SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 5/26 & 5/27

With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings

Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.

The four tiers are as follows:

 

Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.

Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.

Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.

Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.

 

Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.

Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!

Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.

There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.

Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!). These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.

 

2021 Streamer Record: 35-16

 

Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• It’s half considerable options, have avoids on Wednesday, leading off with an “Auto-Start” nod for Marcus Stroman as he’s fortunate to earn a start against Rockie Road. I’m not sure we’ll see him in the first tier again all season (I hope we do!) and let’s enjoy this moment for Stroman.
• It may surprise some to see Tyler Glasnow ranked fourth and behind Carlos Rodón despite being placed higher on The List and getting arguably a better matchup. After failing to deceive batters in his last outing, Glasnow is looking a touch rougher in the current moment, while Rodón is as sharp as ever. It’s safer to expect Glasnow to perform through the full year, but as of right now, Rodón is the better play for a single evening.

 

• The second is short, leading off with German Marquez against the Mets in New York. It’s the most ideal situation for Marquez – likely the best he’ll get all year – as the Mets are depleted and are outside Coors. Start him with confidence.
• Chris Paddack isn’t quite the 2019 guy yet, but he should be able to a take advantage of an evening against the Brewers. Look for his fastball up and changeups down.

 

• There are some names in the third tier who could make a case to push into the second. Domingo German has certainly proven himself as a reliable starter as of late, displaying a fantastic curveball and even a solid changeup as his #3 pitch. The Jays do warrant hesitation, though, so play this one by team.
• James Kaprielian is the obvious streaming pick of the day as he gets the Mariners, arguably so comfortable a start that he should be in the second tier. We haven’t seen a lot of Kap so far in the majors, making me a touch hesitant to endorse him so much, but this should be a solid outing for the rookie.

 

• Griffin Canning and Dane Dunning are squaring off in Los Angeles and I’m leaning in favor of Canning’s strikeout upside over Dunning’s more proven ability to keep the ratios down. Canning also gets to face the weaker offense, after all.
• After fanning twelve Dodgers in his previous start, I’m not ruling out Kelly continuing his momentum against the Giants. It’s risky, but this could be a beneficial time in Arizona.

 

• Johnny Cueto returns to the third tier as he gets a solid matchup against the Diamondbacks. I’m not expecting a whole lot, but I get that he can pull off this stream.
• The last option is José Ureña who could feast on a Cleveland offense missing Franmil Reyes. He’s had multiple starts of seven innings already this season, after all.

 

• The final tier is a large one, with Alek Manoah leading off. He should be picked up where he’s available as you wait and see how he performs in the Bronx. It’s simply too risky to let him fly in his first outing.
• Some may want to see Trevor Williams in the third tier, but the ceiling isn’t worth the floor as Williams has failed to come through against weak lineups multiple times already.

 

Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• It’s time for Shane Bieber to be the man we drafted, right? It’s the Tigers, you’ve got this Bieber.
• Despite not looking his best as of late, Sonny Gray is still in the top tier as he faces the middling Nationals offense. There isn’t enough risk here to turn down the potential reward.

 

• We debated plenty about the order of the second tier during the Twitch stream and I settled on putting Chris Bassitt at the end – not because I don’t like this start, but simply because the other options are either safer or bring a higher ceiling to the table.
• Take Robbie Ray, for example. His K/BB rate has been insane since he began getting comfortable with four-seamers over the plate, while he’s begun adapting changeups, sliders, and curveballs well as of late to help complement his new approach. Pair that with a Yankee lineup without Stanton, Voit, and LeMahieu, and it could spell a week-winning outing.

 

• I gave a lot of thought to the order of the sixth tier as well, making Dylan Cease the best play of the lot. I can see some wanting him to head even to the second tier, but there’s still a lot of volatility inside his repertoire outside of his slider – even the Orioles could make for an inefficient outing from Cease.
• Jordan Montgomery has dominated in two of his last three outings, featuring a curveball that ranks among the best pitches in the majors in CSW. However, the Jays are no joke and be wary of the low floor here.

 

• Stephen Strasburg returned last week and gave you solid ratios against the Orioles…but it came with a sub 92 mph heater. I’m not sure Strasburg can be the man we associate with the name if he’s sitting that low on his fastball.
• The same goes for Shohei Ohtani who saw a five-tick drop in velocity last time out. There was no report of an injury, though, and hopefully it was just a weird moment in his exceptional season.

 

• The streaming pick of the day is Antonio Senzatela as he starts on the road (yes!) to face the damaged replaceMets. This may be the only time I’ll go with Senz-A the entire season and you should feel relatively safe doing so. Wild.
• Spencer Howard may be a popular play as well, though I have my concerns about how long he’ll be allowed to go against the Marlins. I’d also love to see more from his changeup and slider if I’m going to give him the nod in the future.

 

• In the final tier, Tyler Anderson is coming off a decimation at the hands of Atlanta, but could rebound against the Cubs. I don’t love it, but he’s shown plenty of upside so far this year.
• Don’t ignore Jordan Lyles in deep leagues as his slider can show up on a given night and help him cruise through six innings. Just ask the Yankees.

 

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