With the 2021 season, I’m changing how I’m doing my starting pitcher streamers and daily matchup rankings
Instead of being featured in the SP Roundup, I’ll be highlighting my SP streamer picks for today and tomorrow inside this article, while also introducing four tiers and adding notes to each table.
The four tiers are as follows:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm.
Questionable Start – There are situations where I’d take the chance, either with strong enough upside on the ability side, or a poor offense that a pitcher could take advantage of.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results through the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, I have highlighted in Green my streaming pick of the day – Yellow if I wouldn’t actually want to stream them (I have to pick one every day!) . These are defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
Today’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- It’ll be a fun matchup with Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer dueling in Los Angeles – all we can hope for a is a 2-1 game determined by the bullpens.
- I was tempted to put Marcus Stroman in Tier 1 as well, but he hasn’t quite performed like a true ace yet.
- Tier 2 also has German Marquez who gets one of his lovely starts pitching against the Giants in Oracle Park. If you’re not starting him for this, why even roster Marquez?
- Drew Smyly rounds out the end of the second tier with a rough matchup against the Phillies. I still think he can pull it off.
- Jose De Leon kicks off Tier 2 as my streaming pick of the day for two reasons. The Diamondbacks are an atrocious offense + his sinker was filthy last time out. I like these chances, but I still recognize the lack of track record and not-so-great secondary stuff from De Leon.
- Another solid option would be Anthony DeSclafani facing Rockie Road. You saw what Johnny Cueto did on Friday night and Tony Disco can pull this off.
- I know it’s weird to see Nick Pivetta as an option to consider, but he did feature a 95 mph heater and go 50% breakers + these are the Orioles. There are worse Sunday streams.
- Here’s to hoping Adrian Morejon’s splitter can step up and take advantage of a date in Texas.
- With the rain-out on Saturday, Mike Minor starts Sunday and while I think he stuff was there in the first outing, he rolls a tough matchup against the ChiSox. High risk/reward here.
- Don’t forget, Trevor Williams was on top of his game in that first outing and could replicate it against the Pirates. There’s value to be had.
- In the bottom tier, there are many arms and matchups that you should very clearly avoid. Still, I wouldn’t completely rule out Jose Urena against Cleveland. It’s a case of “who will break first?” between Urena’s command and Cleveland’s lack of offense.
- Alex Cobb had his splitter working in the first outing and the Jays have surprisingly floundered a good amount across the first week. There’s a chance this works.
- I don’t love a stream against the Twins, but I do recognize that Chris Flexen and his cutter could squeeze out value here for those in desperate leagues.
- Brett Anderson isn’t going to turn heads, but there’s always a possibility he gets the grounders he needs to produce across five frames.
- I don’t expect Brent Honeywell to go more than two frames in this one, so he’s at the end of the ranks.
|1||Clayton Kershaw||vs. WSH|
|2||Max Scherzer||@ LAD|
|3||Marcus Stroman||vs. MIA|
|4||Jordan Montgomery||@ TBR|
|5||German Marquez||@ SFG|
|6||Drew Smyly||vs. PHI|
|7||Jose De Leon||@ ARI|
|8||Anthony DeSclafani||vs. COL|
|9||Matt Shoemaker||vs. SEA|
|10||Trevor Williams||@ PIT|
|11||Mike Minor||@ CHW|
|12||Logan Allen||vs. DET|
|13||Dylan Cease||vs. KCR|
|14||Daniel Ponce de Leon||vs. MIL|
|15||Adrian Morejon||@ TEX|
|16||Nick Pivetta||@ BAL|
|17||JT Brubaker||vs. CHC|
|Do Not Start|
|18||Jose Urena||@ CLE|
|19||Alex Cobb||@ TOR|
|20||Chris Flexen||@ MIN|
|21||Brett Anderson||@ STL|
|22||Mike Foltynewicz||vs. SDP|
|23||Luke Weaver||vs. CIN|
|24||Tanner Roark||vs. LAA|
|25||Jorge Lopez||vs. BOS|
|26||Daniel Castano?||@ NYM|
|27||Matt Moore||@ ATL|
|28||Brent Honeywell||vs. NYY|
Tomorrow’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
- Yes, I’m throwing Stephen Strasburg and his depreciated velocity into the top tier. If you’ve rostered him, you’re going to start him.
- It pains me to put Sandy Alcantara all the way at #7, but he has the worst matchup of the lot. Poor guy, if he had the Tigers, I’d have him at #4.
- Despite struggling in his first two starts, Chris Bassitt is out of the woods and finally gets a good matchup. This is why we held onto him and he should be ready to produce.
- I’m still on the Carlos Rodon train after last week’s spiked velocity and a date with Cleveland should be in his wheelhouse.
- It’s Freddy Peralta vs. Adbert Alzolay – Round #2! – and I’m still feeling more confident in Peralta, despite a slightly tougher lineup. Alzolay is close but not quite there with his command yet and I hope we see a step forward on Monday.
- Dean Kremer has a great two-start week and begins against a weak Seattle lineup. I’d be streaming him wherever I can, which is in plenty of leagues given his low Rostered %.
- Dane Dunning is another target for his two-start week, who looked solid in his first start of the season. I’d consider him as a streamer, though, not a permanent staple of your rotation.
- Even though we’re excited about Triston McKenzie making his first start of the year, I imagine he’ll struggle against the White Sox + throw fewer innings than we’d like.
- I’m looking forward to seeing Robbie Ray make his 2021 debut, but it’s the Yankees and he’s a Still ILL as I wouldn’t trust him in his first start of the season. Here’s to hoping he throws a ton of strikes, though.
- There’s some intrigue to Casey Mize still, but yeah, you don’t want this against Houston.
|1||Gerrit Cole||@ TOR|
|2||Yu Darvish||@ PIT|
|3||Tyler Glasnow||vs. TEX|
|4||Zack Greinke||vs. DET|
|5||Dylan Bundy||@ KCR|
|6||Max Fried||vs. MIA|
|7||Sandy Alcantara||@ ATL|
|8||Stephen Strasburg||@ STL|
|9||Carlos Rodon||vs. CLE|
|10||Chris Bassitt||@ ARI|
|11||Freddy Peralta||vs. CHC|
|12||Dean Kremer||vs. SEA|
|13||Dane Dunning||@ TBR|
|14||Brady Singer||vs. LAA|
|15||Wade Miley||@ SFG|
|16||Adbert Alzolay||@ MIL|
|17||Justus Sheffield||@ BAL|
|18||J.A. Happ||vs. BOS|
|19||Madison Bumgarner||vs. OAK|
|20||Triston McKenzie||@ CHW|
|Do Not Start|
|21||David Peterson||vs. PHI|
|22||Robbie Ray||vs. NYY|
|23||Martin Perez||@ MIN|
|24||Chase Anderson||@ NYM|
|25||Casey Mize||@ HOU|
|26||Aaron Sanchez||vs. CIN|
|27||John Gant||vs. WSH|
|28||Trevor Cahill||vs. SDP|
Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire | Design by Quincey Dong (@threerundong on Twitter)