SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings – 4/13 & 4/14

With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings

Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.

The four tiers are as follows:

 

Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.

Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.

Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.

Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.

 

Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.

Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!

Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.

There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.

Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!) . These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.

 

Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• It’s ace day and don’t overthink this. Yes, I have Shane Bieber as the third option, but it’s only because Trevor Bauer and Lucas Giolito each have fantastic matchups while Bieber has to face the strong ChiSox. Who cares, they’re all dope and make you feel dope.
• Here’s to hoping everything is fine with Stephen Strasburg and his velocity picks up a tick from his season debut.

 

• The second tier has Zac Gallen and Jake Odorizzi, both of whom would be making their season debuts. With Gallen, it’s not official yet, and monitor the situation, but I’d expect him to go roughly 70-80 pitches. It’s a possible Still ILL, but I feel comfortable letting him loose on my rosters. With Odorizzi, he’s been ramping up and gets a lovely date with the Tigers. Take advantage.
• I debated with John Means and Pablo Lopez at the top of the tier and in the end, matchups are the tie-breakers. Seattle is struggling while Atlanta is dangerous. Let’s just hope they both have wonderful performances.

 

• It’s good to see Ryan Yarbrough get a comfortable matchup after his tough afternoon against the Red Sox. You held on and didn’t panic, right?
• I have some hesitation with Jameson Taillon as he continues to stretch out and faces the strong Jays bats, but I think if I have him on my squad, I’m taking the chance. His slider has been great and his new four-seamer plays well.

 

• Taijuan Walker was throwing plenty harder in his first start of the season and I’m tempted to bet it sticks against the Phillies. I wasn’t in love with his secondary offerings, though, so even if he keeps his fastball hot, it’s not a lock for success.
• I really hope Matthew Boyd dominates against the Astros – he’ll have to recover his 2019 slider to make me confident moving forward. Keep an eye out for the pitch here.

 

• Kyle Gibson shouldn’t be overlooked for his start again the Rays after looking as good as ever against the Jays last week. It’s a lovely two-starter as well with Baltimore on the other side, making this a possible pick-up and hold if it goes well.
• Dean Kremer and Justus Sheffield are both solid streams as they pitch in today’s double-headers. The Mariners and Orioles are each weak lineups and could struggle to put runs on the board.

 

• In the final tier, I can’t help but wonder if Nick Margevicius can pull it off against the Orioles. There’s a sliver of hope there and it just won’t go away.
• I can’t say the same for Chad Kuhl or Antonio Senzetela, though. The Dodgers and Padres are no joke and it’s very unlikely this will work out in the favor.

 

Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

 

• A strong collection of starters in Tier 1 today and I’m electing to favor Corbin Burnes at the top followed by Joe Musgrove, despite Kenta Maeda’s #11 ranking on The List. Yesterday’s Top 100 is all about season-long and I believe in Maeda for the next 5+ months, but we can’t deny how well Musgrove and Burnes are pitching at the moment + they have excellent matchups for Wednesday.
• Yes, Dustin May sneaks into the top tier as he has the best matchup in baseball – a date with Rockie Road in a pitcher’s park.

 

• It’s unclear at the moment if Carlos Rodon is starting on Wednesday after missing his Monday start with an illness. I’d still start him against the questionable Cleveland lineup if he gets the chance.
• Corey Kluber hasn’t been as dazzling as we’d hoped out of the gate, but I’m expecting him to take steps forward with each April outing. He’s worth the start against the Jays.

 

• We have some interesting arms in the third tier, starting with Rich Hill. We had concerns about his IPS entering the season with Tampa Bay, but he tossed six frames against the Yankees over the weekend and could do the same against the comfortable Texas bats.
• Griffin Canning gets the nod as the streaming pick of the day as he could bring his strikeout upside in full force against the middling Royals lineup.

 

• I was tempted to make Justin Dunn the leader of the tier, despite allowing eight walks in his season opener. I’m seeing that outing in the same light as his MLB debut, where he walked five in just 0.2 innings. He was anxious, walked everyone, and I’m expecting a much more relaxed and in control pitcher against the Orioles. Don’t forget, he has an improved slider and increased velocity.
• There’s a chance Jake Arrieta can pull this off for another outing as he faces the Brewers, though this is more of a Vargas Rule than anything.

 

• No, Johnny Cueto isn’t suddenly a stud after going 8.2 frames in his last outing. He faced the Rockies, on the road, and in Oracle Park. The Reds are plenty dangerous and don’t ignore it.
• While I don’t believe that Joe Ross can survive with just four whiffs constantly, I can’t ignore that he made it work against the strong Dodgers last time. Maybe he can survive against the Cardinals, too.

 

• It may surprise you, but Tyler Anderson is inside the Top 10 in SwStr% so far this season. Meanwhile, the Padres have allowed fantastic evenings from Mike Foltynewicz and Trevor Cahill. There’s a chance this works.
• Even though Michael Fulmer finally gets the start, I wouldn’t expect him to do well. The Astros are tough and he still doesn’t have his changeup back. I really hope he can find it in this one.

 

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