SP Future Schedules – Week 10

Justin Wick breaks down the good and bad starter schedules ahead.

Great Schedules

 

Trevor Rogers (MIA)   6/5 @ PIT   6/10 vs. COL   6/15 @ STL

*Avoids ATL 6/11-13

Trevor Rogers was recently appointed the National League Rookie of the Month after pitching a 2.34 ERA over six starts (34 2/3 innings). He worked through a tough-hitting Red Sox lineup in his last outing, holding them to two earned runs in six frames. Rogers will await Pittsburgh on Saturday; while the Pirates have posted the 16th-best wRC+ in the past week, their season figure ranks 29th. Rogers will follow up that outing with the Rockies; their wRC+ ranks dead last, while the Cardinals await later with a wRC+ ranking 19th. 

 

Carlos Rodón (CHW)   6/6 vs. DET   6/11 @ DET

Detroit’s wOBA ranks 26th and Carlos Rodón has already faced them once this year, tossing six innings of one-run baseball. The White Sox have substantiated their lead in the AL Central too, and they could be in prime position for a top arm to help them separate even further. Rodón will await the Rays (6/16) after his back-to-back Tigers starts, however; Tampa Bay’s wOBA ranks 12th.

 

Wade Miley (CIN)   6/6 @ STL   6/11 vs. COL   6/16 @ MIL

*Avoids SD 6/17-20

A collection of below-average wRC+ figures will await Wade Miley in his next three starts; his opponents in order rank a respective 19th, 30th, and 28th. Miley’s worst start of the year came at Coors Field on May 14th (3 IP, 8 ER) but he won’t face the obstacle of Coors Field again as the Rockies will visit Cincinnati next week. In his last two starts, Miley has allowed a combined two runs.

 

Dylan Bundy (LAA)   6/7 vs. KC   6/12 @ ARI   6/17 vs. DET

*Avoids OAK 6/14-16

It could be timely relief for Dylan Bundy as he joins the good schedule list. He has allowed 15 earned runs in his last 12 innings but will face the 21st, 22nd, and 26th-ranked wRC+ in his next three starts. (He will look to avoid Oakland in mid-June and they rank sixth.) Of his next three opponents, Bundy has only seen one of them this year. He tossed seven innings against the Royals in early April, allowing two earned runs.

 

Keegan Akin (BAL)   6/4 vs. CLE   6/9 vs. NYM   6/14 @ CLE

Keegan Akin will await Cleveland and the 27th-ranked wRC+ in his sixth start of the year. He could have his hands full with a Mets squad that has swung well in the past few days, but Akin will soon pitch again against Cleveland. It ends a difficult streak that has featured the Rays, Twins, and White Sox. Akin pitched a season-high 4 2/3 innings in his last start too, but he has seen a somewhat gradual build-up since his season debut on May 12. We’ll see if his workload will increase with some more desirable opponents.

 

Marco Gonzales (SEA)   6/8 @ DET   6/13 @ CLE   ***6/18 vs. TB***   6/23 vs. COL

Overall, this schedule is quite desirable. Detroit, Cleveland, and Colorado all have wRC+ figures that rank 26th or lower. Marco Gonzales is fresh off outings against the A’s, Astros, and Dodgers, ranking a respective fifth, first, and fourth in wRC+. Gonzales held his own in each outing, however, pitching a combined 17 innings and allowing just four runs.

 

Randy Dobnak (MIN)   6/8 vs. NYY   ***6/13 vs. HOU***   6/18 @ TEX   6/24 vs. CLE

The Yankees’ batting figures are still being wavered from their slow start, but their last week has also featured the seventh-worst wRC+ and Randy Dobnak may be catching them at a good time. It will also come after the Yankees and Red Sox tire each other out over the weekend, so Dobnak could sneak himself a solid outing against some tired bats. Houston’s offense has been a statistical masterpiece this year, but meanwhile, Texas has posted a dismal 31 for their wRC+ over the past seven days. If Dobnak controls Houston, he could be in the drivers’ seat for a solid June.

 

Shane McClanahan (TB)   6/8 vs. WAS   6/13 vs. BAL   6/18 @ SEA

*Avoids CHW 6/14-16

Shane McClanahan has been capped at around the five-inning mark this year and has yet to exceed six. He has made seven starts on the year (OAK x2, LAA, NYM, TOR, KC, NYY) and he can now look ahead to a consistent streak of below-average wRC+ in his next three outings.

 

Chad Kuhl (PIT)   6/6 vs. MIA   6/11 @ MIL   6/16 @ WAS

This schedule is similar to McClanahan but slightly more favorable; swap out the 18th and 25th-ranked wRC+ for the 24th and 28th and you’ll get Chad Kuhl’s road ahead. He has been hit around by the Brewers already this year, however, allowing three earned runs in five innings (4/18). His last start was against the Royals and wasn’t too strong either, as he allowed three runs in four frames. Perhaps his start with Miami will be the telling sign for what to expect as the month goes on.

 

 

Bad Schedules

 

Zack Greinke (HOU)   6/4 @ TOR   6/9 @ BOS   ***6/15 vs. TEX***   6/20 vs. CHW

Toronto holds the best wOBA in baseball over the past week and the best overall. Boston has ranked 29th in the past week but still ranks sixth on the year, so they could easily heat back up when Zack Greinke looks ahead to them next week. Texas’ offense has ranked dead last in wOBA over the past week so there will be some relief, but Greinke will soon take on the AL Central-leading White Sox after that. This schedule could be largely dependent on what version of the Red Sox square off against him. If Greinke’s last start is any indicator, he will be just fine (vs. SD: 8 IP, 1 R).

 

Nathan Eovaldi (BOS)   6/4 @ NYY   6/9 vs. HOU   6/14 vs. TOR

Opposing wRC+, in succession: 15th, first, third. Nathan Eovaldi’s easiest opponent in that span will be the Yankees, but it will also come in the Bronx in a series opener; the Red Sox and Yankees are separated by 2 1/2 games right now. Eovaldi’s easier stretch of opponents has ended (Marlins/Phillies) but he rides 10 2/3 innings of two-run baseball into this tough road ahead. He has not faced any of his next three opponents so far this year.

 

Germán Márquez (COL)   6/6 vs. OAK   6/11 @ CIN   6/16 vs. SD

Colorado’s Opening Day starter will make two of his next three starts one mile above sea level. He did just fine in his last home start, holding the Rangers to one run over seven frames. Germán Márquez‘s home start before that featured seven shutout innings to the D-Backs (5/21). Oakland, Cincinnati, and San Diego will await Márquez and they rank a respective fifth, ninth and 14th in wRC+. Márquez faced the Reds on May 14 and allowed four runs in six innings.

 

Joe Musgrove (SD)   6/5 vs. NYM   6/11 @ NYM   6/16 @ COL

Joe Musgrove has suddenly found himself on the bad schedule list as the Mets have posted the second-best wRC+ over the past week (154). To make matters tougher, he will face them twice and will later look ahead to the Rockies. While Colorado has struggled mightily with the 30th-ranked wRC+, they have also won nine of their last 11 at home. Musgrove is currently riding a 16 2/3 scoreless inning streak, however, and the Mets’ offense could soon return to their season wRC+ that ranks 17th.

 

Hyun Jin Ryu (TOR)   6/4 vs. HOU   6/9 @ CHW   6/14 @ BOS

All three of his future opponents rank sixth or higher in wRC+ and wOBA. There isn’t much to say here other than Hyun Jin Ryu could have his hands full. He allowed two runs to Cleveland in his last start (5 IP) and has two starts against the Red Sox under his belt; one was a shutout performance for seven innings and one was a four-run bruise over five frames. He has a 0.45-point discrepancy between his ERA and xFIP, but his future schedule could possibly be a bigger predictive measure. Ryu was the featured player on the ‘good’ schedules two weeks ago.

 

Kris Bubic (KC)   6/8 @ LAA  6/13 @ OAK   6/18 vs. BOS

The Angels’ offense has cooled off with Mike Trout injured, but they still have the 13th-best wRC+. Oakland holds the fifth-best while Boston ranks sixth, so Kris Bubic is on the bad schedule list after facing the Tigers and Brewers in three of his past four starts. His last start came against the tougher-hitting Twins, however, and Bubic worked six innings of one-run baseball. This could be timely as he continues a challenging streak.

 

Michael King (NYY)   6/4 vs. BOS   6/9 @ MIN   6/15 @ TOR   6/20 vs. OAK

Michael King’s schedule is similar to Bubic’s recent and future work, but mix in Toronto and the best wRC+ over the past week. King has become a routine starter for the Yankees since late April but has only exceeded the three-inning mark once this year (4/4; 6 IP), so his future work could be a deal where King only sees the lineup twice and Aaron Boone hands it over to the bullpen. King recorded seven outs to the Tigers in his last outing and allowed two runs.

 

Dane Dunning (TEX)   6/6 vs. TB   6/11 @ LAD   6/16 @ HOU

The Dodgers are in unfamiliar territory: they currently rank third in the NL West. Their offense is still insane, posting the fourth-best wRC+ on the year and standing between Dane Dunning’s starts with the Rays and Astros. Houston is one of three teams to have a better wRC+ than the Dodgers, and the Rays aren’t far behind, ranking eighth. Dunning’s 4.67 ERA on the year is supplemented by a 3.00 FIP, however, so maybe his predictive measures suggest he will surprise people in this otherwise tough stretch.

 

Eric Lauer (MIL)   6/9 @ CIN   6/14 vs. CIN   6/19 @ COL

The Reds rank ninth in wRC+ and Eric Lauer will get the division rival in back-to-back starts. To make matters worse, he will take on the Rockies in Denver after that; Colorado has played far better at home this year than on the road. Lauer allowed seven earned runs to the Tigers on Tuesday in two innings, so he isn’t exactly riding high into his upcoming schedule.

 

Soon To Be A Great Schedule

 

Kevin Gausman (SF)   6/5 vs. CHC   6/10 @ WAS   6/15 vs. ARI

Fresh on the heels of six shutout innings against the Dodgers, Kevin Gausman is almost out of the woods when it comes to tough opponents. He will await the Cubs and they hold the sixth-best wOBA over the past week (eighth overall). The Nationals and Diamondbacks will come after that; Washington has posted the eighth-worst wOBA in the past seven days, and the Diamondbacks have lost 19 of their last 22.

 

Jake Arrieta (CHC)   6/4 @ SF   6/9 @ SD   6/14 @ NYM   6/19 vs. MIA

San Francisco remains the surprise team atop the NL West and Jake Arrieta will get them while they are still hot. He will get the Padres immediately after that, as their full slate of recently-inked contracts will seek to claim divisional supremacy. Arrieta will have the Mets after that and their wRC+ may cool back down to their season figure by then (17th), and the Marlins at Wrigley will push Arrieta to a desirable schedule toward the end of June. Miami’s wRC+ ranks 24th.

 

Julio Urias (LAD)   6/4 @ ATL   6/9 @ PIT   6/14 vs. PHI   6/19 @ ARI

Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Arizona have wRC+ figures that rank 20th or worse. Atlanta will stand in Julio Urias’ way in the meantime with the 12th-best wRC+ and it could pose an even greater challenge as Urias doesn’t have great momentum right now. He just allowed six earned runs to the Giants on Saturday night, but a strong outing in Atlanta could put him on a premier track.

 

Kwang Hyun Kim (STL)   6/4 vs. CIN   6/9 vs. CLE   6/14 vs. MIA

The Reds have a top-10 wRC+ and wOBA, while Cleveland and Miami are in the bottom 10 in each. Opponent strength has not exactly been an indicator for Kwang Hyun Kim’s performance, however, as he allowed four runs to the D-Backs in his last start (5 IP) and held the White Sox to three before that (5 2/3 IP).

 

Soon To Be A Bad Schedule

 

Zack Wheeler (PHI)   6/4 vs. WAS   6/9 vs. ATL   6/14 @ LAD

The Dodgers are on the horizon and Atlanta will bridge Zack Wheeler’s schedule from an easier challenge in the Nationals to one of the best lineups out there. Wheeler has thrown seven innings or more in each of his last three starts and is fresh off some solid outings against Tampa Bay and Boston, so he could be primed for any lineup he’s handed. He pitched seven shutout innings against Atlanta in his first start this year.

 

Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire | Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Justin Wick

Justin Wick pitched collegiately at Creighton University (2018-19; B.A. Journalism) and South Mountain Community College (2016-17), and is a three-year veteran of the Northwoods League with the St. Cloud Rox (2018-20). He also has a Tommy John scar on his left elbow. More of his analysis can be found on Purple Row covering the Colorado Rockies, and on Twitter @justwick.

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