to not start him against Cleveland’s mediocre crew.
- It was the first misstep for a long time for Kyle Gibson last time out, but I’m willing to wager it was a blip, not the beginning of the end, and we have the luxury of comfort with Detroit in his sights.
- The second tier is a short one. José Berríos will start against the White Sox for the third time in four games. The prior two have been both sides of the Berríos coin and it’s not clear which one we’ll see here.
- I decided to elevate Tony Gonsolin as well as his floor seems reasonable + there’s a ceiling we haven’t quite seen from Tony that I hope he can achieve here against the Giants. It’s a close call.
- The streaming pick of the day goes to Alec Mills as we follow “The Cardinal Rule”. Mills has the ability to carve up quality innings and the Cardinals are far from intimidating.
- I gave some consideration to Vladimir Gutiérrez as he faces the Mets and while I like his pitch separation across his deep repertoire, the floor is a bit too scary here.
- Don’t ignore the potential ceiling for Caleb Smith despite the horrendous performance against the Dodgers last time out. He gets the Pirates and could put it all together.
- I’m hoping we see Kyle Muller return for Atlanta, though it’s the Padres and you’re better off targeting his following outing against the Phillies.
- In the bottom tier, I’m avoiding both sides of the Boston vs. Toronto matchup despite the ceilings for both Ross Stripling and Nick Pivetta. The bats are just too dang good.
- I know you’re tempted to start Casey Mize but don’t forget – The Tigers will limit his pitch count heavily. It’s not worth it.
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- The top tier is an odd one on Tuesday as the only Top 30 starter is Trevor Rogers as he squares off against the Nationals. Despite the lower-ranked options, many of them are deserving of your start and I moved them out of the second tier given the matchups.
- For example, Tarik Skubal and Germán Márquez each get a great matchup and deserve your attention. Aaron Nola has had bad luck and should perform well against a damaged Yankee lineup, and Shane McClanahan is simply too skilled to bench.
- The second tier is just one man, Wade Miley. He’s not as exceptional as those in the top tier, though his ratios have demanded your attention and he should be fine to start against the Mets.
- I can see some wanting James Kaprielian, Alex Manoah, or Alex Wood in this tier as well, but all three face top-10 offenses and make for a tougher decision for managers.
- It gets tougher in the third tier as Domingo Germán faces the Phillies this week. We know he has the talent in his curveball to make it work but we haven’t seen him in a rhythm for a good while. It’s a gamble.
- Then there’s the trio of Taylor Widener, Dane Dunning, and Tyler Anderson. Three solid matchups, three middling pitchers. Take your pick who you’d like to stream, I’m leaning Anderson as he’s pitching to get himself out of Pittsburgh for the deadline. It’s incredibly close for all three, though. Good luck if you’re making a choice here.
- I’m excited to watch John Means make his return to the hill, sadly it’s a Still ILL situation and you’re better off watching from the sidelines.
- I’m also stoked for the opportunity to watch Josiah Gray against the Giants. His stuff is legit, the question is how the Dodgers will utilize him here and moving forward. He’ll likely be limited, turning this into a bench.
- We saw an improved Triston McKenzie last time out, with two ticks extra on his fastball velocity. Sadly, it’s the Astros and even with that velocity, this is an uphill battle.
- And hey, that’s Touki Toussaint! I hope he succeeds but it’ll be a difficult challenge as he gets the Padres + we’re in the dark about his usage for the evening.
Photo by Tom Hagerty | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)